Is This a Bad Chase?

[nokona13]

Edit: I want advice on the flop here and on proposed line if I hit on the turn and your advice was to call the flop. Two cases: make the straight with a spade, and with another suit. I admit the turn chase was poor and I was calling cause I was pissed about a bad beat from another game, if I remember right...


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t845)
SB (t785)
Hero (t785)
UTG (t785)
UTG+1 (t770)
UTG+2 (t1000)
MP1 (t1055)
MP2 (t790)
MP3 (t440)
CO (t745)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, MP1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls t15, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t75) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets t45</font>, MP1 calls t45, MP3 folds, SB folds, Hero calls t45.

Turn: (t210) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t100</font>, Hero calls t100, UTG+2 folds.

River: (t410) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t250</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t660

[Apathy]

Check fold flop, failing that, check fold turn.

Don't run huge bluffs early in SNGs without a great read on an opponent, and I mean GREAT.

[nokona13]

Okay, I just threw in the possible push anyway on the turn as I was writing this. I didn't actually consider it.

But seriously check/fold the flop? I have to put in 45 to a 165 pot, giving me almost 4:1 just in pot odds for my OESD. I know it's easy to overvalue OESD's, as I clearly did here on the turn, but I have to assume I can count on the implied c/r on the turn if I hit my straight to make the flop call profitable. I readily admit a poor call on the turn. Am I still wrong on the flop?

[BradleyT]

check folding the flop isn't right.

[shoeman]

I think I call the flop bet and fold the turn. If there was one more caller or I was closing the betting, I may consider calling the turn. (Probably not though) Under most circumstances I like to avoid bleeding too many chips on draws and opt to save them for the purpose of stealing blinds later.

[rickr]

My way of thinking early is: You only have 3 clean outs, the 3 non spade aces. Anything else and you have to be worried. The 6 isn't clean, so you need to discount it. So count it as 1. So 4 outs total. 47/4 or basically 12/1. You are getting 3.66/1 to play. Dump it without a great read. Also with 2 spades, even if you hit your straight on the turn, you have to worry about the river redraw. Much better places to make a play in my book.

Later,
Rick

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
My way of thinking early is: You only have 3 clean outs, the 3 non spade aces. Anything else and you have to be worried. The 6 isn't clean, so you need to discount it. So count it as 1. So 4 outs total. 47/4 or basically 12/1. You are getting 3.66/1 to play. Dump it without a great read. Also with 2 spades, even if you hit your straight on the turn, you have to worry about the river redraw. Much better places to make a play in my book.

Later,
Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

Why isn't the 6 (non-spade) clean? I'm giving myself 6-8 outs here...

[rickr]

The 6 of spades would give someone the flush, as would the ace of spades, so there's no way they are clean. The 6 also makes you the non nut straight, so none of the 6's are actually clean. The 8 on the board throws up a red flag. 57,67,47, anyone that got close to that flop is going to stay for the same implied odds you are, so you really need the nut straight to chase it. I'm talking about this early in a tourney. I would rather play this hand against a preflop raiser than a bunch of limpers. At least you can discount those hands listed above. There are 8 cards in the deck that make your straight. 2 of them also make someone a flush. Three of the others also could make someone a larger flush. So 3 clean, and 5 that have to be discounted. How much you discount them is up to you. Even if you only discount it by 2 and give yourself 6 clean outs, your getting 8 to 1 with a redraw to the flush if you hit on the turn. Still think your way better off waiting.

Later,
Rick

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
The 6 of spades would give someone the flush, as would the ace of spades, so there's no way they are clean. The 6 also makes you the non nut straight, so none of the 6's are actually clean. The 8 on the board throws up a red flag. 57,67,47, anyone that got close to that flop is going to stay for the same implied odds you are, so you really need the nut straight to chase it. I'm talking about this early in a tourney. I would rather play this hand against a preflop raiser than a bunch of limpers. At least you can discount those hands listed above. There are 8 cards in the deck that make your straight. 2 of them also make someone a flush. Three of the others also could make someone a larger flush. So 3 clean, and 5 that have to be discounted. How much you discount them is up to you. Even if you only discount it by 2 and give yourself 6 clean outs, your getting 8 to 1 with a redraw to the flush if you hit on the turn. Still think your way better off waiting.

Later,
Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

How do 47, 57, 67 make a straight on a 2368 board?

[nokona13]

[quote How do 47, 57, 67 make a straight on a 2368 board?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly.

Bradley, any thoughts on what to do if I hit my straight on a non-spade? I have trouble extracting money from people with flush draws on the board. Do you just charge and hope they call with the draw and miss or call with something worse? Or do you maybe check, hoping to c/r and accepting a flush draw might get a free card?

[adanthar]

Calling the flop is fine. Calling the turn is actually closer than you think; if you bet 200 on any river you hit you are going to be fine because he'll usually* pay you off.

*The reason it's not fine is because when the ace hits, you're screwed. This is why 65 on a flop of 843 is a much better hand.

[pokerlaw]

[ QUOTE ]
The 6 also makes you the non nut straight, so none of the 6's are actually clean. The 8 on the board throws up a red flag. 57,67,47,

[/ QUOTE ]

While i would still fold this bet - as i only count 6 outs (not the spades that fill the st8), giving ~6:1 odds to hit and ~3:1 odds to call - discounting the non spade 6's as outs is way too overcautious IMO.

[rickr]

They don't make the straight, but they open the board to a larger straight on the redraw. My thinking, and I could be wrong, but here goes. If an offsuit ace falls, you can bet hard enough to really charge anyone else trying to outdraw you, and besides pairing on the river, there's not alot of scary cards, so you can charge the sets and tptk on the river. What happens if a 6 falls. Yes you are going to bet it hard on the turn, but there are a lot more scary cards on the river that you have to deal with. With that in mind, I'm discounting the 6's some, because they change the way I play the hand. Does that make sense?

Later,
Rick

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
They don't make the straight, but they open the board to a larger straight on the redraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

The 97 or 75 that called a bet on an 832 board?

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking, and I could be wrong, but here goes. If an offsuit ace falls, you can bet hard enough to really charge anyone else trying to outdraw you,

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you can't, because it's an ace and then they'll fold their 8 and that'll suck because you have a straight.

You can bet enough to make them make a mistake without desperately trying to snatch the pot away from that guy drawing dead.

[nokona13]

Thanks adanthar. Great advice as usual.