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View Full Version : Who calls in this scenario?


Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 12:24 AM
Just curious. Feel free to respond as well. I'm just interested how many people are calling here.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t969)
UTG (t360)
MP (t2205)
CO (t628)
Button (t344)
SB (t3494)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t344 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t494

ilya
03-22-2005, 12:25 AM
I fold.

Mr_J
03-22-2005, 12:33 AM
It's early and your stack is decent enough, so no gamble for me. To your other thread, I have been using the 'suspicious' all-in on the flop and have done very well with it so far. I've only really tried it at the $22s, and down there they just can't help themselves /images/graemlins/smirk.gif So it may be a trap, but I think you are right in that you are probally ahead.

papa_georgio
03-22-2005, 12:34 AM
i haven't been playing very long but in my limited experience (at 5+1's and 10+1's)once they start to go all in, they do it a lot. you can wait and bust him on another hand.

Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 01:41 AM
As you can see I folded here.

What the implications are is that it's a 244 call into a 494 pot, giving me 2:1 pot odds with less than 1/3 of my stack.

Does that change anyone's answer?

citanul
03-22-2005, 01:49 AM
as raptor can testify, i made a few calls like this today. maybe a few fewer chips, or for a slightly smaller chunk of my stack. eh, depends on the mood i'm in, and how easy i think one set of blinds or so is going to be to steal back.

citanul

John Hurst
03-22-2005, 01:51 AM
No need to gamble here. Too many chips to call and not even upside.

RobGW
03-22-2005, 01:51 AM
I'd want to call here but losing would leave me in a desperate spot. So at what point do you normally say that its too risky? Or does any one say that he is already in a precarious position and maybe its time to gamble it up?

citanul
03-22-2005, 01:55 AM
meh, how different really are 850 (800 post blinds) and 600 (550 post blinds) in some situations? if you think you're going to be able to pick up a set or two of blinds pretty quickly, this is mildly interesting. to the "no need to gamble" person: why not? it's not many chips, winning the hand puts you in decently better shape than you are in, losing the hand doesn't destroy your chances.

how many hands til the blinds go up? is the guy to your left and two to your left generally tight? there's more to many hands than the strength of your cards.

citanul
edit: could this guy have any 2 cards? or is he too tight for his own good?

Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 02:05 AM
Well, I put this guy on any two cards. If I remember correctly, he lost the lionshare of his stack on the previous hand or two.

So you're saying you like this overlay here?

citanul
03-22-2005, 02:23 AM
if you think he's got any 2, you're a favorite, i think, (very narrow) but yeah, call that mess. against a strogn range of hands (any two broadway, any pair, A7s+ A9o+ i think ws the random assed range i came up with) you're like 35%. so yeah, i'd put most players firmly one any 2 cards, and call.

citanul.

GAMBOOL

curtains
03-22-2005, 02:39 AM
If you really put this guy on any 2 cards, you should call here.

Nothinghead
03-22-2005, 03:43 AM
i dont know how he go to be that short stacked or what his play was before this...but unless the blinds are changing real soon, he has 3 or 4 hands before he really needs to push. that leads me to think he has some sort of hand here that he feels good about pushing with. i don't think he would be going with any 2 here (granted i didn't play with him the whole time as you did.)

another thought, he pushed with sb being a rather large big stack and in a pretty decent position to gamble and knock him out if he had any sort of decent hand. (again, this depends on how the table has been playing and player reads).

while you might be getting just about the right price to call, i feel like calling and losing really hurts you with a few other short stacks having to make moves soon.

i think i would fold here...but i'm not positive that is the best choice.

Irieguy
03-22-2005, 03:44 AM
You have a favorable chip stack here for the bubble, and 9 BBs. There's more to it than whether you are a favorite against his range or not.

You should be a favorite against the field with this chip situation on the bubble, and that's where your overlay is.

Fold and get ready to make better decisions than everybody else for the next 20 hands.

Irieguy

Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 10:50 AM
[ QUOTE ]
You should be a favorite against the field with this chip situation on the bubble, and that's where your overlay is.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's precisely the way I always look at these situations. I very much like the way how you view the big picture overlay. I always find it interesting that others are willing to gamble "for the moment" with a stack that is 'workable' against the rest of the field.

bball904
03-22-2005, 11:25 AM
Typically I'd say fold for that % of my chip stack, but given the chip stacks at the table I would consider a call. The reason is that even if you lose there are still 4 short stacks at the table with only 6 left. If this opponent hasn't been tight to lead me to expect a big hand, I'd probably call with the 2:1 looking to get to T1363 5 handed. Losing only puts you down to T625 which is not a deep hole given the table conditions.

Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 01:22 PM
I don't get this logic. Why would you willing give up your chip position on a coinflip here? I would much prefer to risk giving up my chip position when I am the aggressor, not the caller. Do you see why?

What about T7s is so attractive with this overlay? It is clearly a coinflip against any two random cards. It's a dog against any other conceivable hand combo besides the first group (i.e. top 2/3 of hands). Once again, if this was 4 handed, I'd take this in a heartbeat.

I think your mentalility here is to play for first, and risk not even coming in third. I don't think that is healthy for your ROI. I'd rather risk all of my chips against bigstack with AJo. At least then I can make a serious run at first place if I win.

curtains
03-22-2005, 01:43 PM
I love every sentence on 2+2 that ends with "Do you see why?"

Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 01:52 PM
"Do you see why?"

Seadood228
03-22-2005, 01:55 PM
Good points...

I think we should also take into account the fact that a)Hero has an edge abilitywise over most of the opponents and b)There's a good chance the BT isn't making this move with any two.

Playing for first is overrated when there are 4-6 people left... Unless you have a monster stack /images/graemlins/smile.gif

curtains
03-22-2005, 01:57 PM
/images/graemlins/smile.gif

It's just funny, I read like 3 lines in succession ending with that question! I think it's stolen from David Sklansky or something?

yecul
03-22-2005, 02:09 PM
This would have to be a lower percentage of my chipstack before I made the call. If I'm at 1500+ then I'd probably call if I thought he had any two.

go fish
03-22-2005, 04:16 PM
I've only been looking at these forums for a week, and I already think that it would be viable for an acronym to be used in place of "Do you see why?":
DYSW?

bball904
03-22-2005, 05:52 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Why would you willing give up your chip position on a coinflip here? I would much prefer to risk giving up my chip position when I am the aggressor, not the caller. Do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I absolutely see why. Typically, I would not make this call with T7s. However, the point of my post was that given the somewhat bizarre chip stacks at the table, you are not giving up much in terms of chip position for better than 2:1 odds. More than likely with 6 left and only T989, you will be putting yourself in a win or finish OOTM hand at some point anyway. Why not give yourself a 2nd chance to win a hand. Another difference from your thinking is that I certainly would be less inclined to make the call with 4 left and T7s. I wouldn't expect someone who preaches folding 88 in an unraised pot to understand that level of thinking. DYSW?

Another minor positive with calling in this situation is that it may deter someone from making a steal attempt at your blind after making this call.

Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 06:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't expect someone who preaches folding 88 in an unraised pot to understand that level of thinking. DYSW?


[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. What's the reason for taking pot shots at me? Did I offend you? Have I insulted you? Did I do something that I should know about?

Second of all, it's pretty ballsy of you to take pot shots at me considering the poll at the beginning reflecting opinions to the contrary, and other notable posters sharing my opinion.

So be a man, what's the reason for the pot shot? I'm calling you on the floor for it.

valenzuela
03-22-2005, 06:17 PM
In the pot : 344 + 100 + 50=494, amount needed to call:344-100=244...I call..he has a third of ur stack, put urself in his shoes he clearly wants u to fold, u cant do him that favor.

Nottom
03-22-2005, 06:20 PM
I fold, its probably pretty close EV wise and I'd rather not put in almost a 1/3 of my stack while behind when you have pretty good relative chip position. Give me about 1200-1300 chips and I probably call.

Nottom
03-22-2005, 06:22 PM
[ QUOTE ]

If you really put this guy on any 2 cards, you should call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

valenzuela
03-22-2005, 06:24 PM
youll have 1200-1300 chips when u make the call. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Nottom
03-22-2005, 06:27 PM
[ QUOTE ]
youll have 1200-1300 chips when u make the call. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Some times, most of the time you end up with about 600. I think the difference between 850 and 600 is more so than the difference between 850 and 1200 given the current chip stacks. So I'm happy not to gamble here.

Seadood228
03-22-2005, 06:28 PM
Am I the only one who thinks there's a pretty good chance the BT is NOT making this move with any two? I guess it'd help to have information on just how the BT got so low in chips, which might be hard to see if Scuba's multitabling.

