I only bluff the big streets...

[CallMeIshmael]

Reads:

UTG is a player I respect, and may very well be a two plus twoer. He is 19/10/4 over 300+ hands. But the 4 isn't like chip spewey stupid aggression. It is tactical aggression. If he is likely beaten, he will definitely slow down. His UTG raising/capping hands are probably what ours are: AA-JJ + AK. Also, in my notes, he fired a third barrel with AK unimproved on the river agaisnt a weak opponent. I don't know how he would act against someone who he perceives as strong.

Note: I respect this player, despite the fact his name contains the word 'dawg'. This says a lot.

Button in this hand is the exact opposite of UTG. She is a complete tard. Of 80/2/0.65 variety. Her coldcalling preflop and then calling on the flop could be anything. Basically, we know she has two cards. Because of this, UTG may lossen up on capping hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Darth is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Darth 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Darth calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Darth calls, Button calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Darth raises</font>....

Thoughts?

EDIT: I'll explain later why I don't like it.

[Aces_up07]

I think this is an interesting hand, how come no one else seems to? I really don't have any input on this hand, but was hoping someone else might.

so basically, this is a bump.

[shadow29]

I think I know who this is.

And if it's who I think it is, she's got you terribly beaten.

I don't like your turn raise. You're going to get 3-bet here a lot and have to fold. I'm probably just folding the turn here.

[Guruman]

IF UTG is truly a player you respect, then you have to consider where you may be against him. An UTG raise from a good player indicates high pairs or overcards, which gives him a wide range of hands that tie you or beat you in a small pot.

If he has any pocket pair or a jack + good kicker, his line could easily look like what you see here. This leaves only KQ and AQ (possibly JQ) that you are ahead of on the flop. His aggression could also mean a free-card push, but when he didn't check the river I call that an easy fold on a small pot.

I wouldn't put him on JJ here, since that would more likely illicit a check-raise on the flop.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I know who this is.

And if it's who I think it is, she's got you terribly beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ummm...

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is a player I respect, and may very well be a two plus twoer. He is 19/10/4 over 300+ hands. But the 4 isn't like chip spewey stupid aggression. It is tactical aggression. If he is likely beaten, he will definitely slow down. His UTG raising/capping hands are probably what ours are: AA-JJ + AK. Also, in my notes, he fired a third barrel with AK unimproved on the river agaisnt a weak opponent. I don't know how he would act against someone who he perceives as strong.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
You're going to get 3-bet here a lot and have to fold. I'm probably just folding the turn here.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, the possibility of a 3-bet from the player described is very small. I would be surprised if I'm 3-bet one time in 15.

[gaming_mouse]

UTG's hands....

AA - 3
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
AK - 9

So you are essentially wagering 2 BB to win 9 on the chance that:

1. you can push him off AK
2. he has AK
3. the bad player does not have a J

The chance that he has AK is 9/22, and let's call the chance that you can push him off of it x. Let's call the chance of 3. 90%, tho it may be higher.

(2/11) = (9/22)*.9*x

x = .49

So the bet seems reasonable if you think there is at least a 50% chance you can push him off AK. I'd say the actual chance of this happening depends highly on his read of you, but that it's certainly reasonable.

[shadow29]

Are you 100% positive it's a he?

What hand that raises UTG and caps PF doesn't 3-bet the turn here? AK?

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
which gives him a wide range of hands that tie you or beat you in a small pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot was capped 3 ways preflop. There are 9 big bets in there when the action is to me on the turn. If this pot doesn't even qualify as medium to you, what do you consider a big pot????

[ QUOTE ]
If he has any pocket pair or a jack + good kicker, his line could easily look like what you see here. This leaves only KQ and AQ (possibly JQ) that you are ahead of on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

a) I'm dead to QJ, not ahead of it.
b) How frequently does a solid player cap KQ UTG? When I said he might open up his capping hands, I specifically meant TT. Solids don't cap AQ or KQ OOP against another solid very often.

[ QUOTE ]
but when he didn't check the river

[/ QUOTE ]

What river? I've only included action up until the turn. Also (if you meant turn): note the note that I have on him.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you 100% positive it's a he?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't be 100%, but the avatar was a male. PM if you want to know the screenname of the player.

