88 level 2

[dfscott]

Am I weak to fold this river?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t760)
Hero (t880)
CO (t935)
Button (t755)
SB (t1870)
BB (t530)
UTG (t1370)
UTG+1 (t900)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t30, Hero calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t120) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t60</font>, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 calls t60.

Turn: (t240) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (t240) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t100</font>, Hero ???

[jah0550]

I fold this. I would put the villian on a weak king. There are also 3 overs out there, so I'd save your chips for a better opportunity.

[shoeman]

I think I'd have to fold this. Very little chance you are ahead here. 3 overs and a villian who suddenly wakes up on the river. If he is bluffing at the pot than he picked a good spot.

[pooh74]

would you call a nearly half pot bet on the river holding 82 with a K /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif board? There's not much difference here.

[poboys]

His blocking bet got ya. T60 screams draw or mid-pp to me on the flop, I'd either bet this a little harder, or take another small stab on the turn (another 1/2 pot bet). I think you lost this pot when you checked the turn, and you certainly have to fold on the river.

[betgo]

On the flop, I would probably check. If this is a $10 SNG, the play is way to loose to try to make a play at the pot here. Someone probably has a K or a 9. If you are going to bet the flop, make a bigger bet.

On the river, fold.

[rickr]

Why are you betting the flop? If you think you have the best hand, or position, Bet more, say 3/4 pot. If called be done with the hand. At this level people will call with any ace, any draw for a 1/2 pot bet. 1/2 pot screams weak, bluff me. It will cost you alot more to bet the turn again, so try and take it on the flop.

Later,
Rick

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I weak to fold this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, river fold is good.

I think the flop bet is questionable. Against two opponents, I'd take a stab at it most of the time. Against three or more, my default play would be to check unless I really think these guys are weak and unlikely to call unless they actually have a piece of the flop.

[beggars]

Betting the flop and checking the turn when a 6 comes off? You were probably beat all along and you played it that way. Good news is you can walk away without too much damage.

[Scuba Chuck]

I don't have any serious issues with your postflop play. It's your preflop play that is questionable IMO.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have any serious issues with your postflop play. It's your preflop play that is questionable IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

You prefer a raise to isolate the weak limper?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't have any serious issues with your postflop play. It's your preflop play that is questionable IMO.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



You prefer a raise to isolate the weak limper?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given our hero's current talent level, which I think is relevant to most of our readers here (No disrespect intended), I like the following moves in order.

1. Fold preflop
2. Raise preflop
3. Limp

If it were me, I'd fold this hand for sure in level 2. Much poker yet to play. This is a tough hand to play in this position. If I were going to limp, I'd only limp for set value, and I don't see any significant implied odds for me to be rewarded for my bet this early in the hand - only one limper. If there were more limpers, then the order above would change, significantly!

[curtains]

I wouldn't bet the flop here (I think I would against 2 opponents, so it must be close call). Also you definitely aren't weak folding your measly 88 on the river to 3 overcards.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have any serious issues with your postflop play. It's your preflop play that is questionable IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the limp. You are likely to get multiway action with fairly deep money to play for a set. Folding would be terrible.

Once you get two overcards, you should check/fold. The half pot bet in last position might be OK in a Step 5, as you might take the pot 1/3 of the time. In a $10 SNG, there are not a lot of bluffing opportunities early on, and I would avoid putting in many chips without a really strong hand.

Since you think hero is a bad player, should he fold everything but big pairs?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you think hero is a bad player, should he fold everything but big pairs?


[/ QUOTE ]

I really hate that you put words in my mouth. I think our hero is a learning player, and has a lot of skills. I never said he was a bad player. Furthermore, I also gave the opinion that I would fold this hand here, erego, using you're words, I am now calling myself a bad player. (I don't think I'm a great player tho.)

Read my post in it's full context please. I have no intent to ridicule or criticize a learning player.