I think that many players that short won't push a mediocre hand in that spot given the stack sizes, but then again I'd need more information.

Still, I'm folding here against most players. And I lean further toward a fold the larger the buyin.

valenzuela
03-22-2005, 06:33 PM
But if to those chips you add the eliminated player?

Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 06:38 PM
Seadood, I'm in your camp. Minimally, I think he's pushing top 50% of hands, but more realistically, I think he's pushing top 30% of hands. Frankly, given that possibility, I'm pretty sure that $EV calculations will come out to be negative if you assume a 40% win probability.

But to make the post a little more interesting, I think just considering that it's any two cards really makes for a more interesting debate.

valenzuela
03-22-2005, 07:01 PM
Do we have a sng calculator? somebody posted a link...

Deuce2High
03-22-2005, 07:34 PM
I fold. Marginally.

Not worth the risk.

Misfire
03-22-2005, 08:07 PM
I don't think I like the distribution of chipstacks if you lose. Currently you have 3 players worse off than you. If you lose you only have 1 with less. Does that matter much? Is it worth the risk to knock a guy out and get solidly in 3rd?

valenzuela
03-22-2005, 08:25 PM
Ok I have a sng calculator...lets suppose its a 11sng( its not for skill but to calculate the value of the stack)I dunno if Im wrong or right...right now ur stack is worth $15.56..lets suppose u win 40% of the time. If you fold your stack is worth $13.97, if you lose the all-in your stack is worth $10.35 if you win the all-in your stack should be worth at least $19.40 to make it a right call. Lets see....$20,8 In a SNG the value of losing a player is quite underrated as this example shows...http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html...sry i dunno how to post links. I dont mean to be agressive or anything Scuba but in mathematcial discussions u just cant say youre preety sure about something without a solid background.

valenzuela
03-22-2005, 08:45 PM
The thing Irie is that u have 2 to 1 odds to call. Folding those odds is not making better desicions than the rest of the field IMO, if you lose the all-in you can still make better desicions than everyone else afterwards anyway.

bball904
03-22-2005, 09:10 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't expect someone who preaches folding 88 in an unraised pot to understand that level of thinking. DYSW?


[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. What's the reason for taking pot shots at me? Did I offend you? Have I insulted you? Did I do something that I should know about?

Second of all, it's pretty ballsy of you to take pot shots at me considering the poll at the beginning reflecting opinions to the contrary, and other notable posters sharing my opinion.

So be a man, what's the reason for the pot shot? I'm calling you on the floor for it.

[/ QUOTE ]


In this case, I qualified my statement as being a marginal call because of bizarre circumstances and have given some information to describe my line of thinking. I never said it was wrong to fold here, just that there is some merit to calling.

In the case of the 88 thread, you have repeatedly argued a blatantly wrong viewpoint. This does not offend me, but more disturbs me that less experienced posters are reading that crap and may take the wrong lesson away. The "pot shot" as you describe is directed at that point. The reason for it is that in terms of very active posters giving frequent advice on this forum, yours is all too often off the mark. It would do you some good to post less and read more.

The other reason for it is that I'm a jackass by nature. However, my intentions as far as posting sensible and hopefully correct information on this forum are always genuine.

One other thought back to the original question:

[ QUOTE ]
Once again, if this was 4 handed, I'd take this in a heartbeat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain this to me? Wait, don't. Somebody will assuredly read it.

Edit: I guess we've refuted this statement of yours.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm tough skinned, I don't mind the bashing...


[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 09:39 PM
Valenzuela, I have done enough ICM/$EV calculations to come up with estimates in my head. Furthermore, I have had difficulty following your math in your post. So, I will do an $EV analysis using an ICM calculator (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html).

First assumptions:
Villain hand range
HR(1) - top 50% of hands (top 85 hands from eastbays grid (http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/hand-rankings.html))
HR(1) = 40% win probability
HR(2) - top 39% of hands (top 50 hands from eastbays grid)
HR(2) = 36.7% win probability (not much difference)

If I win, I have 1363 chips (20.8% of the equity prize pool)
If I lose, I will have 625 chips (10.35% of the equity prize pool)
If I fold, I will have 869 chips (13.97% of the equity prize pool)

Thus calling,HR(1) = (.40)(.1035)+(.40)(.2008) = .142 = 14.2%.

