99 5-10 6 max

[mike l.]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (10.70 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 10.70 BB

[rory]

Bet the river.

[SomethingClever]

Do you fold to a 3-bet on the turn?

I'm weak/tight but I just calldown on the double scare card like that.

[PassiveCaller]

Even with the BB cold calling the turn?

I actually like the line as is. With that scary turn you could easily freeze some hands that beat you and still get good value and show it down.

[mike l.]

"Do you fold to a 3-bet on the turn?"

yes

[MAxx]

i think if you are raising here, which I like if you intend on calling down as an alternative, which you probably were...

with that line of thought SomethingClever... i think you gotta fold to a 3bet on the turn. You probably wouldnt make this play against someone capable of 3betting you with a worse hand as a bluff or on a draw.

i have raised the turn to protect hand and charge draws.
i then check river... am ready to show down and dont want to risk anymore bets on this board. missed draws will not call. sure some lesser made hands may call... but it appears thin to me at first glance. i would hate getting cr'd on this river. i wouldnt really like getting called by a better hand either.

i dont know rory.... care to provide river thoughts?

[flawless_victory]

i would bet the river.

[Danenania]

I like this line. Don't mind the river check though it depends some on how bad BB and UTG are.

[rory]

I think it is unlikely that anyone has the 8 because both players just called the flop, no raises. So I'm not that worried about an 8. I think the BB probably has a big club he is drawing to. The random bet out when the board pairs by UTG usually means that he has a baby pair and thinks it is good because the top card paired and doesn't want to give a free card, or some random weird bluff because it was a scary card. These guys won't fold if you raise them when they do this if they have a pair. It's no secret a liar doesn't believe anyone else.

Either way, once nobody 3 bets on the turn I think my hand is good on the river and I am going to value bet. I expect the BB to fold and UTG to call me with some small sort of pair. If either of them raises the river, I bail. It is possible that UTG has the 8 and is scared of the flush, or the BB is slowplaying quads or a boat or something wacky like that. But far more often you get paid off by UTGs pair of 4s or whatever to make a bet worth it IMO. I suck though.

[Danenania]

Good analysis but I think quite a few players would take UTG's line with a weak 8, maybe even a strong one.

[PassiveCaller]

I'd think they need to be pretty bad to make this a bet here but that isn't out of the question in these 5-10 games. With that being I think hero's line is best and agree with you.

[rory]

Very true.

[Schneids]

I always bet this river. Sometimes I lose but that's life -- I've got two customers that are hungry to call with any piece of the board I'm gonna win much more than the times I'm called and lose.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is unlikely that anyone has the 8 because both players just called the flop, no raises. So I'm not that worried about an 8. I think the BB probably has a big club he is drawing to. The random bet out when the board pairs by UTG usually means that he has a baby pair and thinks it is good because the top card paired and doesn't want to give a free card, or some random weird bluff because it was a scary card. These guys won't fold if you raise them when they do this if they have a pair. It's no secret a liar doesn't believe anyone else.

Either way, once nobody 3 bets on the turn I think my hand is good on the river and I am going to value bet. I expect the BB to fold and UTG to call me with some small sort of pair. If either of them raises the river, I bail. It is possible that UTG has the 8 and is scared of the flush, or the BB is slowplaying quads or a boat or something wacky like that. But far more often you get paid off by UTGs pair of 4s or whatever to make a bet worth it IMO. I suck though.

[/ QUOTE ]

For once I agree with rory (nice analysis too). And schnieds sums up perfectly why you dont worry about the scared weak 8.


And I think raising the turn is far far better than calling. You still have a player to act, and youve got a hand to protect.

[BradL]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its very close on the river. I might have found a bet but I have no real problem with checking behind.

Edit: I think finding a bet on the river in a spot like this is almost always opponent dependent.

-Brad

[samdash]

I like raising the turn since this game tends to be so passive. Once the other guy coldcalls I would actually plan on checking any non 9 or 8 river behind. I think either of these guys could have you crushed, that's just the way the game is playing right now. The random turn bet outs seem to be more legit than usual. If I was in a 10/20 or 15/30 6 max game I'd actually be more inclined to bet the river here. The turn bet out is now more often a weak pair/draw than a "better than overpair hand". You are more often 3 bet on the turn by just about any better hand.

[mike l.]

sb had K4o w/ the K of clubs and utg took it down w/ red KTo for a pair of kings on the end.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
utg took it down w/ red KTo for a pair of kings on the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is why the 5/10 is so profitable, heh

[fnord_too]

I would bet the river and fold to a raise.

[ISF]

I think this is a pretty easy river bet with two opponents as long as you can fold to a raise. That random bet on the turn usually means either a flush draw or the paired eights made UTG think is random five or pp was good. You will be ahead when called well more then 50% of the time IMO.

