River Statistic

[Benman]

When I bet/raise on the river, and then go to a showdown, I win $ 72.33% of the time. Something tells me this number is too high, and that I'm missing some profitable value bets. Obviously I can't set out to correct this figure by betting indiscriminately, but perhaps I need to bet more. Does anyone else think this number is too high? Just right? Would 50.1% be the ideal figure? Something higher? (It's a statistic in the More Detail page of Game Summary on Poker Tracker).

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
When I bet/raise on the river, and then go to a showdown, I win $ 72.33% of the time. Something tells me this number is too high, and that I'm missing some profitable value bets. Obviously I can't set out to correct this figure by betting indiscriminately, but perhaps I need to bet more. Does anyone else think this number is too high? Just right? Would 50.1% be the ideal figure? Something higher? (It's a statistic in the More Detail page of Game Summary on Poker Tracker).

[/ QUOTE ]

I do not know what an appropriate number would be (other than mine is too high), but ...

If you were head's up, you should bet if you have the best hand about 55% of the times you are called (to hedge against being raised; depending on the opponent, etc.), or so I've read. If you have multiple opponents on the river, presumably that number would have to be higher. How much higher? That is the question. I have no answer.

edit: My (uninformed) guess is that if 72% is too high, it is not by a lot (at 2/4 - 5/10 on Party).

[chief444]

I don't know what my number for that is. But I'm curious now. If you have multiple opponents though the number should decrease, not increase. 72% or so intuitively seems quite high. I would expect most people, especially at first, to be higher than optimal with this percentage since value betting rivers isn't the easiest part of the game to learn and isn't something most focus on when they're first learning.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have multiple opponents on the river, presumably that number would have to be higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[chief444]

I just wanted to add that I think a discussion of what the optimal number for this is could be pretty interesting. Obviously 100% is really "optimal" since all the cards are out but since no one is a perfect hand reader it's less than that. I'm thinking somewhere around 60% may be, but that's without any serious thought. When you figure there are times with multiple opponents that you should bet/raise when you're maybe only 35-40% sure you have the best hand and then on the other extreme there are occasions when you are 100% sure. But I think the majority of situations are closer to 50% than 100%. I'll have to check my stats when I get home because I am curious now.

[Octopus]

OK, I have been thinking about it. My value betting standards (whatever that means) go up with more opponents, but that is because it takes a better hand on average to win. So it could be that expecting to win 55% of the times SOMEONE calls is still a reasonable number. I do not think it is lower than that in any case. (Yes, both might call with worse hands, but then, a raise is also more likely.) Hmmm. I will have to think about it some more.

For whatever it is worth, I have just been looking through my data and the players I respect have numbers between 69% and 81%. I look forward to hearing some others' stats.

[Benman]

I'm glad I posted this because it hadn't even ocurred to me that a number below 50 might be OK in cases of multiple opponents. That makes me think even more that my 72% is too high.

[ErrantNight]

mine is 77.29 and I value bet pretty aggressively.

[27offsooot]

Isn't this question actually pretty basic for each situation (the EV for each river bet put in) but impossible to actually answer for the sum of all your hands. You would need to factor in whether you will call a raise/ whether a c/r or re-raise could be a bluff/ whether your opponent will call HU and these same factors as well as the number of opponents that will call a river bet/ chance u might fold a better hand but get called by a worse one in multi-way pots.
Assuming you fold to a raise/ c-r and are called 100% of the time, it's 50.0001 % HU. But you would need to factor in opponents calling %.

I don't really think that there is a way to determine an ideal percentage here especially in multi-way pots.

[27offsooot]

Similarly, I think that the % is very opponent dependent. Against a calling station, I would guess that this number should be very close to 50%, but against a rock who will likely only call u with better hands, it should be much closer to 100%.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
When I bet/raise on the river, and then go to a showdown , I win $ 72.33% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forget my comment about % against opponents as it doesn't matter when you go to showdown. It would matter though if u look at winning % and river bets w/o selecting for bets that are called.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
Similarly, I think that the % is very opponent dependent. Against a calling station, I would guess that this number should be very close to 50%, but against a rock who will likely only call u with better hands, it should be much closer to 100%.

[/ QUOTE ]

The statistic actually takes that into account. It is how often did you win having bet (raised, c/r'd) AND saw the showdown. The range of hands that describes changes with the opponent. The target statistic doesn't (except as regards the possibility of being raised).

[imported_legoman]

I assume you're looking "Player Actions" and the WSD% on the river. I'm wondering what exactly it means. Because when I "Bet/Raise/Check-Raise", its 74%, but "Just Called" its 99%. This seems very counter-intuitive. Are my stats just that messed up or am I mis-interpreting the data?

edit: Oops, I'm suppsoed to look at W$SD% arent I? In that case, B/R/C-R is 80%, while Just Calling is 32%.
the Just Calling # seems low, but if you think about it, most of the time the pot size is at least 5 BB, so putting in 1 BB and taking in 5BB 1/3 of the time is still +EV. But should it be higher?

[Octopus]

You are looking at the Went to Showdown number, not the Won $ at Showdown number.

[ErrantNight]

make sure you're looking at the W$SD stat after betting/raising/check raising the river... not the W$SD in general...

for me, the former stat is 77.29, the latter 50.74

[chief444]

Mine is about 76%.

[Benman]

Yeah, I'm looking at a different statistic. Under "Player Actions", I'm looking at "W$SD%" on the River.

[Benman]

Yeah, I'm looking at the same one. My W$SD% generally is 51.33%. At the river when betting/raising/check-raising its 72.33%. Yours is pretty high just like mine. I'm not sure we're wrong, I just wonder why it wouldn't be more optimal to be closer to 50.00001%. By being over 70, aren't we by definition missing some profitable value bets?

[Benman]

I think your just calling W$SD% of 32% is marginally too high. Mine's 29.24%, and I wonder if it's a little too high also. As you point out, most pots that you get around to calling on the river are bigger than 3BB. How to "correct" these numbers is where it gets tough, cause you can't just artificially start calling more on the river. I guess you just have to be on the lookout for marginal situations where you once would have reluctantly folded and now you suck it up and make a crying call, reasoning that you'll make a slight profit long run.

[ESCaspian]

just to add one: mine are 75.29% and 47.95% (I think the latter is a little low but I'm working on it)

[ErrantNight]

if i'm correct, this statistic is the number of times you bet and are called and show down. missing value bets won't even show up in this statistic... they're simply not represented.

this percentage is #hands won when bet/raised/checkraised & called on the river divided by total number of #handsbet/raised/checkraised & called on the river... hands checked through and/or check/called on the river don't show up.

[ErrantNight]

yeah, you're not making enough crying calls on the river...

which will affect the latter statistic but not the former

[imported_legoman]

[ QUOTE ]
just to add one: mine are 75.29% and 47.95% (I think the latter is a little low but I'm working on it)

[/ QUOTE ]
The latter is a little HIGH. If the pot is 5BB, then that percentage should be around 25% or so. 48% means that a) you're not aggressive enough on the river or b) not enough crying calls.

[ErrantNight]

the latter refers to your w$sd which should be around 50. i'm not sure what stat you're looking at, but it's not the one he was referring to.