And calling, HR (2) = (.633)(.1035)+(.367)(.2008) = .139 = 13.9%

Folding = 13.9% of the equity prize pool

So, how important is the call here? I think this is marginal at best. I was off, it was slightly positive (or neutral), not negative - go figure, it's not my day. Do you still think I don't have a solid background?

FWIW, my opinion doesn't change. ICM analysis isn't perfect. But today is the day to rip on Scuba, so everyone, blast away.

Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 09:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The "pot shot" as you describe is directed at that point. The reason for it is that in terms of very active posters giving frequent advice on this forum, yours is all too often off the mark. It would do you some good to post less and read more.

[/ QUOTE ]

So does this opinion represent the forum here? If so, I'll leave.

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: I guess we've refuted this statement of yours.


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm tough skinned, I don't mind the bashing...

[/ QUOTE ]

You got me. Today has gotten under my skin. But thanks, it's thoughtful comments like yours that really make me happy to be a member of this forum.

citanul
03-22-2005, 09:49 PM
Please stop using "Do you see why?" it's making it very hard to be nice to the posters in this forum.

citanul

PS: that is not just for scuba, but for everyone. especially people who are wrong.

citanul
03-22-2005, 09:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Another difference from your thinking is that I certainly would be less inclined to make the call with 4 left and T7s. I wouldn't expect someone who preaches folding 88 in an unraised pot to understand that level of thinking. DYSW?

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you'd like to explain it? I'd take this gamble every single time 4 handed. I also think it would be plainly idiotic to not do so. So perhaps you'd like to explain it to the class without trashing Scuba, just because he's the flavor of the day.

citanul

citanul
03-22-2005, 10:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The "pot shot" as you describe is directed at that point. The reason for it is that in terms of very active posters giving frequent advice on this forum, yours is all too often off the mark. It would do you some good to post less and read more.

[/ QUOTE ]

So does this opinion represent the forum here? If so, I'll leave.

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: I guess we've refuted this statement of yours.


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm tough skinned, I don't mind the bashing...

[/ QUOTE ]

You got me. Today has gotten under my skin. But thanks, it's thoughtful comments like yours that really make me happy to be a member of this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

scuba,

i know you're having a bad day, and people are taking really stupid shots at you (for instance, bball over here, who is wrong, and maybe knows he's wrong, so he's bringing in a thread that has nothing to do with this thread to try to defend his actions), but really. you're just being silly with this "if so, i'll leave" nonsense. personally, i don't really care if people who are wrong post frequently. and yes, you're wrong sometimes. it is the point of the forums, not just to read the opinions of the learned few, or whatever, but to have discussions from the others as well. i'm pretty sure that there's a chunk of us who really, truly, rarely play a hand that we sit and think about, and then still really desire more opinions advice from other players about the hand. a forum populated by just those people posting would be very dull. similarly, say an inexperienced person posts a question, and has some ideas all messed up in their heads. they, and other inexperienced people often learn more from trying to explain why they think something wrong is right, and then learning why they are wrong, and what is right, than just having someone hit them in the back of the head with a stick. this, btw, is not the same as the recent rash of new posters giving me headaches by not using the search function. that's completely different, and hopefully will be dealt with in the majority by the faq. for now, this is the end of this particular one paragraphed rant.

btw, bball, in case you don't understand: you're a dick.

citanul

The Yugoslavian
03-22-2005, 10:11 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The thing Irie is that u have 2 to 1 odds to call. Folding those odds is not making better desicions than the rest of the field IMO


[/ QUOTE ]

At the $215s, this line of thinking is much more valuable than the levels Scuba plays.

[ QUOTE ]

if you lose the all-in you can still make better desicions than everyone else afterwards anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm, one of the better decisions you can make is to fold in the OP situation.

Yugoslav

valenzuela
03-22-2005, 10:39 PM
I think youre being kinda unfair to me and you should admit the call is right, the whole thread is basically about whether the fold is right or not. You clearly dont have a solid background to say ure sure folding winning 40% of the time is correct. Why the call is right?( apart from the ICM calculator) because you have 2 to 1 pot odds, and you can eliminate one player. Ive said really stupid stuff in this forum and the better players have corrected me, now I give my point of view to a stronger player( 99% sure Im right) and suddenly ICM analysis isnt perfect, come on give me some credit.

