Bottom set - PFR wakes back up on the turn...

[meep_42]

Villain is unknown, but doesn't play every hand or none of them, hasn't been to showdown. (12 hands, played 4)

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, BB calls, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, BB folds.

Turn: (6.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: (14.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>


What's my river plan?

-d

[xpander]

Without a read I check-call the river and take notes. I have a lot of trouble analyzing hands like these.

[Nick C]

Did Button go all-in on the turn, or are you asking about your river plan?

[meep_42]

Yes, the river plan -- edited the OP -- seems that got lost in the cutting/pasting/formatting.

-d

[Nick C]

Possibly I'm just timid after all the monsters I got shown down against me Friday night, but I'm really worried about TT, QQ, and even 77 (in that order) at this point.

So I think I'd just check-call, hoping to see AA-KK (or possibly QT) or to find out my opponent goes nuts with even less.

I'd also be expecting to lose.

[CMonkey]

Can you really do anything else except check-call here? Villian could have a bigger set but he could also have two pair. You certainly can't fold for a single bet here getting 15.75:1 on calling down. Nor do you have enough information to definitively put your opponent on two pair so value betting is pretty much out.

[ErrantNight]

yeah, you can bet and call a raise.

[CallMeIshmael]

You are behind to QQ or TT here A LOT.

I think your hand is too good to show down, but I honestly don't think folding would be that big of an error, though I do think it is an error.

You have to check/call IMO. If he is a tard with like QT or AQ, then he will bet it for you.

I honestly think that betting out here is worse than check folding.

[SuitedDucks]

you have to check-call here. smooth call of raises on the flops followed by agressive turn action are usually not a good sign.

[CMonkey]

With an apparent blank falling on the river, betting out should signal Villian to watch out if he only holds two pair (we called his turn cap and kept right on going, Villian is not a known idiot). So a good portion of the time he'll only call your river bet when holding two pair while he'll raise if he has a set. If he only has two pair, you win one, but if he has trips you lose two. Our set needs to be good somewhere in the neighborhood of 66% of the time; I doubt this is the case here.

[pshabi]

I think you guys are underestimating the chances of this being KK or AA. If you check and he has two-pair, he may check too after that turn and you win zero. If you bet and he calls with two pair, you win one. If you bet and he raises with two pair(rare, but not impossible) you've won two bets. Finally, if it is the dreaded set, you lose two.

I feeling pretty good in this situation.

[SuitedDucks]

i feel pretty solid that AA or KK will usually slow down on the turn after being raised on the flop and 3bet on the turn.

[djoyce003]

I lead out on the river again and call a raise. I think he has two pair or AQ here more often than he has a set. We don't know if he's tight or a LAG yet as we only have 12 hands...would he raise Q10 suited on the button, he would certainly raise KQ or AQ. I think this could EASILY be either of these three hands given the action. Having no reads, I'm leading my set again here. I think you are ahead of AQ, KQ and, maybe even QJ, more often than you are behind QQ and 1010. I think 77 is less likely.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I lead out on the river again and call a raise. I think he has two pair or AQ here more often than he has a set. We don't know if he's tight or a LAG yet as we only have 12 hands...would he raise Q10 suited on the button, he would certainly raise KQ or AQ. I think this could EASILY be either of these three hands given the action. Having no reads, I'm leading my set again here. I think you are ahead of AQ, KQ and, maybe even QJ, more often than you are behind QQ and 1010. I think 77 is less likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the turn cap that has me most worried. When Villain calls the flop checkraise and then pops the turn, I am thinking AQ and KQ and overpairs are still quite likely (and QTs is possible too, though I discount that somewhat because I think a lot of players would not raise that preflop). However, when Villain goes ahead and caps when Hero 3-bets the turn, I start seriously worrying about QQ and TT (and, to a lesser extent, 77).

[djoyce003]

Yeah I hear ya...i'm definitely worried about it too....that is why I just call a raise, and don't reraise. I definitely think they are a possibility as well...i'm just generally not as worried about set over set, and will go ahead put a little extra money in here. I'm thinking it doesn't really matter from an EV standpoint...it's either +2 or -2 versus +1 or -1...the question becomes how often is it 2 pair or tptk and how often is it set over set. I am honestly not sure about the math, and it's fuzzy because you have to weight probabilities with how they've bet, but obviously there are more combos of AQ, KQ, QJ, Q10 than 1010 or QQ.