[ QUOTE ]

What hand that raises UTG and caps PF doesn't 3-bet the turn here? AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

AA, KK, QQ. I am confident that I am not 3-bet very frequently by any of these hands. Does AA wager 2-1 that I'm raising without a jack after all that aggression he's shown?

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG's hands....

AA - 3
KK - 3
QQ - 6
JJ - 1
AK - 9

So you are essentially wagering 2 BB to win 9 on the chance that:

1. you can push him off AK
2. he has AK
3. the bad player does not have a J

The chance that he has AK is 9/22, and let's call the chance that you can push him off of it x. Let's call the chance of 3. 90%, tho it may be higher.

(2/11) = (9/22)*.9*x

x = .49

So the bet seems reasonable if you think there is at least a 50% chance you can push him off AK. I'd say the actual chance of this happening depends highly on his read of you, but that it's certainly reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great, great post GM.

The reason I think this was a bad play is within your post.

PS: A tad nit picky, but, sometimes I improve against the hands that I am currently behind.

QQ: 6 outs
KK: 7 outs
AA: 4 outs

I am also, however, occasionally 3 bet by a hand that I have outs to draw against (not very frequently, IMO), which may offset this.

Also, the fact that I have to call his river bet should be incorporated, but I'm not exactly sure how.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

Also, the fact that I have to call his river bet should be incorporated, but I'm not exactly sure how.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he calls (or 3 bets) your raise, you can fold to a river bet UI very easily, IMO.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
If he calls (or 3 bets) your raise, you can fold to a river bet UI very easily, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I meant by that was: *IF* I just call, I have to call the river regardless anyway, because I know he can fire another barrel with AK.

And the odds would be there.

(9/22 chance of splitting * the prob. of him firing the barrel is, probably, greater than the pot odds I would be getting. This is, of course, mucked up is the button is still in the hand. BUT, she might overcall with a hand worse than AK, FWIW)

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's call the chance of 3. 90%, tho it may be higher.

(2/11) = (9/22)*.9*x

x = .49

[/ QUOTE ]
I understood your whole post except this one part. Where does the 2/11 come from, and what is "Lets call the chance of 3"?

[Shillx]

This would be the correct to play a jack in a 3-way situation (or even in a HU situation). His aggression is pretty high which means that he probably does a good amount of bet-folding, and if you can get the LP to fold, would be toss in a hand like QQ here? There is just about no way he is folding AK in this spot given the gutshot outs so don't even worry about that (this would be the main reason to raise here). There is probably no way that he would fold if the LP coldcalls (he is getting a better price on his calldown). So all in all I don't think this play will work very often and it is really a chip burner when he 3-bets because now you are forced to call that.

Brad

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's call the chance of 3. 90%, tho it may be higher.

(2/11) = (9/22)*.9*x

x = .49

[/ QUOTE ]
I understood your whole post except this one part. Where does the 2/11 come from, and what is "Lets call the chance of 3"?

[/ QUOTE ]

2/11 -- the pot is offering 9:2, which is 2/11 in chance form.

3 referred to number 3 in my list -- the chance that the other player does not have a J. .9 was just a guess, which you could improve by doing more analysis.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
There is just about no way he is folding AK in this spot given the gutshot outs so don't even worry about that (this would be the main reason to raise here).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a key point that I missed. Obviously he is aware of the gutshot outs too. And without the chance that he folds AK, the raise doesn't have much value.

[shant]

Ah, makes a lot of sense now. Nice post.

[CallMeIshmael]

I had no intention of calling the 3-bet.

The only hand that I feel he would 3-bet is TT (excluding the unlikely JJ).

From hands played with this player, I don't think he caps AA here on the turn.

[CallMeIshmael]

Gaming mouse and Shillx put together why I think this was a really bad play on my part.

Just to note: I think GMs figure might be a tad high, because sometimes he has like KK, and I hit on the river and collect another bet. I do have some equity against any hand he could have (other than TT, which I find out about real soon).

Even if his number is a tad high, it is still way higher than I would actually fold out AK.

I'm offering him 11.25-1, and there is no hand in my range (other than TT) that he is that much of a dog to. Most good players wont fold here.

If, however, the T were a 9, I like it a lot more.

FWIW, the button folded, he called, the river was a third jack, it went check-check, and we split with AK. NOTE: He held AdKd for the royal flush gutshot.