Scuba Chuck
03-22-2005, 10:51 PM
Look V, if I'm coming on a little strong, well, I'm sure you can tell why. Your comments felt like they were beginning to be along the lines of bball904's comments (see above). If that was not your intent, then you don't deserve any of my meek ire.

Second of all, I post these difficult hands on purpose. I was acutely aware of the pot odds, and I elected to fold. I thought this would be a good forum discussion.

And yes, ICM does have it's flaws. For example, it assumes all players are of equal ability. Due to the fact that I believe I am better than the field, I don't think playing for an additonal 20 or 30 chips on average here makes sense. IMO, I can make it to ITM most of the time with my current stack in this situation. But, if I lost 250 chips here, I think it definately reduces my ITM % (and thus ROI %). In the end, I came to the conclusion that it was better for my ROI to fold this marginal hand.

BTW, I'm not sure how many people are aware of the inefficiencies of ICM. In general, it is an extremely useful tool. But, when the results are thin, there are other factors to consider.

bball904
03-22-2005, 11:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Another difference from your thinking is that I certainly would be less inclined to make the call with 4 left and T7s. I wouldn't expect someone who preaches folding 88 in an unraised pot to understand that level of thinking. DYSW?

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you'd like to explain it? I'd take this gamble every single time 4 handed. I also think it would be plainly idiotic to not do so. So perhaps you'd like to explain it to the class without trashing Scuba, just because he's the flavor of the day.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I'll try. 4 handed button T344, you bb T969, other 2 stacks clearly very healthy.

You call and lose: you T625, button T738 ... not good

Fold: you T869, button T494 and still desperate.

In this case I'm less inclined to gamble for 2 reasons. 1) My chances of doing better than 3rd and much less than the 6 handed original situation. 2) I am close to the money with a healthy chip advantage. 6 handed with T869 is still miles from the money and virtually no more chip advantage or disadvantage than having T625 would be.

IMO, this is a marginal call 6 handed and a clear fold 4 handed.

[ QUOTE ]
btw, bball, in case you don't understand: you're a dick.


[/ QUOTE ]

I understand. Let's just call it my style. I do think it's more effective in making points in certain situations and I do enjoy it.

Misfire
03-23-2005, 12:01 AM
[ QUOTE ]
You call and lose: you T625, button T738 ... not good

Fold: you T869, button T494 and still desperate.

In this case I'm less inclined to gamble for 2 reasons. 1) My chances of doing better than 3rd and much less than the 6 handed original situation. 2) I am close to the money with a healthy chip advantage. 6 handed with T869 is still miles from the money and virtually no more chip advantage or disadvantage than having T625 would be.

IMO, this is a marginal call 6 handed and a clear fold 4 handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a new player so please be easy on me until I get my official 2+2 flak jacket. I've been tracking my SNG's for about a month now and my ITM is good while my ROI stinks. Obviously I'm folding into too many 3rds, and from what I've gathered reading here this means my bubble play isn't near agressive enough. Even if calling this 4-handed gives you a bigger chance you're gonna bust out, doesn't the advantage you might get post-bubble if/when you do win the pot make it worth it--because you'll have a better shot at 1st?

Can any of the big-wigs correct my thinking?

Seadood228
03-23-2005, 03:48 AM
[ QUOTE ]
So does this opinion represent the forum here? If so, I'll leave.

[/ QUOTE ]

I seriously doubt it Scuba. Remember that poker is a game where a good percantage of the better players tend to have enormous egos, and never is that more evident than on this site. People tend to take a subtle disagreement as an all out personal attack on their abilities as a player, and thus tend to react with their own vicious retorts.. Add to all this the anonymity of being online and, you can see where this is going.

Nobody on this site plays perfect poker. If they did they wouldn't be on here. Voicing your opinion and having it critiqued is all part of the learning process, and we ALL benefit from hearing another opinion, even if it differs from our own. It's just that some players tend to think that their way is the only way, which couldn't be further from the truth.

Scuba Chuck
03-23-2005, 10:35 AM
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, this is a marginal call 6 handed and a clear fold 4 handed.

