Last One... Fold the turn?

[kurto]

Do I have odds to call here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP3 ($48.49)
CO ($25.25)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($43.65)</font>
SB ($99.65)
BB ($27.63)
UTG ($15.05)
UTG+1 ($11.7)
UTG+2 ($31)
MP1 ($46.75)
<font color="#C00000">MP2 ($24.15)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls $1.75, MP2 calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75.

Flop: ($8.35) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls $8, CO folds.

Turn: ($24.35) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 goes $14.15 (All-In).....

Regardless of thinking vs non thinking opponents... Is this a call everytime? Who, if anyone do you fold this too?

And is there a mathematical way of looking at it? I know if villain has 2 spades, I only have 9 outs (I'll hit ~20%) How does one determine a good statistical percentage of how often a player will (1) go all in with a lesser hand (2) bluff (3) semibluff (he has spade outs)... based on all of that, is this always positive EV?

[PoBoy321]

$15 to call, $40 in the pot, and you're about 3:1 on the next card to hit... it's close, but given that you could possibly have the best hand here, I call.

[Yeknom58]

You pretty much have to be 100% positive he has a flush to fold here.

[bort411]

With these stacks at these limits, I never fold here under any circumstance.

You're ahead a lot of the time here. What makes you think that villian doesn't have a lower set or two pair with the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif?

[kurto]

"You're ahead a lot of the time here. What makes you think that villian doesn't have a lower set or two pair with the A ?"

The villain did have a lower set. I did call and won.

I may be the only person who's troubled by hands I win. If I suckout someone, I'm glad I won the pot... but I want to know that I'm making the correct play and not just the lucky one.

I have a feeling this would be a trickier hand if the stacks were really, really deep.

[schwza]

don't fold the turn.

[Miscreant]

[ QUOTE ]
$15 to call, $40 in the pot, and you're about 3:1 on the next card to hit... it's close, but given that you could possibly have the best hand here, I call.

[/ QUOTE ]