How long before SNG ROI is reliable?

[Rolen]

I currently have 591 tourneys logged through Hood's marvelous spreadsheet. Is that too little to be making any long-term assumptions about my ability?

[lorinda]

Is that too little to be making any long-term assumptions about my ability?

If your ROI is over 10% or so, you're probably a winning player.
Your ITM should be starting to settle down.

Lori

[johnnybeef]

to that end, how many sngs do you figure before variance is ironed out so to say?

[valenzuela]

There was a cool spreadsheet who disapearred /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Hood]

You have to take in to account that there's bugs in the software reporting your ROI incorrectly :P

[Rolen]

Hm, yes, I did wonder if it was the programs fault when it said my ROI was -506%

Joking, joking. Right now it's 27%, thx for the response Lori, I feel all fuzzy now.

[Mr_J]

"to that end, how many sngs do you figure before variance is ironed out so to say?"

You mean before you can make a reasonable estimate of ROI??? I'd guess a few thou.

[SuitedSixes]

AleoMagus (who should be on a milk carton, BTW*) made a neat simulation where you could input your ROI and ITM and then conduct simulations of 500 SNGs and see what different results you could expect. You can find it in this thread. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1691666&page=&view=&s b=5&o=)

*Anybody know what happened to him? He hasn't posted since 2/17.