[/ QUOTE ]


(trying to be as polite as I can)

The reason why you have this completely backwards is simple. It appears that you'd be willing to take a chance on a coinflip when the outcome is less relevant. In the second example, why it's important to consider, and in fact accept this in a 4 way game is because the result of the coinflip is precisely measurable in real $$ terms. If you win the coinflip with 6 left, it doesn't guarantee you win any money. If you win the coinflip here with 4 people left, it guarantees that you win money. Other than ITM, their are only four times at which I am willing to take coinflips:
a. I have a significant chip lead
b. I am a chip dog, and I need to double up
c. I am on the bubble
d. My skill level is below the field, and doubling up will likely level the playing field for me. (And then return to a more desirable game afterwards, lol)

There are other important factors to consider in lieu of this example that make this a compelling poker proposition. But, I've spent a lot of time considering when to accept coinflips, and this is one of them.

The fact that you came to this conclusion on your own, represents the common growing fallacies that poker strategy is obvious. You have fallen into the amateur poker bubble trap, becoming too tight on the bubble. And conversely, playing potentially too loose before the bubble (I say potententially because the $EV analysis is a draw - and yet you were ready to 'bust my balls' because (in your opinion) I don't have the ability to comprehend such deep poker thoughts as you are able to do /images/graemlins/shocked.gif - and yet I see that you now say this is a marginal call)

The fact that I challenge the status quo seems to upset the rooster cage here a little. For me it's part of my learning process. "Prove me wrong" is my attitude. Hey, that's pretty much what you're trying to do in this thread, but belligerently, and in poor taste, IMO. The more I think about it, I feel sorry for you. The fact that it's your style to be an a$$hole (per your admission), is really a poor human characteristic.

Misfire
03-23-2005, 11:51 AM
[ QUOTE ]
The reason why you have this completely backwards is simple. It appears that you'd be willing to take a chance on a coinflip when the outcome is less relevant. In the second example, why it's important to consider, and in fact accept this in a 4 way game is because the result of the coinflip is precisely measurable in real $$ terms. If you win the coinflip with 6 left, it doesn't guarantee you win any money. If you win the coinflip here with 4 people left, it guarantees that you win money.

...

You have fallen into the amateur poker bubble trap, becoming too tight on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes me feel better.

bball904
03-23-2005, 12:23 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The reason why you have this completely backwards is simple. It appears that you'd be willing to take a chance on a coinflip when the outcome is less relevant.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that this outcome is much more relevant. That is the primary reason you don't gamble with the inferior holding. Why do you want to give chips to the short stack as a likely 2:1 dog. If you lose (as a 2:1 dog) you will have given your chip position away. Fold and you still have him down and you have 2 huge stacks with you all waiting for a hand to take him out.

Now, if you were a 2k+ healthy stack, you'd probably want to call here (unless of course you were the only huge stack). DYSW?

[ QUOTE ]
and yet I see that you now say this is a marginal call

[/ QUOTE ]

Chucky, please find and quote me where I said the original situation was something other than a marginal call. You have misunderstood this throughout your series of replies.

ColdestCall
03-23-2005, 12:27 PM
Hey Scuba. Thanks for another interesting problem where the answer is real close....

I only had a second to glance at it yesterday, and do a quick and dirty analysis (similar to what I would do at the table) and voted for a call. At the time, I though it was REAL close.

I figured that argument in favor of a call were that button would push with any two, I was getting about 2 to 1 from the pot, winning would put me well ahead of the other short stacks, losing would not totally cripple me relative to the other short stacks, and that this call would make people think twice before trying to steal my blinds later.

I thought the arguments for a fold included the fact that raiser may have something significantly better than any two, and that the chips I would lose by calling and losing might hurt me more 2/3 of the time than the chips I would gain by calling and winning would help me 1/3 of the time.

I was far from "sure" that calling was right, but I was pretty sure that it was so close that it wouldn't make a tremendous difference, and I felt like I would likely call at the table, so that's how I cast my vote.

Anyway, I was a little surprised to see this thread still raging today, and even more surprised to see people flaming and just generally bugging out that their point of view was absolutely right. I mean, this is just not that clear cut, IMO. I'd probably call, but I don't think a fold is all that bad either. I've seen a similar trend (people getting real worked up over their point of view) developing in other threads, and in general on this forum lately.

Which brings me to today's haiku....

