Jamming with an open ended [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

ThePenguin

03-22-2005, 03:19 PM

Es bueno?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB folds.

River: (16.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero folds, UTG 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

zram21

03-22-2005, 03:21 PM

Even with 3 limpers I am not sold on the pre-flop call. Post-flop looks good.

Tim H

03-22-2005, 03:24 PM

if your on the button and are gonna call PF wouldn't this be a better raise?

Fat Nicky

03-22-2005, 03:24 PM

I like it the whole way through.

ckessel

03-22-2005, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even with 3 limpers I am not sold on the pre-flop call. Post-flop looks good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why on earth not? Not playing that from the button with 3 limpers seems way too tight.

Fat Nicky

03-22-2005, 03:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if your on the button and are gonna call PF wouldn't this be a better raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, with previous limpers, you don't want to pay 2 bets to see a flop w/QTo, even if you are the raiser. With 1 limper, then a raise isn't so bad...

crunchy1

03-22-2005, 03:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even with 3 limpers I am not sold on the pre-flop call. Post-flop looks good.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding right? Are you advocating folding or raising?

Penguin -

You need to cap the flop only on hands where you hit the straight on the turn. Otherwise when you don't hit the straight you lose less money just calling.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Tim H

03-22-2005, 03:32 PM

my thinking is you are either dumping the flop or jamming.

You are gonna lose players on the flop since you will probably be in a bidding/jamming war. Might as well either:
A) create a larger amount of dead money PF or
B) maybe tie people to the pot so they are calling 2nd pairs to only fold the river

<edit> thinking further I am an idiot: you open yourself to a reraise which would be bad

zram21

03-22-2005, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even with 3 limpers I am not sold on the pre-flop call. Post-flop looks good.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding right? Are you advocating folding or raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have dumped this pre-flop. A call may be correct, but it is marginal at best. A read on the opponents would help here, but what hands do you think your opponents would open with from UTG that QTo plays well against?

ThePenguin

03-22-2005, 03:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You need to cap the flop only on hands where you hit the straight on the turn. Otherwise when you don't hit the straight you lose less money just calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I think my biggest leak is not being able to predict when my draws hit. I keep pumping money into the pot and then... nothing. I have gotten better though. Just a month ago I had to chalk it up to chance. Now I can predict with 50% accuracy. Soon I hope to be up to 65% I'm also working on hitting two-pair with rags in EP. Practice makes perfect

crunchy1

03-22-2005, 05:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A call may be correct, but it is marginal at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is way off. From a purely equity standpoint a call may be close. With no reads I think you have an unquestionable edge.

But the main factor here is your favorable position. With a minimum 4 opponents (likely 5 if the SB completes for 1/2SB) you're missing out on a money maker by dumping this hand PF.

This is an autocall in this situation.

ckessel

03-22-2005, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even with 3 limpers I am not sold on the pre-flop call. Post-flop looks good.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding right? Are you advocating folding or raising?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have dumped this pre-flop. A call may be correct, but it is marginal at best. A read on the opponents would help here, but what hands do you think your opponents would open with from UTG that QTo plays well against?

[/ QUOTE ]

In 3/6, many people call with just about anything suited or with an ace, or connected, or tiny pocket pairs, or...

27offsooot

03-22-2005, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Es bueno?

[/ QUOTE ]

El standardo.

MisterKing

03-22-2005, 05:27 PM

I like it the whole way. You probably won't get paid off too well on the river after flat-calling the turn, as your hand seems fairly obvious at that point. Nonetheless, the pot is laying fantastic odds, and you clearly have an equity edge against your limper opponents... even if one of them has a set (since none of the cards that help you pair the board). If there were two of the same soot on the flop, I'd play this differently, however...

QT is a clear limp OTB pre-flop in an unraised pot here, by the way.

MisterKing

03-22-2005, 05:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
my thinking is you are either dumping the flop or jamming.

You are gonna lose players on the flop since you will probably be in a bidding/jamming war. Might as well either:
A) create a larger amount of dead money PF or
B) maybe tie people to the pot so they are calling 2nd pairs to only fold the river

<edit> thinking further I am an idiot: you open yourself to a reraise which would be bad

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is being re-raised bad? No less than FOUR opponents have voluntarily put $$ in on the flop, meaning they're very likely to call if its one or two more back to them after a raise. Even if they don't call, you've increased your equity by knocking them out and captured their dead bets in the pot. Raise 'til the cows come home!!

Tim H

03-22-2005, 05:49 PM

after thinking about it, I wouldn't want the BB to reraise me to try and force the limpers to call 2 bets cold or fold.

Although that wouldn't be too bad either to be isolated against BB in position, just not as profitable

CallMeIshmael

03-22-2005, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]

B) maybe tie people to the pot so they are calling 2nd pairs to only fold the river

[/ QUOTE ]

I was under the impression that you want to 'tie a player to a pot' when you have a hand that could possibly flop someone drawing dead.

Ie, 66 or 98s. Where if you hit your flop, they will continue drawing to their overcard type hands only to find that they were dead to rights.

Also, a raise preflop gets, say, on average an 10.5sb pot (5 way plus a sb fold). Do you want the person with second pair to call your flop bet? I sure dont. But he will. I probably won't want him to call my turn bet with second pair either, but he will. I would, however, want him to call my river bet with second pair. And he probably will.

BTW, I like the hand as it was played all the way.

colgin

03-22-2005, 06:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Es bueno?

[/ QUOTE ]

Si, Si! Perfecto.

ThePenguin

03-22-2005, 08:50 PM

Just for sh*ts and giggles the results for this hand were amazing given how it was played. UTG shows AA for aces full, and UTG+1 shows JJ for jacks full.

UseThePeenEnd

03-23-2005, 03:29 AM

A lovely hand, muy bonita.