[mike l.]

ok ive been doing this a lot online, betting river, folding to a raise. but im going to start doing it less. the times im calling w/ AK on a A76J2 board after they river raised me im being shown J3 too often.

[Alobar]

I don't like folding to a river raise unless it is super obvious I'm beat.

On a board like you describe, you assume you HAVE to be beat, because no way is TPTK good in this situation. Thats true against normal people, but Id say less than 10% of the 5/10 players have an IQ higher than forrest gump /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Same goes for turn checkraises, I used to dump TPTK unless I had the odds to try for a 2 pair or something. Now I call down alot more often, because I get shown TPWK a ton of times. To me its starting to become an epidemic the number of players who checkraise the turn when they flopped top pair, regardless of how crappy their kicker is, or even if an overcard falls on the turn.

[MAxx]

well it maybe a pretty easy river bet for you, but that doesnt necessarily make it right. Being ahead more than 50%, IMO opion is highly player dependant. I personally think I would have to witness some pretty bad river calls on their parts before I assume they meet the criteria for this thin river bet... such as showing down any pair or any A high in any situation.

[DrGutshot]

If you were raising for value on the turn, why check the river? Was it the king or the call-2 cold that scared you into thinking you were beat?

edit: if you thought 66,77, a pair of 5's or 4's wouldn't call this river, you are wrong.

-DrG

[MAxx]

looked more like a turn protection/free showdown raise to me and less of a pure value raise.

[ISF]

If you are raising the turn here to protect your hand/ For value, then what has changed? The one overcard? I am saying its easy as once you were not threebet on the turn you hand is usually ahead of the range of hands your opponents have. Yes it is likely that one was on a flush draw and will fold but not that both are, and not likely that that king helped anyone that called two on the turn. I think that given that you were not threebet you are much more likely to be up against a low pp, a five or a 2, and hance this river bet is pretty +EV.

[Justin A]

The call the flop and lead the turn line when a scare card hits is almost always weak.

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
edit: if you thought 66,77, a pair of 5's or 4's wouldn't call this river, you are wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who said anything to the contrary. Sure 66, 77, x5, and x4 are possible calling hands. The issue is really how often you bet your hand and get calls with the mentioned hands or worse.

Folded draws don't help you, and checkraises are bad. Calls with better hands are not good. The only things you REALLY like are calls with worse hands. If the answer here is TRULY often enough... then you are right.

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
The call the flop and lead the turn line when a scare card hits is almost always weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

... or many times a gaybet draw.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
ok ive been doing this a lot online, betting river, folding to a raise. but im going to start doing it less. the times im calling w/ AK on a A76J2 board after they river raised me im being shown J3 too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone remember a post by StellarWind in Small Stakes where he talks about calling river raises? It's from a long time ago but very good. Basically the gist was that in a passive game (which 5/10 6-max is) there are a lot of players who are very rarely raising the river even with fairly strong made hands, but they WILL bluff sometimes. For players of this type the math comes out highly in favor of calling river raises since a large portion of the combinations they might be raising are bluffs.

It's an interesting step beyond the "How often do I have to be good based on the size of the pot?" question to "How often do I have to be good WHEN this player raises? Which is not often."

[Michael Davis]

"For players of this type the math comes out highly in favor of calling river raises since a large portion of the combinations they might be raising are bluffs."

Interestingly, mike l. made this point to me just yesterday when talking about a passive player who tried to bluff him on the river: "the bet has to be either the nuts or a bluff." That's not a raising situation, but it's exactly what you're talking about.

-Michael

[MAxx]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are raising the turn here to protect your hand/ For value, then what has changed? The one overcard? I am saying its easy as once you were not threebet on the turn you hand is usually ahead of the range of hands your opponents have. Yes it is likely that one was on a flush draw and will fold but not that both are, and not likely that that king helped anyone that called two on the turn. I think that given that you were not threebet you are much more likely to be up against a low pp, a five or a 2, and hance this river bet is pretty +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be raising turn as a superior alternative to calling down. Don't know Mike's intensions.

Does the Rivered Card change much. Well, IMO it detracts a little further from an already precarious board.

Sure the lack of a 3bet on the turn is a positive sign... but not as automatically conclusive as you may be thinking.

BTW I am just discussing, not trying to assert correctness as I recognize the always present possibility that I am flat out wrong.

[DrGutshot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
edit: if you thought 66,77, a pair of 5's or 4's wouldn't call this river, you are wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who said anything to the contrary. Sure 66, 77, x5, and x4 are possible calling hands. The issue is really how often you bet your hand and get calls with the mentioned hands or worse.

Folded draws don't help you, and checkraises are bad. Calls with better hands are not good. The only things you REALLY like are calls with worse hands. If the answer here is TRULY often enough... then you are right.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO the fact that there are 2 opponents that could pay off makes this a bet for me. Often you will get called by one or both with worse hands. Maybe I'm too used to 10/20, but I dont think they're folding a pair here very often.