Many poker hands
have more than one way to play.
People need to chill.

citanul
03-23-2005, 12:32 PM
much better. the world is beginning to spin properly again, i think.

citanul

citanul
03-23-2005, 12:39 PM
i don't understand how you are still arguing about whether or not this would be a call on the bubble. scuba, could you run a icm of this assuming 2 even tall stacks, and a couple ranges of hands?

bball, there is absolutely no way that you can assume that the pusher has a 2-1 favorite over you. the range of hands AA-22, AKs-AJs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo-KJo, QJo is a 2-1 favorite over this hand, and if you assume that that's all he's pushing with, well, you're assuming badly.

see, the whole reason you should become more aggressive as the short stack in a situation just like this, is that people make bad folds and give you free chips.

stop using the dysw thing. it's totally stupid. especially when there is a very very very good chance you are wrong, it just makes you seem like an idiot. not an [censored], see, an idiot, and i think you wanted to appear to be one, not the other.

your comment about play if you had 2k chips is absolutely horrific.

until proven wrong, i'm going to go with continuing to believe that your comment about play of htis hand if it were 4 handed is horrific too.

scuba: you also left out a key time when you are willing to gamble, i think you left it out anyway. that being exactly this situation. you are getting 3-1 on a call for a smallish chunk of your stack, with the chance to knock out a player (on the bubble). edit: i guess that's kinda covered in your list, but in the 6 handed example, where i think you should call, i think, you're not on the bubble and won't double up, so i thought that was a new case.

citanul

Scuba Chuck
03-23-2005, 01:19 PM
Coldcall, the only reason this thread is still raging is because how fired up I was yesterday.

Ultimately my point in this thread is this:

It was right for me to fold in this case. It was very close, and I took quite a while to make that decision during the hand. I have been arguing with others who tell me I'm wrong. I have primarily been arguing for why it was was right for me to fold this hand.

Irieguy said it best:
[ QUOTE ]
Fold and get ready to make better decisions than everybody else for the next 20 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

see my response to Valenzuela:
[ QUOTE ]
And yes, ICM does have it's flaws. For example, it assumes all players are of equal ability. Due to the fact that I believe I am better than the field, I don't think playing for an additonal 20 or 30 chips on average here makes sense. IMO, I can make it to ITM most of the time with my current stack in this situation. But, if I lost 250 chips here, I think it definately reduces my ITM % (and thus ROI %). In the end, I came to the conclusion that it was better for my ROI to fold this marginal hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
In essence, I believe the answer to this question is a fold is correct for me. Furthermore, I continue to believe that for all those who believe that their skill is better than the field, that there's a slight weight towards folding here more than calling. Without a doubt, no one can say that one way is an absolute right or wrong for anybody else. That's what has made this such an interesting post. The decision comes down to factors that are pertinent to either your style or skill ability, IMO.

Furthermore, I learned from this post, that this decision was even closer than I orginally thought. (ICM range was between 0-0.3% call, depending on your Hand Range). At the table, I had guessed it was marginally -$EV.

Finally, this post spilled over into today because of my ire with bball904's comments:
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't expect someone who preaches folding 88 in an unraised pot to understand that level of thinking. DYSW?


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
in terms of very active posters giving frequent advice on this forum, yours is all too often off the mark. It would do you some good to post less and read more.

[/ QUOTE ]

microbet
03-23-2005, 01:30 PM
The vote is 3 to 1 in favor of folding. The argument just makes it seem like you have the minority opinion.

I voted for fold right away, but felt that it was very close.

Scuba Chuck
03-23-2005, 01:32 PM
[ QUOTE ]
The vote is 3 to 1 in favor of folding. The argument just makes it seem like you have the minority opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

This response came off of my post.
Are you talking to me? I favor folding.

Kurn, son of Mogh
03-23-2005, 01:44 PM
Depends. When do the blinds go up?

If this is the 1st or 2nd hand of 50/100 I might fold. If not, I call.

Kurn, son of Mogh
03-23-2005, 01:47 PM
Give me about 1200-1300 chips and I probably call.

I take a different approach. If I have between 1100-1600 I'm more likely to fold here. Above or below that, I call.

microbet
03-23-2005, 01:51 PM
Yeah, it just sounded in the thread like you were saying you were up against pretty much everyone else. I just wanted to point out that most people agreed with you. I'm sure you already knew this though. I was just wasting electrons. I'm late for work.

gasgod
03-23-2005, 05:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Please stop using "Do you see why?" it's making it very hard to be nice to the posters in this forum.

citanul

PS: that is not just for scuba, but for everyone. especially people who are wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't agree more. DYSW is almost always arrogant and insulting. (Though it may not be intended that way.) If you have a point that you think others might miss, then explain it.


