Fold this full house?

[Alchemist]

Had an intriguing hand last night. I still think I made the right play but not at all sure.

Party Poker (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">Fold, fold, 3 callers, fold, Hero raises, SB folds, 4 callers</font>.

A premium hand with position and a lot of limpers. Doesn't get much better than this. Now I just need a favorable flop.

Flop: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players): 5 BB</font>
BB bets, MP1 raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Well is this a good or bad flop for me? I sure don't like all the action in front of me, especially from the first two positions. I might be beat high already, but I call to see what the turn brings since I still have great backdoor low draws just in case.

Turn: 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players): 6.5 BB</font>
BB bets, MP1 raises, Hero folds, BB calls.

Bad card. Low is now impossible for me and with another bet/raise in front of me, I figure I'm beat by at least one of them with kings full and another card to come in case they're not already.

River: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players): 10.5 BB</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks.

Final Pot: BB shows [ Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif ] three of a kind, kings.
MP1 shows [ 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif ] three of a kind, kings.
MP1 wins half the pot with three of a kind, kings.
BB wins half the pot with three of a kind, kings.
There was no qualifying low hand.

Analysis: I ran a simulation with the hands.
AT THE FLOP:
I was a 68% favorite to win high vs. 31% for AKQJ and 11% for AK44.

Against two random hands holding AKxx:
A233: 47%
AKxx: 26.5% each

Worst case scenario with maximum live full house cards:
A233: 28.4%
KQJ7: 37.8%
KT98: 33.8%

Maybe a bad laydown after all? I'm stumped.

[Ironman]

Hi Alchemist,

You are probably going to get a lot of people that jump all over this wondering how you could lay this down...but I would lay it down in a second. This is the kind of hand that can really get you in trouble post flop.

The question you have to ask yourself is, "are the guys that are betting out after the flop the kind of guys that might be holding A 3 K x or worse, something like J Q K K?"

I like seeing the turn because you could grab the low and back into the high for 1 small bet.

When the two comes...I throw it away.

What do your notes say on these people.

Would they bet out if they really held a monster or would they slow play it. My guess is slow play it, so they probably only have three kings at this point. When the 2 comes on the turn, that looks like a boat if it wasn't already made.

Good luck.

Dave Decker

[bodie]

Hi,

First I have to say that, even though you had a nice starting hand, when you raised you essentially told everyone that you most likely held A, A or A,2.
I don't really like personally for everyone to *know* why I raise, or what I have.
Anyway -
the raise by MP1 after the flop would indicate more that he has a drawing hand than that he has a monster made hand. Of course you felt vulnerable with the low full house - but it still was a full house and as such I think not folding is justified.
If the other two players already had the nut boat they would have been more likely to slow play it than to raise to get other drawing hands out. Although, since they both knew you possibly had two Aces, they would want to raise you out so you couldn't pick up an Ace and get the nut boat on the turn or river.

It's a tough position to be in because you hate to throw money away with a weak full house, but your pot odds were okay to call. You wouldn't want to pay to *draw* to that hand, but since it was already made it was worth seeing.
You might have thought of reraising to see what they did then - or if you hadn't folded, betting on the river when they both checked and they hadn't gotten their cards.

[Yads]

I'd fold the flop. That flop missed you bad. Sure you have a backdoor low and a couple of backdoor flushes which may or may not be good. There's no way I'm taking one off the flop for one bet and especially not when it's 2 cold.

[gergery]

Yes, bad laydown.

What did you put them on after a bet then raise on the flop? I see only 4 basic holdings they can have

a) AA or other decent non-king holding. Possible on the flop as bluff, but pretty unlikely on turn after 2 others have stayed in. Cannot be dealt that many ways, AA is only 6 ways in 2 card holding for example.

b) KK. Very unlikely. Not only is there only 1 way this can be dealt but many players would slowplay this, and even if one holds this, what can the other one be betting/raising with on turn with 2 opponents still in with all the 3’s and K’s now gone?

c) K3. Unlikely, since you have 2 of the 3’s. Only 2 ways this can be dealt in 2-card holding.

d) Kx. Very likely. Can be dealt ~90 ways in a 2-card holding. Would make sense with betting as both K’s would not want backdoor draws to stay in cheap.

So, if both opponents have Kx, should you stay in? Yes. As your numbers show, you range from a 28% to 68% favorite. But if you make your decision at the flop that you will go to the river no matter what, then on this particular hand, you put in 2 BB bets (2 sb on flop, 1 on turn) into what became a 10.5BB pot, or ~19% of the money, when your equity in the hand was 28-68% -- bad fold. Even if the river had been 2-bet again, you’d have put in 4 BB into a 16.5BB pot – your equity was still higher.

Even if one of them hits their boat, unless the other does as well, it is unlikely to be capped, so you should still see a relatively cheap river.

Finally, your opponents are not playing random hands. If they hold a K, it is much more likely that they will also hold AQJT24, and much less likely they hold 56789. So some outs are likely to be in the other’s hand. And if they have a pair, that cuts their boat outs from 9 to 5 and pairs are frequently dealt. So your chances of winning this hand at showdown is much more likely to be ~50-60% than it is to be 28%.

--Greg

[Alchemist]

The hand was from a typical Party low limit table. I figured is someone had the goods, they're going to blast away at the pot.
My thought process during the hand:

A bet and reraise in early positions tell me the kings are out. Possibly even K3. One of them is the big blind who could have almost anything (although he did call a reraise PF). I could be way behind already. I like the idea of 3-betting here to get a better idea of where I stand. I'm in position but what if I'm bet into again on the turn?

Turn puts out a second low card. Again it's two bets to me. Now if I still have the best hand, I might only be playing for half the pot anyways. I feel uneasy calling here and the BB can still reraise.

If I stay in, I feel no matter what the river is, I'm likely facing 2 bets again with a low full house. (My stomach did sink when I saw the river go check-check).

I was very surprised to see the results of my sims and how much of an edge I had over two Kxxx hands. The way I saw it, only one of my two opponents had to pair up another of their cards with the board and I'm beat. Although MP1 got a great turn card holding KA44 with a KK23 board, further justifying the raise.

Bottom line: pot odds indicate it's at least worth riding out the hand?

[lostinthought]

I play this hand the same way and think its fine..