[ErrantNight]

i didn't say you SHOULD... it's just the only other line given that check/folding and betting/3-betting are both way out.

[CallMeIshmael]

I'm still not convinced that betting is better than check folding. Though I do feel they are both wrong.

[Shillx]

Check and call. Betting is probably dominated by check/calling in this spot, but the fact that he might have QT makes it harder to say. Let's just say that the villian either has a set or an overpair like AA.

If you bet: He calls with AA and raises a set. So you either win one bet or lose two bets.

If you check/call: He bets AA and a set and you either win one bet or lose one bet.

Of course if he can have QT and raises your river bet then it makes betting a slightly better option. But if he just calls the bet with QT then again it is pointless to bet the river. Imo check/calling is the best play here, and it isn't even close.

Brad

[ErrantNight]

this is a huge pot. check/folding would be much, much worse than betting/calling a raise.

[DiamondDave]

Bet and call a raise.

[CallMeIshmael]

I now retract my statement that in this situation betting and calling may be worse than check/folding.

After having thought about it, I realize (but did not intuitively know) that as the probability of your opponent betting when checked to in a HU sitution approaches 1, this condition set approcaches impossible:

1. Checking and calling is +EV
2. Both betting/calling and check/folding are -EV
3. Betting/calling is worse than check/folding

I would assume that the probability of this opponent betting when checked to is very close to 1, and thus that condition set is almost certainly not possible.

I would say betting and calling is a mistake on the order of roughly 0.75BB.

While checking on folding is a mistake on the order of, perhaps, around 1.5BB.

Just to save a little face: I never advocated anything other than check calling. And both are, IMO, very large mistakes.

[chief444]

Don't bet. But don't fold.

[meep_42]

Lots and lots of check/calls -- that's what I did.

Villain bets the river for me, I call, he tables AA and MHIG.

-d

[zephed56]

[ QUOTE ]
Check and call. Betting is probably dominated by check/calling in this spot, but the fact that he might have QT makes it harder to say. Let's just say that the villian either has a set or an overpair like AA.

If you bet: He calls with AA and raises a set. So you either win one bet or lose two bets.

If you check/call: He bets AA and a set and you either win one bet or lose one bet.

Of course if he can have QT and raises your river bet then it makes betting a slightly better option. But if he just calls the bet with QT then again it is pointless to bet the river. Imo check/calling is the best play here, and it isn't even close.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you think about check raising the river?

Instead of getting 1 when ahead and 2 when behind with bet-calling, we get 2 when ahead and 3 when behind.

[yecul]

Well, I saw the results already, but I'd definitely lead out here and call a raise. If you lose set vs set then so be it, but more often than not you're looking At AA, KK, or Qx in this situation (AQ or KQ most likely, obviously).

The smooth call on the flop didn't represent a set, but rather the opportunity to "save" the raising for the turn with the larger bets.

[zephed56]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I saw the results already, but I'd definitely lead out here and call a raise. If you lose set vs set then so be it, but more often than not you're looking At AA, KK, or Qx in this situation (AQ or KQ most likely, obviously).

The smooth call on the flop didn't represent a set, but rather the opportunity to "save" the raising for the turn with the larger bets.

[/ QUOTE ]
I saw the results at the end too, but before I saw it I was wondering why everyone wanted to check-call the river.

I want to put in more bets, and I think the best way to do that is to checkraise the river. It's a bit better than bet-calling.

We will get a river bet from villain nearly 100% of the time.

[meep_42]

I really don't like a river c/r, because if villain 3-bets, we either lose or he's a moron, but we're committed to calling it down, I just don't think we're good -that- much here.

I was about 50-50 between check/call and bet/call, leaning towards bet/call, but chickening out at the end.

-d

[DocMartin]

As a couple of other posters pointed out the turn cap makes a big difference. If the turn raise was only called I would bet the river. Since it was capped I go into check/call mode.

[zephed56]

Eh, I guess yer right. However there are many players against whom I want to put more bets in on the river.