But FWIW, I filtered QTo on the button in unraised pots. My database is only 32K hands or I would have extracted further data versus various # of limpers. It was only 21 hands, and was -EV. Total of ALL QTo, no raise on the table, all positions (mostly blinds) were +EV 0.04/100 (250 hands). Insert standard sample size disclaimer here.

I just do not fool with QTo much anymore. With 4+ limpers I tend to limp in late position as suggested in HPFAP, but I throw it out even then when a tight player limps UTG. Its not unusual for AQ/KQ and a lot of hands with a ten that outkick your Q limp at loose tables. It just doesnt look +EV in my hand, even when pokerstove shows me a few percent positive equity. Only if the table is crowded with hapless callers am I pushing this confidently postflop without hitting it pretty hard. I'm willing to be convinced, but I think the convincing will require me being a really strong player first...

admiralfluff

03-23-2005, 03:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But FWIW, I filtered QTo on the button in unraised pots. My database is only 32K hands or I would have extracted further data versus various # of limpers. It was only 21 hands, and was -EV. Total of ALL QTo, no raise on the table, all positions (mostly blinds) were +EV 0.04/100 (250 hands). Insert standard sample size disclaimer here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This gets more than a standard sample size disclaimer. Trying to make an EV estimation given 250 instances, let alone 21, is ludonkcris. People are constanlty arguing about whether it takes 100k+ or 400k+ hands to get a reasonable measure of long term winrate. I ALWAYS play QTo here, unless I have specific player reads (like 3 limping rocks) that say I'm likely dominated. I don't know about the rest of you, but I try and play against the dumbest folk I can find, and QTo on the button with 3 limpers is a pretty damn sexy call for me.

LinusKS

03-23-2005, 05:42 AM

I hope one of you can explain what I'm missing.

I understand Hero's got 1:4 equity against 5 players, meaning he makes a (small) profit on the flop bet, assuming everyone calls.

When the BB folds and the UTG 3-bets, however, the cap seems to serve no purpose at all - he's getting 1:4 money on a 1:4 shot.

The net result of all the flop betting, is that the hero pays 4 sb's to increase the pot by one sb over 20, for the one out of five times that he hits.

He increases his EV by a fraction of an sb, but he also increases his variance, and quite likely losses back that fraction of an sb back to the rake.

What am I missing?

BreakEvenPlayer

03-23-2005, 05:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
the cap seems to serve no purpose at all

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the times that it gets checked to you on the turn and you get a free card? Yes, the free card tactic is usually something totally unnecessary in SS games but this would be a perfect place for it.

Muy bien penguin.

admiralfluff

03-23-2005, 07:18 AM

There's more to it than the free card. Hero's equity here is not 20% (1:4). If me assume he always sees the river, he gets 2 chances to hit his straight. Lets say worst case when he hits on both turn and river, he splits the pot, and 10% of the time he hits on turn or river, he loses to a boat. In this worst case, his equity would be:

(.17*(1-.15)+(1-.17)*.174)*.9+.5*.17*.15 = .27

So worst case, he wins this pot 27% of the time at showdown, most cases assume 30%. 27% is a 1:2.66 in odds. So he puts in 4SBs to win 16SBs 27% of the time, which is 4.32 SBs, or 30% of the time (losing to boat rarely) for 4.8 SBs. Either way, the cap is significantly +EV.

I think your error here is that you were considering odds of making your hand on the next card, which you would use for justifying a call based on pot odds. When you want to make an equity based raise, the size of the pot has nothing to do with it, you must consider the total increase to the pot, the cost to you of that increase, and your overall chances of winning the hand. Hope this helped, and someone please correct me if my math was messed up.

masonx

03-23-2005, 07:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like it the whole way through.

[/ QUOTE ]

QTo is a def. call there whoever said fold is weak

PokerBob

03-23-2005, 08:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Es bueno?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB folds.

River: (16.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero folds, UTG 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect.

PokerBob

03-23-2005, 08:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but he also increases his variance

[/ QUOTE ]

This should never, ever, ever, influence your decision-making process. Ever. Ever.

jason_t

03-23-2005, 08:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but he also increases his variance

[/ QUOTE ]

This should never, ever, ever, influence your decision-making process. Ever. Ever

[/ QUOTE ]

Never ever.

Otherwise, it was a beautiful hand.

RustedCorpse

03-23-2005, 08:17 AM

Muy Bueno!

(Preflop I may fold, just because people outplay my farking butt after the flop, but then again there are a lot of mooks in this hand)

masonx

03-23-2005, 08:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Es bueno?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (5 players)
SB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Hero calls, SB folds.

River: (16.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero folds, UTG 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I wouldn't play it any other way.

LinusKS

03-23-2005, 02:34 PM

BreakEven: Well, in this case, he paid 3 sb's for his free, card, and then paid for it again on the turn. Which is the problem with the free card play - it only saves you one-half a bb when it works, and it doesn't always work. When it doesn't work, you wind up paying one and a half bets for it (and in this case, two and a half).

admiral: You said, "So he puts in 4SBs to win 16SBs 27% of the time, which is 4.32 SBs, or 30% of the time (losing to boat rarely) for 4.8 SBs. Either way, the cap is significantly +EV. But if you're going to count your odds of catching on either the turn or the river, you need to calculate the cost of calling a turn bet, as well.

The difference between calling and raising is that when you're calling you get to count everything that's in the pot; when you're raising, only the additional money your raise brings in counts, in terms of calculating the ev of the raise.

I realize there's other reasons to raise as well, of course. Sometimes you can shut out people who otherwise might beat you even if you hit. That doesn't seem to be the case here, though.

PokerBob: "This should never, ever, ever, influence your decision-making process. Ever. Ever."

Why?