Bad Move?

[TruFloridaGator]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1763)
BB (t1812)
Hero (t945)
MP (t2320)
Button (t1160)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t945 (All-In)</font>, MP calls t945, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (t2490) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2490) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2490) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2490

[Voltron87]

If you're the BB next it's good.

[nuclear500]

It wasn't horrible, but really with your stack and the blinds hitting you next to take away 64% of your stack if you don't catch it was logical. I'm guessing he called with a bigger Ace, maybe a medium pair or KQs - it was a significant chunk of his stack to call off on something marginal.

[Cleveland Guy]

Standard

[jcm4ccc]

A2 is a terrible hand to make this play, because of the hands that are likely to call you will dominate you and the fact that you have four people left to act. I'd rather have 86o than A2o in this situation.

I would take my chances with the BB.

[Voltron87]

Taking a BB is nuts here. Nuts. You still have some decent fold equity. If you wait, you will have 500ish chips left, which leaves you dead in the water. What can you possible do with 500 chips? You have one more hand left if you fold to catch a raceable hand.

Your fold equity now vastly compensates for the weakness of A2. Which isn't even that bad 5 handed.

And if only hands that dominate you are calling here (pps, aces), that is actually an argument for pushing since you will go uncalled much of the time.

[Seadood228]

That's being a little harsh don't you think? Especially because the reasoning behind the play is very sound. Hero has very little fold equity, and contrary to what some people think, he will have decent FE when he takes his blind (especially given the size of his stack). The blinds will get folded around next hand more than you think.

Still, it's 5 handed and A2 figures to be best hand a decent percent of the time. I don't have the exact #s, but I think nobody will have an ace around 60% of the time if you have one. Add in the number of times someone will have a pair (about 1/4) and it looks like you'll be up against a dominant calling hand 65% of the time...

Wow, it's a lot closer than I thought.. I might fold this from now on!!

[EDIT] My memorty is gut! Looks like about 58% of the time you won't be up against an ace. Factor in the % of times you'll be up against a pair, and this becomes a very close decision IMO. I'm actually liking the fold much more here, taking my chances at a possible 50/50 over being a likely dog.

If this were on the bubble, I'd lean much more towards a push, because your odds of a walk the next hand are greatly reduced.

Folding here is in no way terrible IMO.

[Voltron87]

5 handed you are up against another ace 58%? Run that through the supercomputer again.

If you take a blind you lose all your FE. You're saying that right now the hero has a low FE but he will also have FE if he folds. Read your post again, it makes no sense.

[curtains]

This is a very clear allin.

[Seadood228]

Sorry I didn't show the math.

58% of the time nobody will have an ace 5 handed, meaning 42% of the time someone will.

25% of the time someone will have a pair.

42+25=

67% someone will have a pair or an ace.

And when I'm talking about folding equity on the next hand, I'm referring to short-stack equity. Because our hero is pot committed, his opponents range of stealing hands will naturally be more selective, allowing for a greater chance of the next hand being folded around. Even if our hero is raised on his BB, he usually won't be that much of a dog.

And if it's folded around next hand, our hero will have a few more chances to pick a spot. Plus he'll still have some folding equity given the others stacks.

So the bottom line is, do you want to take the chance now when you are going to get called ~65% of the time as a big dog, or wait till the next hand where a decent % of the time it'll get folded to you + you'll probably be less of a dog if you are moved in?

At first I voted push, but now I prefer a fold..

[Voltron87]

This is a joke. You can't fold here. I'm done replying.

[Misfire]

Maybe I'm just a n00b, but A) isn't the chipstack desperate enough to push w/ an Ace, and B) wouldn't it be better to do it here and at least have the chance to steal a BB and SB rather than just a SB next hand?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I'm just a n00b, but A) isn't the chipstack desperate enough to push w/ an Ace, and B) wouldn't it be better to do it here and at least have the chance to steal a BB and SB rather than just a SB next hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

point one: i agree with curtains, and others. this is about as clear of a push as there is.

point two: chipstack is desperate enough to push with hhmm..... probably any two cards.

citanul

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm actually liking the fold much more here, taking my chances at a possible 50/50 over being a likely dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are your chances of being 50/50 next hand?

[microbet]

Good move. When counting how often you get called by a dominating hand, don't forget A3-7 or so will fold a lot.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Good move. When counting how often you get called by a dominating hand, don't forget A3-7 or so will fold a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, it bears repeating every few days or so, because people apparently don't understand/remember it if you don't, but the opponents can't see your cards. thus, they don't automatically call only with hands that they should, and fold the ones they should. sometimes/often, they do exactly the opposite.

citanul

[curtains]

The next guy to act probably isnt going to call you if hes sitting there with A6o. There are a lot more factors in play than just pure math here. I really think this is a very easy allin.

[Seadood228]

Citanul wrote:
[ QUOTE ]
yes, it bears repeating every few days or so, because people apparently don't understand/remember it if you don't, but the opponents can't see your cards. thus, they don't automatically call only with hands that they should, and fold the ones they should. sometimes/often, they do exactly the opposite.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't argue with any of this.

I do however, think that the hero's opponents will be more apt to call with a wider range of hands given the hero's chip stack and position. He's making the classic "This hand will probably be better than my next hand and I need to make a move UTG" play that everyone does in SNGs.

Citanul wrote:
[ QUOTE ]


point two: chipstack is desperate enough to push with hhmm..... probably any two cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again tough to dispute, but in this situation, I'd make an acception for a weak ace 5+ handed. There's a pretty good chance you'll get called as a 3/1 dog, and I don't think that'll be the case next hand.

Curtains wrote
[ QUOTE ]
The next guy to act probably isnt going to call you if hes sitting there with A6o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you played the &lt;$30s lately? /images/graemlins/smile.gif Perhaps I shouldn't have assumed the buyin, but I figured this was at the lower limits given the chipstacks. You'll get a call in the 5-30s quite often with A6o, from any position.

microbet wrote:
[ QUOTE ]
What are your chances of being 50/50 next hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well 50/50 may be pushing it a bit /images/graemlins/smile.gif I don't think you'll be a 3/1 dog though, and that's only if you are raised next hand.. which is a big if IMO.

The funny thing about this hand was that I thought it was clear push until I did the math. Some posters whom I respect very much have argued against, but I'm still not so sure I'm convinced. I think it's close, despite what others have said. Face it, I'm right and you all are wrong. I am the best poker player in the world and you are all just a bunch of idiots. Over the past 4 billion 215s my ROI is 82%.

DON'T YOU SEE WHY??? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[curtains]

I play more than enough 30s to know that A6 is not going to routinely call you here. I'm actually playing a ton of them now trying to learn the ancient art of 8 tabling.

[curtains]

Also note that you will steal the blinds here sometimes too, which is an unbelievable success. You will steal them a lot more often than you think.

[Seadood228]

Yeah but do you beat the 30s for a 105% ROI like I do? Didn't think so... and I have a 13 SNG block to back this up..

I give up.. uncle.. you guys win. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I'm gonna overcompensate and push with A2o UTG on every level now...

[EDIT]That last line was in no way meant to sound sarcastic.. Your points are valid.