The significant portion of my skill level is in preflop decisions. I have a very successful track record playing SNG's with just great preflop decision making abilities. The reason I fold this hand here is for the following reasons:

1) At the moment, there is not enough implied odds for this hand for me to play it purely for set value, IMO. I think I would need to net something like 250+ chips to make this a worthwhile play over the long term.
2) Our hero is not in good position to play this hand for any other postflop opportunities - especially if there will be callers behind him.
3) I don't recommend playing drawing hands in these tournaments unless you have "spare" chips.
4) Finally, the fish, especially on PP, will not give you any respect for your hand when you just limp in. For example, if the board came 732r. IMO, it would be likely that our hero has the best hand after the flop. If he were to make a potsized bet, I believe it would be called by hands with two live cards. Which makes the turn and river a difficult play when overcards come.

88 can be a trap hand, unless it's played for set value. There is not enough implied odds with one limper thus far. And, if your plan is to fold to any sort of raise behind you, then you're just leaking chips IMO.

Finally, if you understand the skill required to beating SNGs, you'd realize that this hand is an oh-hum hand in the grand scheme of things, unless it's a leak. Then it's a serious issue.

[BradleyT]

Folding 8's here is criminal.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding 8's here is criminal.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm interested in your thought process. Tell me why?

[betgo]

At this level, you will probably get other limpers to play the pot multiway. If the pot is raises and goes multiway, that is fine too. With loose players, you may be able to double up if you hit your set. If the flop comes 732, and you put in a pot sized bet and get called by 1 or 2 players with overcards, what is the problem?

[morgan180]

fold pre-flop

[BradleyT]

88 is an extremely easy hand to play postflop this early in a SnG and should easily show a LT profit.

Edit - although not if you bet it out with 2 overcards on the flop...

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
88 is an extremely easy hand to play postflop this early in a SnG and should easily show a LT profit.

Edit - although not if you bet it out with 2 overcards on the flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so you're playing for set value.

Out of curiosity, how do you play this hand if it's raised behind you?

Second of all, let's assume it's folded around, and SB completes, and BB checks, so that it's just the 4 of you. What do you think your implied odds are in this hand? If you play 8 hands this way, and you hit your set just once, and you're not getting your 250+ chips, then this is a leak IMO. That's why I only play smaller pairs when I can identify significant implied odds opportunities.

[betgo]

If someone else limps, I am limping (or in certain situation, such as often occur with shallow money, raising) with 88 almost all the time, but particularly in level 2 of a $10 SNG.

I agree that the flop bet was bad. However, if this player is going to misplay 88, he will misplay more difficult hands such as AK, AQ, suited connectors, and Axs. I can't see just folding everything because you don't know how to play it.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
At this level, you will probably get other limpers to play the pot multiway. If the pot is raises and goes multiway, that is fine too. With loose players, you may be able to double up if you hit your set. If the flop comes 732, and you put in a pot sized bet and get called by 1 or 2 players with overcards, what is the problem?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this thread could become a great discussion. Everyone knows my opinion. I'd like to hear some more.

It's interesting to hear so many of the more seasoned 2ers recommend playing this, and those that grew up with the "how to beat the party, $10+1" guide are more inclined to fold this hand (as stated in the guideline).

In general, I am very interested to hear how in the LT, this is a plus CEV play? For context, let's limit this discussion to STT's with buyins of $33 or less (800 starting chip count). Furthermore, for context, let's limit this to limping when first or second in the pot from early or middle position.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see just folding everything because you don't know how to play it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully you're able to see that is not my advice. If you're playing 88 for set value, I'm suggesting that this is a leak in the context of this current hand.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're playing 88 for set value, I'm suggesting that this is a leak in the context of this current hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it a leak to invest T30 to possible with T1000 or T1500 if the flop comes A8x?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is it a leak to invest T30 to possible with T1000 or T1500 if the flop comes A8x?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you're saying, can you rewrite?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Why is it a leak to invest T30 to possible with T1000 or T1500 if the flop comes A8x?



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you're saying, can you rewrite?


[/ QUOTE ]

Playing for a set can be worth more than you think against people who are willing to go allin with top pair.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Given our hero's current talent level, which I think is relevant to most of our readers here (No disrespect intended), I like the following moves in order.

1. Fold preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

no

[ QUOTE ]
If it were me, I'd fold this hand for sure in level 2. Much poker yet to play. This is a tough hand to play in this position.

