How strong is this draw? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

TripleH68

03-22-2005, 01:33 PM

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

I get confused in these situations. Flop bettor is tight solid, button is slightly loose and very aggressive, especially with position. How do you proceed? Should I have bet the flop here?

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, CO calls, Button raises, Hero ?

chief444

03-22-2005, 01:35 PM

Call. I don't think a flop bet would be terrible but I don't mind the check either.

CMonkey

03-22-2005, 02:12 PM

Depends on your table image I would think, but in general I'd prefer checking. With an aggressive player on the button, the flop is not likely to be checked around and you want to try to keep people in this pot to get paid off when you catch. Betting out from the BB might scare off a caller or two.

You're getting 10.5:2 to call and MP3 and CO are probably going to toss in a second bet to make it 12.5:2. Even if you want to be a pessimist and say you only have 6 outs, this is a call.

Redeye

03-22-2005, 02:13 PM

I agree with chief here, I'm definately calling since your getting about 5:1 immediately with possibly more to follow. As far as betting out, I usually check here because I think the two flush can really affect my equity here, although you have enough callers where I think its probably not bad. With a lot less opponents, like 2 or maybe 3, I usually bet on a board like this because sometimes it takes down the pot on the flop.

mikeyvegas

03-22-2005, 02:28 PM

I check call any amount of bets here on the flop.

somapopper

03-22-2005, 02:34 PM

Seems like a pretty thin call to me. You're going to hit a 6 outer 1/8 times on the turn so we need 8 times 4(the current bet to us) dollars in the pot or 32 bucks. Even 12.5 small bets only gets us to 25. Sure, implied odds will get us over 32 on this hand, but the 7 doesn't even give us the nut straight, we've still gotta hope a heart doesn't fall on the river (and to a lesser extent the board doesn't pair) and, most important by far, we aren't closing the action! We could put in our 2 small bets only to see that it's 2 more small bets back to us. Sure, it's kinda close I guess, but I think this is an easy fold.

DemonDeac

03-22-2005, 03:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I check call any amount of bets here on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

that seems a little loose cuz he only has 6 outs cuz 2 of the 8 straight cards will make the flush, and thats not that great to see IMO.

TheHip41

03-22-2005, 03:06 PM

On this flop, your draw isn't 'that' strong. It's about average. You have 8 outs to complete a straight. 2 outs put 3 hearts on the board. You also have to account for the times you hit a non heart 7 on the turn, this will give any 8 or T a redraw to a higher straight.

All that said, I'd probably bet the flop so I wouldn't have to call 2 cold. With 6 in the pot, you have enough of this flop to stick around.

CMonkey

03-22-2005, 03:52 PM

But you're not always drawing to a 6-outer; it's a full 8 some portion of the time. T8 doesn't bother me; if MP3 or CO wants to draw to a gutshot, they're welcome to do so drawing thin. T8s in hearts (and to a lesser degree in diamonds) is a bit more troublesome, I guess. As for not closing the action, sure if two players are holding some combination of trips, crap two pair, or button decides to go crazy with A9, it could get expensive. But I'm worrying about T8s, 99, 66, 33, 96, 63, and 93 with 5 limpers seeing the flop who could have anything. MP3 could easily have nothing more than overcards or middle pair+overcard+backdoor flush draw, and button could be popping back with something like TPTK. It's not the strongest draw ever seen, but strong enough to call.

mikeyvegas

03-22-2005, 05:13 PM

I think it's bad to assume that everytime there are 2 cards of the same suit on a flop that a flush draw is out there.

rmarotti

03-22-2005, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's bad to assume that everytime there are 2 cards of the same suit on a flop that a flush draw is out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

TripleH68

03-22-2005, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's bad to assume that everytime there are 2 cards of the same suit on a flop that a flush draw is out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. What I am often thinking in these situations is "can I add to my chances of winning this pot by representing a flush draw?" In this hand I was ready to raise the flop until the aggro button beat me to it. I have him on a wide range of hands and ready to bet any heart if checked to on the turn.

private joker

03-22-2005, 05:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's bad to assume that everytime there are 2 cards of the same suit on a flop that a flush draw is out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. So the draw is somewhere between 8 and 6 outs. Let's give it 7 outs. The call is thin getting 5:1. I don't think folding is that bad.

pokerkai

03-22-2005, 05:36 PM

easy call

sthief09

03-22-2005, 05:47 PM

folding would be very bad

somapopper

03-22-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's bad to assume that everytime there are 2 cards of the same suit on a flop that a flush draw is out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. What I am often thinking in these situations is "can I add to my chances of winning this pot by representing a flush draw?" In this hand I was ready to raise the flop until the aggro button beat me to it. I have him on a wide range of hands and ready to bet any heart if checked to on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think you can win this hand without a showdown? 2/4 and 5 other players make me nervous about that, but if you can successfully bluff the flush with any consistancy that would definately turn this into a call for me.