-DrG

[ggbman]

Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

[Your Mom]

[ QUOTE ]
Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

[/ QUOTE ]

You raise to fold hands like KT that have 6 outs. If they do call with their 6 outs, then they are making a mistake. Unfortunately, sometimes that mistake wins them the pot as it did here.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

[/ QUOTE ]

You raise to fold hands like KT that have 6 outs. If they do call with their 6 outs, then they are making a mistake. Unfortunately, sometimes that mistake wins them the pot as it did here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the K10 doesnt have a club, he's not calling one turn bet anyway. If he has a club, he has lots of outs and isn't folding regardless. You don't gain anything by raising here in the long rrun, you usually get more money in when you are beat.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

[/ QUOTE ]

You raise to fold hands like KT that have 6 outs. If they do call with their 6 outs, then they are making a mistake. Unfortunately, sometimes that mistake wins them the pot as it did here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the K10 doesnt have a club, he's not calling one turn bet anyway. If he has a club, he has lots of outs and isn't folding regardless. You don't gain anything by raising here in the long rrun, you usually get more money in when you are beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

you didnt read the results did you? a KT with no club called.

This raise is pretty mandatory with a hand like 99. By not investing an extra BB you can easily lose this pot. You are also in prime position to do what mike did and take the free showdown, so it costs you the exact same price as calling down.

[Your Mom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

[/ QUOTE ]

You raise to fold hands like KT that have 6 outs. If they do call with their 6 outs, then they are making a mistake. Unfortunately, sometimes that mistake wins them the pot as it did here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the K10 doesnt have a club, he's not calling one turn bet anyway. If he has a club, he has lots of outs and isn't folding regardless. You don't gain anything by raising here in the long rrun, you usually get more money in when you are beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

You might want to take a look at the rest of this thread. I'm guessing you'll find in interesting.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Im suprised i'm the first one to say this here, but Mike, i don't like your turn raise. Your raising a paired board with a 3 flush and a 3 straight with 99. You could still be good here a lot of the time in this game, but please tell me when you think raising is good. Obviously no one is folding an 8 here, and no one is folding a hand that beats you. Yeah maybe he had A5 with the ace of clubs, but thats the only hand i see betting ther turn with that your ahead of at this point. Your goal should be to see a cheap showdown at this point, not get more money in the pot. There are so many different player types at 5-10, some will cap with an 8 here and others will call down with a straight or 888, but raising the turn seems poor here. Care to explain your thoughts?

Gabe

[/ QUOTE ]

You raise to fold hands like KT that have 6 outs. If they do call with their 6 outs, then they are making a mistake. Unfortunately, sometimes that mistake wins them the pot as it did here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the K10 doesnt have a club, he's not calling one turn bet anyway. If he has a club, he has lots of outs and isn't folding regardless. You don't gain anything by raising here in the long rrun, you usually get more money in when you are beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

You might want to take a look at the rest of this thread. I'm guessing you'll find in interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, and maybe next time someone rivers quads on your top set you'll come to the conclusion that you should fold AA pre-flop, don't be results oriented here. What i'm saying here is that against a normal range of hands here, i don't think raising was correct. It may have been given their hands, but the fact remains that raising a paired board where there are 3 to a flush and 3 to a straight with no strong redraw is sub-optimal in my opinion. Instead of using a bet to raise here into possibly a better hand, why not just call down, as maybe UTG will bluff the river. It's more then likely given his horrendous turn bet. It's really just a simple matter of logic. NO ONE IS FODLING A HAND BETTER THAN YOURS. If they a crap hand, they will fold to your raise. You're telling me you think this is a good spot to raise 99 for value. Now if mike comes out and says UTG is a loose cannnon and bets into scary boards with 6 high, that would be one thing, but without reads here i would adamently maintain that raising is not a good move. If you have a serious response i'de love to hear it, but bullshit about protecting against K-10, because we all know that won't be a factor most of the time.

[mike l.]

not going to get too involved here, but i raised the 99 there because i figured it was still the best hand most of the time and i wanted to charge flush draws and overcards the max. if one of these guys 3 bet me (and there was no reason to believe they were maniacs) i wouldve folded.

as for why i checked behind the river it was just an intuitive check. i certainly understand the value of betting the river there and getting called sometimes in two places by much worse hands. but i was a little worried about sb cold calling the two bets on the turn. it was possible he had a flush, straight, or 8. also i did not have to conclude bb did not have me beat just because he didnt 3 bet the turn. that said, i did not raise the turn with the plan of checking behind on the river. if an overcard not making a 4 straight or flush had come i wouldve bet. and an T also seemed like a safe card (althogh i was wrong) as well as pair the bottom card on board or another 8, i wouldve bet all those. and i ive seen some pretty passive bad play with big hands on the 5-10 max the past week. everyone's play is very erratic and confusing in general.