[/ QUOTE ]

88 in LMP after 1 limper is worse than KQo in the BB to a raise? ...okay

[ QUOTE ]
If I were going to limp, I'd only limp for set value, and I don't see any significant implied odds for me to be rewarded for my bet this early in the hand - only one limper.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a Party $10 so frankly your implied odds if the flop gives someone a top pair in addition to your 8 is 'someone's stack' and it's not really close

[ QUOTE ]
1) At the moment, there is not enough implied odds for this hand for me to play it purely for set value, IMO. I think I would need to net something like 250+ chips to make this a worthwhile play over the long term.
2) Our hero is not in good position to play this hand for any other postflop opportunities - especially if there will be callers behind him.
3) I don't recommend playing drawing hands in these tournaments unless you have "spare" chips.
4) Finally, the fish, especially on PP, will not give you any respect for your hand when you just limp in. For example, if the board came 732r. IMO, it would be likely that our hero has the best hand after the flop. If he were to make a potsized bet, I believe it would be called by hands with two live cards. Which makes the turn and river a difficult play when overcards come.

[/ QUOTE ]

1)I play 22 in this spot for set value and make a decent profit, 88 is overkill
2)Oh no, not third out of a possible three, four or even, God forbid, five players
3)3% of your stack counts as 'spare'
4)oh no not an overpair liable to be called by overcards??? Huh?

Then Hero goes and proves you right in that he bets a multiway board with two overs on it and then asks if he was weak to fold. That's all well and good, but you can't go on playing well solely on PF calls. Even the fishpond at Party will get better than that over time, and frankly, Hero hopefully learned enough from his waste of about $1 of EV to not do that again 1000 tournaments later when he's playing for higher stakes. Fine, that's what these tourneys are for anyhow.

Anyway, if the sole difference between you folding 88 here and calling KQ there is that you have more chips, that's a leak.

[BradleyT]

If it's raised behind me - depending on the size of the raise I have to look closely at my implied odds. A raise also gives me a greater chance of stacking off on a 8Ax or 8Kx flop.

But when you limp you don't only have to hit a set to win. Flops like 662, 557, TT6, 974, etc.. often allow you to take it down on the flop assuming you have a clue how to play postflop - which is something that I think players in this forum need to focus more on.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is it a leak to invest T30 to possible with T1000 or T1500 if the flop comes A8x?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you're saying, can you rewrite?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's saying that there are a number of flops where your implied oddds are huge. A rainbow A 8 x flop can often lead to you taking someone's whole stack if they can't get away from their hand. You won't see these flops that often, but if you look at things in the long run you can make up the bets you're lacking in preflop pot odds.

Also, at the loose low level buyins, it's reasoanble to expect at least one of the players left to act behind you to limp in.

What to do when raised? I'll call a smallish raise and fold to bigger ones. If I call a raise and get a favorable flop, I'll get aggressive when I think it's appropriate instead of just playing for set value.

I don't have any good math, but my sense is that playing 88 in this position for set value against bad players is going to be +EV in the long run.

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Why is it a leak to invest T30 to possible with T1000 or T1500 if the flop comes A8x?



[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand what you're saying, can you rewrite?


[/ QUOTE ]

Playing for a set can be worth more than you think against people who are willing to go allin with top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I agree with this. I definitely respect Scuba and appreciate the advice he's given me. For me, as another 33 and under learning player, I have to disagree mainly with Scuba's rating of the difficulty of playing this post flop. If an 8 hits, you go hard, whether that's c/r if an aggro CO or button calls pf, or call of pot-ish bet in front, or check on uncoordinated board with checks in front, or bet to charge draws on a coordinated board that's checked.

As an example, I doulbed off a monkey last night with trip 7s to his AT top pair. I think you're VERY likely to make more thatn T250 on this hand if you hit the set and play it right. BTW, I'm check/folding every flop with overs, and proceeding with caution on under-flops.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, if the sole difference between you folding 88 here and calling KQ there is that you have more chips, that's a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm tough skinned, I don't mind the bashing...

FWIW, you'll find a lot of my current postflop play posts on here is for learning purposes, not because "I know it was correct." I still think there was something to learn, and play in that hand, but I do appreciate your thoughts and comments about the hand in particular. Feel free to bash away.