GG

valenzuela
03-23-2005, 08:46 PM
IS THERE A REALLY HUGE DIFFERRENCE BETWEEN LOSING THE ALL-IN OR FOLDING?????? If you fold u have 860 and villain has 490, if you lose you have 610 and villain has 740....well its not the end of the world. IS THERE A HUGE DIFFENCE BETTWEEN WINNING AND FOLDING? Well u have 1200 chips, in 3rd place and 5 dudes left. You will have more chips, more flexibility to make better desitions and to outplay the field( dont take this as sarcasm I actually mean this)

anyway : WHY WAIT TO MAKE +EV DESITIONS? WHY ??

Thats my point, this is my last post in this thread, again scuba take it easy but first folding is correct and now folding FOR U is correct...youre slowly getting away from what u say...its very natural for us humans to do that i do it like once a week.

NegativeEV
03-23-2005, 09:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Thats my point, this is my last post in this thread, again scuba take it easy but first folding is correct and now folding FOR U is correct...youre slowly getting away from what u say...its very natural for us humans to do that i do it like once a week.

[/ QUOTE ]

A player with a below average to average bubble game understanding should call in this case. A very strong bubble player has a tougher decision. Folding for Scuba is probably correct.

There are times when players with a good grasp on proper end-game play should fold marginal ICM+ spots, and this is what I think Scuba means. It's important to identify these spots, and this one is close which is why this discussion is good- it contemplates a play based on Hero's perception that his understanding of bubble play exceeds that of his opponents ENOUGH to make this a fold. I don't think Scuba is "getting away from what he said".

gasgod
03-23-2005, 09:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]

I figured that argument in favor of a call were that button would push with any two, ...
...



I thought the arguments for a fold included the fact that raiser may have something significantly better than any two, ...


[/ QUOTE ]


Some posters made the point that button would push with any two, but absent a good read on button, this is unjustified. There are people out there who would never push a hand like 84o in this situation.

A good analysis, IMHO, would assume that button has a hand in the top 'X' percent, where X is between 25 and 75. It looks to me that the question is still close, though.

I voted for fold because I suck at shortstack play, and I want to stay as far away from that condition as possible.


GG

Scuba Chuck
03-23-2005, 10:56 PM
Valenzuela, now that I know that you're 16 years old, I have to give you a lot more credit. I think you have a very good grasp on this concept. Hopefully hand discussions like this will help you be a WSOP poker player some day.

[ QUOTE ]
IS THERE A REALLY HUGE DIFFERRENCE BETWEEN LOSING THE ALL-IN OR FOLDING?????? If you fold u have 860 and villain has 490, if you lose you have 610 and villain has 740....well its not the end of the world

[/ QUOTE ]

The big differences lies in folding equity, and your ability to wield that power to your advantage.

You have great points. I don't think that calling here is incorrect. I just believe that posters here on this forum all agree that they think they are the ****more skilled**** players at the table whenever they sit down. If I am to apply this thought process to everyone here, then I think that folding here is the better move for all who are of the opinion they are better skilled than the field. +200 chips does have FE against 3 of the remaining 5 opponents. Losing those 200 chips could be damaging to your FE. Valenzuela, I suspect you'll agree that winning 150 chips without a showdown, is more attractive than a 60% chance losing 244 chips, and a 40% chance of winning 500 chips. If you disagree then our differences are more related our differences in FE beliefs.

In the end, you seem like a very smart kid. You've made solid counter points. The math, however marginal does say to call. I don't think that you could make too many mistakes if you always played by the math. Good luck in your endeavors.

valenzuela
03-23-2005, 11:42 PM
ty..i said i wouldnt post anymore because i realized that i was giving the same arguments on every post I made. I hope to be a great player someday...its easier to be a good player for somebody like me( chilean and 16) nowadays with internet forums and pokersites . 2+2 its the second most important forum in my small poker adventure(sry but cardplayer gave me 15 bux on a freeroll) . About the hand I will say 2 more things, you have enough chips( 3x the pusher) to hurt the pusher. You increase your chances of winning or coming second.

Scuba Chuck
03-24-2005, 12:31 AM
dude, you made your point. I've made mine. Enough said. Now go enjoy some of that great Chilean wine, as that's what I did when i was 16.