Early play - suspicious bet, do you let this one go?

[Scuba Chuck]

No reads on villain at this point. His bet went in pretty much as the flop hit the board. My hunch was that he did not have a pocket pair. I could only put him on A-ten, or two clubs. Any other hands I should have read?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP (t2510)
CO (t2020)
Hero (t905)
SB (t865)
BB (t945)
UTG (t755)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t100.

Flop: (t325) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t795 (All-In)</font>, Hero thinks for a long time (after extension, down to 2 seconds) and probably folds the best hand.

Final Pot: t1120

[Benholio]

I think this is a definate fold. Even if you could somehow determine you have him beat half of the time, it isn't worth it. You're either way behind (2 outs), or barely ahead (flush draw, overcards).

[Scuba Chuck]

Ben, those were my thoughts precisely. I really put him on a semi-bluff flush draw.

I found out later he had A8o. Once again my gut was right, but a level head prevailed (and the better of the two choices at this stage of the game).

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Ben, those were my thoughts precisely. I really put him on a semi-bluff flush draw.

I found out later he had A8o. Once again my gut was right, but a level head prevailed (and the better of the two choices at this stage of the game).

[/ QUOTE ]

Scoob let me get this straight: you make a great read BUT the wrong play, yet you are still stroking yourself over the decision?

What happens when you've climbed the ladder to a level where more than half the players at the table actually have some clue? A mistake like this could cost you the money.

[Scuba Chuck]

Mr Spentrent, had this hand been 4 handed or less, I make this call. The fact that I MAKE the correct read here, doesn't make this the right play IMO. You still have to account for the fact that i am wrong sometimes. Winning this hand doesn't guarantee me the money for me to "gamble" on my gut feelings. I tend to use those instincts for bubble play and ITM play.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Mr Spentrent, had this hand been 4 handed or less, I make this call. The fact that I MAKE the correct read here, doesn't make this the right play IMO. You still have to account for the fact that i am wrong sometimes. Winning this hand doesn't guarantee me the money for me to "gamble" on my gut feelings. I tend to use those instincts for bubble play and ITM play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said; I agree. However, I stand by my point regarding games where the players are generally better.

I also like when you say "Mr." /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[adanthar]

If my read was that he did *not* have a pocket pair I would fold.

If I thought he could have one, knew he was a 2+2'er, or knew he was aware of the general concept of a stop and go even if not the words, I'd call as fast as he pushed.

I don't think it was a bad fold, though. You need a much better read to make that type of call than usual...and for that matter, the fact that you thought about it in detail is a good sign on its own.

[curtains]

This isn't a stop+go sitaution at all.

[adanthar]

Given the stack sizes here it's actually closer than you think, but you're right. I mostly meant it in a 'sophistication level' way, though.

It boils down to whether he thinks on a higher level than 'I have a T, I push' or not.

[Bigwig]

I'd call.