Very Tough Call on the Turn with Set

[Godfather80]

Live 6 handed Pot Limit Hold'em with $.25 and $.50 blinds.

Relevant Stacks:
Hero in CO: ~$45.25
Button: ~$18.00
BB: ~$41.00

Hero is dealt 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif. Folded to hero who min raises to $1.00. Button calls. SB folds. BB calls. $3.25 in the pot.

Flop: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks. Hero bets $2.50. Button folds. BB calls. $8.25 in pot

Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB checks. Hero bets $8.25. BB raises pot, a raise of $24.75. Hero thinks for a long time and (possibly in error) calls. $74.25 in the pot.

River: 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero puts BB all-in for another $4 or so. BB calls.

Result: BB shows J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the flopped straight. Hero wins pot with full house.

Here is my thinking on the hand:

Preflop- I didn't want to raise to more than $1 because the BB is very aggressive and likes to reraise. So, I raised an amount which suggested I could have anything, but wasn't very likely a steal attempt which he could pick-off. 88 is strong with just the button and blinds left to act, but I didn't want to build a large pot preflop just to fold when overcards come on the flop.

Flop- Seems dangerous, but I hit my set and I can't just give anyone with a draw free cards. The BB checked, so I made a fairly standard continuation bet of ~3/4 of the pot. When the BB called it, I was a bit upset, but I'm way ahead of a lot of hands that call here. (I'm also way behind a straight or over-set, but I can't really do anything about that).

Turn- BB checks again which was really strange, but now I've got 2 spades on the board. Because I put BB on a top pair or two-pair hand and he would probably only call preflop with a suited hand in that situation, I am nervous about the flush draw. If he doesn't already have the straight, he may have as many as 9 outs (with 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8/images/graemlins/spade.gif) and I want him to pay to draw out). So, I bet the pot.

When he makes the maximum reraise, I start to calculate. The pot gives me 2:1 on the call, with the implied odds being a bit higher because he will put in his last ~$4 no matter what the river is. I figure that he has the straight 75% of time here, a set of 9s 5% of the time, a set of 7s 5% of the time, two pair 10% of the time, and a weird semi-bluff hand like A /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif or T /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5% of the time. I know that these numbers may not be correct but they stem from my feeling that he would bluff (not have an overset or straight made) 1 time in 5 when he makes this play.
Given my breakdown, I figured that I'm ahead 20% of the time and will get drawn out about 3.5%, which means I win 16.5% of the time when I'm ahead.
I'm behind 5% of the time to 99 and have only 1 out to win and 4 to tie. I give myself .5% to win against that hand. So I'm up to 17.5% roughly.
I'm behind 75% of the time to a made straight, but have 10 outs to catch up. Which gets me to 16.3% against a made straight.
My total pot equity before the turn call was ~33.8% and since I was getting slightly higher than 2:1 I called.

Of course, my thought process wasn't that in depth when I called. I just figured 1 time in 5 I'm ahead and I'll make a boat another 1 time in 5.

Thoughts?

[Godfather80]

I forgot to mention one other factor that led to my turn call. BB knows that I will play my hands very aggressively early and tend to play tight. He also knows I'm willing to fire twice at a pot with overcards only if I sense weakness. I figured that he thought I had TT or JJ or A9 or A8 at best or AK at worst.

[Wayfare]

Did you consider checking behind on the turn and re-evaluating on the river? This is an obvious scare card and you bet the pot on the flop, indicating a made hand. On the turn it seems like a great time to take the pot away from you, especially if you weren't as strong as you were (which most of the time will be the case).

Of course, if you check the turn you are ~23% to fill up, and you can evaluate his river action before acting. I think that on a board this scary that hinges so much on the river card, you should shield yourself from making big mistakes instead of pumping the pot further.

[Godfather80]

Wayfare, as stupid as it sounds, I never even considered checking behind on the turn, which now seems to be the obvious and best play. I would have kept the pot small and could have called on the river if I was really curious whether I filled up or not.

What do you think of my analysis of his possible hands on the turn? I've been trying to do this all the time since reading Harrington's book.

[Wayfare]

I almost always try to break down the opponent's likely holdings, but sometimes it leads to over-analyzing, especially from giving the other guy too much credit.

IMO, I would have given a higher possibility that he has something like two pair, or pair vs. flush draw, than the made straight. It's strange that he made the raise when a scare card came off, since he'll probably lose the action of everything but a set and the idiot end.

I think that you should also give a couple %'s to the possibility you are crushing him when he has like A9 /images/graemlins/club.gif and is using the scare card to get out of line.

[Malachii]

Godfather, I'm hardly an expert on no limit / pot limit games so I don't really want to comment on the turn play other than to say it's a very difficult decision. I'd probably check behind him though and try to fill up for free. However, like you I am using Harrington's book to try to take a more mathematical approach to the game. A book which has helped me is called "How to Calculate Quickly - Full Course in Speed Arithmetic" by Henry Sticker. If you're going to be using as mathematical of an approach as Harrington suggests, it is absolutely essential that you be able to calculate swiftly and accurately. This book can help.

[Godfather80]

I give online players much less credit for made hands when they make moves and I have no specific read. Live, however, I think people are generally tighter for a number of reasons. But, the fact that he moved on the turn, making almost every hand but mine fold when he could have used the draws, was certainly strange.

I'm still looking for others' comments on my percentage breakdown.

[iceman5]

"Preflop- I didn't want to raise to more than $1 because the BB is very aggressive and likes to reraise. So, I raised an amount which suggested I could have anything, but wasn't very likely a steal attempt which he could pick-off. 88 is strong with just the button and blinds left to act, but I didn't want to build a large pot preflop just to fold when overcards come on the flop."

Ugh! I dont know why people like to min raise preflop. It doesnt suggest you have almost anything, its suggests you have a middle pair or Axs.

People in low limit games will still call you from the cutoff and button with KJ, QT, AT etc. So you accomplish nothing except you lose and extra $1 most of the time.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
"Preflop- I didn't want to raise to more than $1 because the BB is very aggressive and likes to reraise. So, I raised an amount which suggested I could have anything, but wasn't very likely a steal attempt which he could pick-off. 88 is strong with just the button and blinds left to act, but I didn't want to build a large pot preflop just to fold when overcards come on the flop."

Ugh! I dont know why people like to min raise preflop. It doesnt suggest you have almost anything, its suggests you have a middle pair or Axs.

People in low limit games will still call you from the cutoff and button with KJ, QT, AT etc. So you accomplish nothing except you lose and extra $1 most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

My response is exactly what I wrote in the original post, I didn't want to play a big pot preflop because the BB would reraise with any decent hand if he thought I was trying to steal the blinds. I don't mind if he calls or folds, I just don't want a reraise.