Exploiting the Continuation Bet

[HoldingFolding]

Softish table, thought I might get a few limpers with my suited connectors. I called the raise, because I was pretty certain MP1 would come along (so much for that).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t2840)
BB (t570)
Hero (t2680)
UTG+1 (t2190)
UTG+2 (t3335)
MP1 (t930)
MP2 (t2390)
MP3 (t2260)
CO (t4115)
Button (t1580)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Hero calls t100, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t100, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t300</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t200, MP1 folds.

Flop: (t800) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t500</font>

This looked like a classic continuation bet to me. I think overpairs would check. I thought there was at least a 70% chance SB had AK, possibly AQ, outside chance a medium pair. I thought about three moves:
1. Going all in to take it down now, no point in mucking about and if he has a medium pair he might call.

2. Reraising 500; he might be attached to that AK.

3. Calling; he's only got 6 outs, he might put me on some sort of a draw and have another stab on the turn.

[kuro]

Fold preflop. You got yourself in a sticky situation playing a big pot with a weak hand. You don't know if the villain is making a continuation bet, protecting his over pair, set, or tptk from the flush draw, or betting his flush draw.

A significant reraise puts you all in and is only going to be called by hands that beat you. So fold or call him down and hope that you're right about the flop bet being a continuation bet.

Remember when you play suited connectors you are looking to play them for cheap, multiway, with position, and are looking to hit the flop hard (two pair, pair + straight/flush draw) rather than just make top pair. You can really end up spewing off a lot of chips if you aren't selective with when you decide to play them.

[Roman]

I would fold this preflop.

I am not really in love with the hand on the flop either, a small raise out of position by the SB here screams stength to me. Raising is bad as it pot commits you, I probably call him down.

[HoldingFolding]

In general, I would fold this pre-flop, but it was a loose low entry fee MTT. My read turned out to be accurate, I went all in, he called and turned over AKo.

Obviously, this was a good outcome, but I think a player at a higher level MTT would have simply folded. I now feel I should have simply called and tried to extract more chips on the turn.

Early in MTTs I believe I am missing opportunities to accumulate chips. 100 here, 100 there, has a compound knock on effect when you get to the coin flip stage.

[sdplayerb]

awesome, you can win a small pot or lose a huge one.

and why would somebody check with KK or QQ? they don't want you to have a free shot at hitting an A.

[EverettKings]

The point of a continuation bet is to continue betting both when you like the flop and when you don't. You have no reason here to believe that this particular time he didn't like it, as I think most overpairs (and other made hands) keep betting here.

Also, reraising only 200 more out of the SB, like someone said, smells bad. I usually raise a vulnerable hand like AK or TT more where he did. Be careful not to assume things like that just because
A) you turned out to be correct, or
B) you simply want to as that means your hand is best
I find myself wanting to believe that someone is bluffing or something like that when i get attached to a marginal hand, so be careful.

Oh, and I agree with what they said about folding preflop and calling down.

-Kings

[Chicago Kid]

[ QUOTE ]
I think overpairs would check

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with your logic here--if I've got KK or QQ, there's no way I'm giving a free card here, especially with two diamonds on the board. I'd consider it with AA, but probably not with a flush draw around.

With that said, I'd have called it down, and looked for him to slow down if he hasn't hit.

[HoldingFolding]

Very good post. Thanks. I was surprised at all the negative posts, but may be I should take it to heart. I wonder if you're right, I got a good result so I assumed I made a good read. I've no doubt my read became a lot more certain (retrospectively, if you catch my drift) once he had turned over the cards.

On the other hand I've noticed that skillful aggressive players with bigger stacks can do well in these type of situations simply because they can accurately put their opponents on, shall we say, group 1/2 hands.

I've typically been weak tight, so I'm playing around at lower limit buy ins to try other things. I feel I play too tight in the high buy in MTTs, in the early stages, I'll often find myself sweating a call or a raise only to have my opponent show me a laughable hand I have well beaten. This has been a topic in numerous posts so I don't want to rehash it here, but 2 hours in I'm usually a small stack worrying about when to take my coin flip. I follow a lot of the good players here and know they're not a biggish stack simply through having good cards. They're entering far more pots than me, playing well post flop and not showing down hands.

Thanks again everyone.

[iMsoLucky0]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Reraising 500; he might be attached to that AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
A significant reraise puts you all in and is only going to be called by hands that beat you. So fold or call him down and hope that you're right about the flop bet being a continuation bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is impossible to reraise on the flop. Hero could raise though.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, reraising only 200 more out of the SB, like someone said, smells bad. I usually raise a vulnerable hand like AK or TT more where he did. Be careful not to assume things like that just because

[/ QUOTE ]

Villian raised preflop, he did not reraise, there was no raise in front of him.

/images/graemlins/confused.gif Why is this so hard for people to understand?

[CardSharpCook]

I do not like limping PF when the blinds have been raised to this level. Suited connectors do well in multiway pots, and I understand the urge to take down a really big pot at this point, so I'll let it slide.

On the flop you have a decision to make. Do you have the best hand, right now? If not, you should fold. If you think you do... Your opponent may have a flush draw (though very unlikely) He may have a flush card (I'm fine with that) he may have overs or he may have a low PP (remember, this is IF you are winning). Now, DONT PLAY SCARED!!! Don't go AI and make him fold his six outs/two outs. Lets see if he will keep betting your hand. If he has you beat, you're dead anyway, but if you are winning, you are at worst a 3:1 favorite. As long as he is willing to pay much better than that, let him. Now, I say you are a 3:1 favorite, but it is really better than that. You have 6:1 odds that he won't make his hand on the turn. When he bets the turn, make him pay for the river card.

CSC