With regard to limping with 88 here. It has been my experience, that this had become a leak, and I plugged it up some time ago. So much has changed for me since my early days, particularly how to accumulate chips during levels 2-3 without having hands, and playing poker. But, that was not true back then. So perhaps I should be re-evaluating my preflop hands.

Regarding your assumption that the implied odds are someone's stack, that may very well be correct. Perhaps this is naive of me, but I fail to see how even fish are throwing their entire chip stack in the middle after they limp into the pot (unless they hit two pair). In contrast, I do see this much more often when it's been raised preflop.

OK, so let's consider some probabilities then.

1:8.5 hands your pocket pair completes to a set.

Now you have to hope that your opponent completes some sort of hand that will convince them that putting in their entire stack is worthwhile.

For this hand, you're also hoping that there are a few more limpers behind you, and not a single raise.

What are all the probabilities behind this? How often have you hit your set, and not gotten paid off? It seems to me that there is a strong underlying assumption here that hitting your set means getting paid off.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Second of all, let's assume it's folded around, and SB completes, and BB checks, so that it's just the 4 of you. What do you think your implied odds are in this hand? If you play 8 hands this way, and you hit your set just once, and you're not getting your 250+ chips, then this is a leak IMO. That's why I only play smaller pairs when I can identify significant implied odds opportunities.

[/ QUOTE ]

scuba, i love ya man, but lets get real....at the 11s and 22s, your opponenets make so many bad decisions that any hand played for a set (considering its deceptive nature) gets high implied odds. when you add to this the fact that limping encourages more limping (especially at these levels) your implied odds are more than good enough to sustain a limp and fold to a raise. furthermore, at this point in the sng, your objective is to avoid pots in which you figure to lose a lot of chips. t30 is not that big of a deal when confronted with the possibility of taking down a huge pot with a set.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to disagree mainly with Scuba's rating of the difficulty of playing this post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope no one's reading that I am suggesting that playing a pocket pair for set value is difficult to play post flop. In fact, it's quite the opposite, it's the easiest preflop hand to play post flop, IMO. A lot easier than KK, with an A-flop, and 4 along for the ride.

[ QUOTE ]
As an example, I doulbed off a monkey last night with trip 7s to his AT top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Results oriented. How often is our completed set not getting paid?

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Flops like 662, 557, TT6, 974, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you mean you should actually bet when you have a favorable flop????? cmon!!!!!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Results oriented. How often is our completed set not getting paid?

[/ QUOTE ]
Not often in level 2 of a $10 SNG.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
t30 is not that big of a deal when confronted with the possibility of taking down a huge pot with a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity, are you folding this hand on level 3?

Furthermore, let me see if I can apply some math to this...

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
I hope no one's reading that I am suggesting that playing a pocket pair for set value is difficult to play post flop. In fact, it's quite the opposite, it's the easiest preflop hand to play post flop, IMO. A lot easier than KK, with an A-flop, and 4 along for the ride.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh??? Okay, now you've just lost it.

Here's how you play a set on a T98 monotone board: extremely condition dependent, extremely different from an A82 board and an 822 board and a T86, 2 flush board and....

Here's how you play KK on an A high board with 4 people in: First, you hit the 'check' button. Then, you hit the 'fold' button.

[Scuba Chuck]

I'd like to apply a formula to this if possible. Perhaps we can all agree on some assumptioins/probabilities.

First, a small pair completes to a set 1:8.5 times

To make the math easy for the moment (I'll come back and correct later), let's assume we fold to any raise here. What is the probability it's not raised behind us? Is 80% too low? It seems reasonable enough to me.

Finally, what is the probability that someone puts their entire stack in the middle, and we take it down? Is 50% too low here?

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have to disagree mainly with Scuba's rating of the difficulty of playing this post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope no one's reading that I am suggesting that playing a pocket pair for set value is difficult to play post flop. In fact, it's quite the opposite, it's the easiest preflop hand to play post flop, IMO. A lot easier than KK, with an A-flop, and 4 along for the ride.