(If this hand was reversed hero had made top pair and reraised the flop, wouldn't people be chiming in to say that this is a good move because it gives incorrect odds for the flush and st8 draws to call?)

Nick C

03-22-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's bad to assume that everytime there are 2 cards of the same suit on a flop that a flush draw is out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. So the draw is somewhere between 8 and 6 outs. Let's give it 7 outs. The call is thin getting 5:1. I don't think folding is that bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

We need to take into account that the pot is still multiway and there are two cards to come. The multiway nature of the pot does improve the odds we're getting but unfortunately does also increase the chances that there's a flush draw out there.

The straight will come in by the river without another heart also falling about 20 percent of the time. And the straight itself will hit a little under a third of the time.

I would cold-call, but I wouldn't be entirely happy about all the action. I like OESD's, but this one is kind of mediocre, as far as OESD's go.

Nick C

03-22-2005, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(If this hand was reversed hero had made top pair and reraised the flop, wouldn't people be chiming in to say that this is a good move because it gives incorrect odds for the flush and st8 draws to call?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Flush draws aren't going anywhere on the flop. They also have to be up against a very unfortunate set of circumstances (having a bigger flush draw also out there, for instance) not to have correct odds to stay in.

SA125

03-22-2005, 06:13 PM

Leading with your draws disguises the strength of your hand. As oppossed to when you call 2 cold back to you.

private joker

03-22-2005, 06:27 PM

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folding would be very bad

[/ QUOTE ]

Your argument is multi-layered, complex, assertive, and well thought-out. You changed my mind.

And by that, I mean WTF. Folding a 7-out draw getting 5:1 is mathematically NOT very bad. Even taking implied odds and redraws into consideration.

TripleH68

03-22-2005, 07:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

I get confused in these situations. Flop bettor is tight solid, button is slightly loose and very aggressive, especially with position. How do you proceed? Should I have bet the flop here?

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, CO calls, Button raises, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero folds, two folds, MP3 3-bets, CO folds, button calls.

Turn(HU/6.7BB) 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Uggh.

MP3 bets, button folds...

private joker

03-22-2005, 08:32 PM

I'm sure you're not being results oriented. This isn't a "very bad" fold.

sthief09

03-22-2005, 08:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
folding would be very bad

[/ QUOTE ]

Your argument is multi-layered, complex, assertive, and well thought-out. You changed my mind.

And by that, I mean WTF. Folding a 7-out draw getting 5:1 is mathematically NOT very bad. Even taking implied odds and redraws into consideration.

[/ QUOTE ]

since he's seeing the river ALWAYS, he's folding getting 5-1 on a 2 or 3-1 draw, without considering implied odds. yes, that's very bad. the very comes from the simplicity of it. don't fold two-card OESD's even on two-flush or paired boards. it's very bad because it's just something that shouldn't ever be done. I'm assuming you're saying 7, not 8 outs because of redraws and flush draws and stuff?

TripleH68

03-22-2005, 08:51 PM

Yeah. I am not being tainted by the results...which is why I put (funny) in the title. The truth is I did not want to fold and was not planning on it...

but got put on the spot figuring the numbers likely being stuck between two aggressive players/implied odds/redraws/etc in an unraised pot. phew.

private joker

03-22-2005, 09:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming you're saying 7, not 8 outs because of redraws and flush draws and stuff?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. As I explained in my first post.

[ QUOTE ]
don't fold two-card OESD's (even on two-flush or paired boards). it's very bad because it's just something that shouldn't ever be done.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is also false. A fellow 2+2er recently played this hand at Commmerce 9/18:

He has 54 in the BB. Flop is T76. 2+2er actually continues the hand against a bet and a raise. He admitted that he failed to see that the top end of his OESD gave any 9 a better straight. Why? Because he, like you, lives by the iron-clad creed that no OESD should be folded (obviously we're not talking about monotone flops). 7654. He has an OESD. What else is there to worry about? A lot.

An 8 came on the river and 2+2er saw the tragic result of his reverse implied odds if he hit his straight.

sthief09

03-22-2005, 09:49 PM

fair enough. how's "good" two-card OESD?

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Because he, like you, lives by the iron-clad creed that no OESD should be folded (obviously we're not talking about monotone flops)

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not fair. I'd make that fold if it's warranted. just because I didn't think of that situation when I posted doesn't mean I never fold a two-card OESD.

private joker

03-22-2005, 10:35 PM

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that's not fair.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the only way I can beat you in an argument. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

PokerBob

03-22-2005, 10:55 PM