[ QUOTE ]
As an example, I doulbed off a monkey last night with trip 7s to his AT top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Results oriented. How often is our completed set not getting paid?

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha... Results oriented, fair enough. I was just illustrating the fact that in my experience in the 33s and under, you can often do as well as double when you hit a set, which means that, on average, when you hit the set, you're going to make more than T250, even if you have to charge sometimes on a 2-tone flop and make less or lose some money on a mono-tone flop.

Aren't sets supposed to be some of the easiest hands to make money off of, since they're so well disguised and you can tell exactly whether it's possible someone has a better hand than you?

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
88 in LMP after 1 limper is worse than KQo in the BB to a raise? ...okay

[/ QUOTE ]

touche` /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Aren't sets supposed to be some of the easiest hands to make money off of, since they're so well disguised and you can tell exactly whether it's possible someone has a better hand than you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree whole-heartedly.

In the past, my preflop strategy has been that on level 2 or later, that I was folding to a reraise unless I was closing the action. Furthermore, I had learned that my completed sets were not always getting paid off if the board didn't hit an AKQorJ - this is all from memory.

Finally, I was tired of getting to level 4 with less than 650 chips. Thus, I shutdown playing small pairs unless I was in late position with quite a few limpers in front of me, increasing my implied odds of being paid if I hit, and also increasing the likelihood that I wasn't going to get reraised.

At this stage in my development, I don't end up with 650 chips at level 4 very often anymore, it's much higher than that. Therefore, perhaps it does make sense for me to start including these hands in my strategy again.

That's what I'm hoping I'll get out of this thread. But for the moment, I'm going to play devil's advocate, and assume that my old thought process was correct.

[nokona13]

Can I ask a related question to the debate going on here?

I think Scuba mentioned this above somewhere. What do you do with this in level 3? Level 4?

77-TT I've been limping in level 3, calling a small raise with TT, playing mostly for set value but trying to play poker post-flop if heads up. Level 4 I'm usually &lt;10xBB, so I'm pushing for the most part. Do you push 77 into one limper from LMP on level 4 with an T800 stack?

[adanthar]

You probably don't remember your exact play from back then but my guess would be that you limped more than just pairs, or bet 88 on a K92 (or K72 for that matter) flop, etc.

Yes, you should reexamine that now.

re: 77, it depends on the limper but I will often do that, yeah.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Fold preflop
2. Raise preflop
3. Limp

[/ QUOTE ]

What???

My order:

1. Limp
2. Raise
3. Fold

He's calling ~3% of his stack. Nothing wrong with limping whatsoever.

On the flop, check/fold. The important thing to remember is that you're facing three opponents with two overs. That's not a good spot.

[Bigwig]

Also, and I don't mean any disrespect when saying this, some of you seem to need to learn to play poker. Like, after the flop when your hand isn't perfect or horrible. Sure, I'm limping with 88 here for set value. But it doesn't mean that I can't and/or won't win the hand without a set.

[johnny005]

I've just finished reading this entire post and im wondering if I might have a leak here as well..
But I dont think so. I call almost any pair from medium position and I find that when I do hit them I'm making alot more than 8 times my T30 investment.. this early There are just too many players willing to throw it all in there.

In levels 3-4 I might not be willing to make this play unless my table is playing very loose pasive and I have over 900 in chips.. is this a bad idea or is this a leak too?
If re-raised then I will look at my pot odds and make my descision from here. Any thoughts?

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I ask a related question to the debate going on here?

I think Scuba mentioned this above somewhere. What do you do with this in level 3? Level 4?

77-TT I've been limping in level 3, calling a small raise with TT, playing mostly for set value but trying to play poker post-flop if heads up. Level 4 I'm usually &lt;10xBB, so I'm pushing for the most part. Do you push 77 into one limper from LMP on level 4 with an T800 stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very dependent on the variables. Position, where the limpers are from, how many limpers there are, blind/stack ratio's (not just yours but your opponents), etc.

To draw a parallel with the original post, if the same situation came to me at level 4 (50/100), and I had about the same stack (t900), I'd push 88.

[Phil Van Sexton]

I suppose it goes without saying that I wouldn't fold this hand. I think the call is fine, though I'd probably raise.

I got 88 in MP at the Foxwoods 100NL game on Sunday. Raised pre-flop, made quads on the turn, and won a $370 pot. This result may be affecting my judgement here.

Feel free to disregard this entire post as excuse to talk about a hand that has nothing to do with the original question.

[dfscott]

Wow – just now getting back to this and was surprised to see the firestorm.

Ok, I know the flop bet was bad and a river call would’ve been worse. I’ve been reading HOH and got carried away with a probe bet. Harrington doesn’t play 800-chip 11s.

So now we’re on limp or fold, right? (No one has advocated raising to isolate, I don’t believe.) In fact, AM’s guide advocates limping and following the “no set, no bet” strategy. This has worked well for me in the past, despite my transgression here.

My sample size is probably too small, but I took a look at the times I flopped a set and whether or not I won an entire stack post-flop. (Note that I discounted hands where one or both of us were all-in pre-flop, I hit a set on a later street, it was past level 3, or the set that I flopped was a broadway or better.)

Total mid- to small sets flopped: 14
Times I won less than a stack: 7
Times I won a stack or more: 7

(Note that one of the times I won less than an entire stack, I lost to set over set. Also, one of the times I flopped a set, I actually tripled up.)

Even though my sample size is small, I think there's enough anecdotal evidence to say that I can reasonably expect to take down an entire stack (around 600-700 chips at this stage) 50% of the time when I flop a set. So, doing the math would indicate that I could win 300-350 chips per flopped set, so I think that it's worth limping.

(P.S. Scuba's seen my hand histories, replete with leaks, so I'm ok with him calling me a "bad" player, even if he really didn't. /images/graemlins/smile.gif)

[RobGW]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see any significant implied odds for me to be rewarded for my bet this early in the hand - only one limper

[/ QUOTE ]
How about the limpers entire stack? Give yourself a chance to win some chips.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
t30 is not that big of a deal when confronted with the possibility of taking down a huge pot with a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity, are you folding this hand on level 3?

Furthermore, let me see if I can apply some math to this...

[/ QUOTE ]

assuming i hold an average stack and i have no hyper-aggros behind me yes. as far as the math goes, it is impossible to precisely calculate implied odds, so im curious what you mean here.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Total mid- to small sets flopped: 14
Times I won less than a stack: 7
Times I won a stack or more: 7

[/ QUOTE ]

[EarlCat]

Normally I would have thought limp, check/fold to overcards was a no-brainer. I probably still think that, but now I have to at least do some reconsidering. Thanks, Scuba.

[Scuba Chuck]

using dfscott's statistics, I will use the following assumptions. These assumptions are used just to "start a dialogue" about this issue. There are obvious flaws, that can be recorrected after the original math is examined.

1. Assume that 80% of the time, when betting in EP or MP, the hand is not raised behind me. And that if raised, I will fold.

2. That 50% of the time that the set is completed, I am rewarded by the doubling of my stack (say precisely 800 chips). The other 50% of the time, I will assume a net zero chip return.

That makes the math something like the following:

Probability of doubling up playing a pp for set value:
1/8.5 = .1176
P(sv) = (.80)(.50)(.1176) = .047 or 1 in 21 times.

How does this help me? Well, it helps to uncover what is the minimum limping amount I'd be willing to consider to play a pocker pair (pp). If I am paid off via a double, then once every 21 times, the following 'bets' are appropriate:
15 chips ~ 315 chip cost to earn 800
30 chips ~ 630 chip cost to earn 800

and now the inappropriate bets...
50 chips ~ 1,050 chip cost to earn 800
60 chips ~ 1,260 chip cost to earn 800

The results of this analysis suggests that calling a reraise on level 2 is an incorrect decision.

Finally, I am interested in learning what the stats say about doubling up when there are only 4 or less players in the pot. Perhaps dfscott's results will shed some light on this.

Before I continue with my further thoughts on this, I'm hoping to get some feedback on the above math.

Regards, Scuba

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
fold pre-flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Morgan180, I missed this. Care to share your thoughts here, at the risk of exposing yourself to Scuba-bashing, lol? /images/graemlins/grin.gif