turn play

[big_river]

This is my first hand post, so verbal thrashings as well as helpful advice are both welcome.

BB is fairly L/AG. What is my play here?

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero ???

[skoal2k4]

raise

[big_river]

How would you deal with a re-raise? Call, and call down the river?

[UncleSalty]

I'm not sure I agree w/ the raise here since we're in between BB and the button. Button could be ahead w/ AA, KK, AK, or possibly TT and we're risking getting 3-bet in a 3 handed pot. Either one of these guys could hold a K.

edit: Come to think of it, without any reads, I'd say the only hand button could 3-bet with PF that we are ahead of is JJ. I'd call BB's turn bet and possibly fold to a button raise.

[elbuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
raise

[/ QUOTE ]
So BB is lag enough to bluff into two preflop raisers? And the other preflop raiser who has yet to act, if he hasn't caught a piece of this board, won't fold for one but will fold for two? What is the plan if we are 3-bet by either BB or button?

[skoal2k4]

You raise to see where you stand. If you're re-raised, then you can decide to call down or fold. But calling this raise is like saying, "ok, i think you have a king and I can't beat that so I'll just call and see what happens"

[aron]

[ QUOTE ]
"ok, i think you have a king and I can't beat that so I'll just call and see what happens"

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that really so bad? Not being sure wether you are beat or not in a big pot, it seems OK to just call down to get a cheap showdown.

Just elaborating here. Not really sure what to do.
Call maybe and fold if raised behind.

-aron

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
You raise to see where you stand. If you're re-raised, then you can decide to call down or fold. But calling this raise is like saying, "ok, i think you have a king and I can't beat that so I'll just call and see what happens"

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess in light of the pot size I'll agree w/ this. One extra bet isn't going to kill us if it folds the button and puts BB on the defensive. Still, I'm pretty sure we're beat here a large percentage of the time.

[@bsolute_luck]

i'd call down, but that's because i don't see what raising does and i have major "monsters under my bed"-itis.

a LAG would definitely 3-bet a K- AK, KK, Kxs. i don't see how raising helps you find "where you stand". he reraise your raise, you fold a big pot? either way i think you're in it 'til the river, so why give him more chips if he does have the king?

[MagicFlea]

yeah I think that's exactly what you're saying... "I think there's a 80 percent chance you have a K so I'm gonna call down since my odds are 6-1 (accounting for a river bet)"

yeah I call down

[MagicFlea]

more importantly, if the LAG is pretending to have K, he may 3 bet anyway

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
You raise to see where you stand. If you're re-raised, then you can decide to call down or fold. But calling this raise is like saying, "ok, i think you have a king and I can't beat that so I'll just call and see what happens"

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow no wonder my postflop aggression factor is only ~2.2

Putting 4 bets into this pot on the turn and river seems crazy to me, but what do I know. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Brad

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're re-raised, then you can decide to call down or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok, i think you have a king and I can't beat that so I'll just call and see what happens

[/ QUOTE ]
1st method cost of seeing showdown: At minimum 3, and probably 4 or 5 BB between turn and river

2nd meth cost of seeing showdown: At maximum 2 BB (assuming you will fold if button raises)

1st method cost of folding(if re-raised by BB or Button): 2 BB

2nd method cost of folding(if re-raised by Button): 1 BB

I think the decision is clear.

[godduo]

I'm folding here. I see no way that I am ahead at this point. BB is representing a King and there isn't much the button could 3-bet with pre-flop that I'm ahead of. I expect the button to have AK as I would expect a flop raise if he had an overpair, such as JJ. If the button has AK he will almost certainly raise here and be 3-bet by the BB. I don't want to be caught in between all of this when I'm probably third in the hand.

[mungpo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You raise to see where you stand. If you're re-raised, then you can decide to call down or fold. But calling this raise is like saying, "ok, i think you have a king and I can't beat that so I'll just call and see what happens"

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow no wonder my postflop aggression factor is only ~2.2

Putting 4 bets into this pot on the turn and river seems crazy to me, but what do I know. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

It is crazy. Why reraise on the turn if you are going to fold to one bet? Just call down from the turn.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[skoal2k4]

point taken... after reading, it does make since to just call down

[big_river]

Let me just start by saying how much I appreciate all the advice everyone gave. I love this website and all the people that contribute to it. You can't buy feedback like this anywhere!

When I first typed up the hand post, I said to myself this has got to be an obvious raise. Maybe that's because I'm trying to convince myself I need to be a tad more aggressive on the turn/river.

The only hand I could put the Button on was AK. I couldn't see any hand that he would three bet before the flop, but just call on the flop. JJ maybe, but I thought that would merit a raise on the flop from him. That BB woke up when the K came on the turn scared me a bit. The thought of cleaning the puke out of my laptop if BB showed down with K-2o was not appealing. So I folded.

But, the pot was decent sized, and I could still have had the best hand. Is this a situation where you could decide to call or raise based on pot equity? I read SSHE a few times and pot equity is one of the concepts I'm still trying to get my arms around. Could I figure that I'd win the pot 40% (just for arguments sake) of the time and that would justify a raise, since there would probably be three people in at showdown (40% being &gt; than 33%)? Or would the opposite be true: I'm probably only going to win less than 33% of the time?

[FishHooks]

calling down is to me the best play. You might be beat but with the nice sized pot, you will proboly win at least 10% of the time making this profitable.

[big_river]

This (I think) is related to my pot equity question in my last post. Say for arguments sake that I have to just call two bets to show down (1 on the turn and 1 on the river). Does that mean I have to win &gt; 20% of the time to have pot equity to make the calls?

If not, does anyone know how you would figure this out?

[FishHooks]

you have to win about 15%+ of the time using implied odds, 2 bets to win about 14ish depending on who folds on the turn. You have about 5% chance of spiking another queen on the river and another 10% of the time your pair of Q's are proboly the best.

[UncleSalty]

[ QUOTE ]
This (I think) is related to my pot equity question in my last post. Say for arguments sake that I have to just call two bets to show down (1 on the turn and 1 on the river). Does that mean I have to win &gt; 20% of the time to have pot equity to make the calls?

If not, does anyone know how you would figure this out?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're confusing pot equity with pot odds (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1902292&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=all&amp;vc=1#Post1902292)

[yellowjack]

Welcome to the boards.

In this hand, you're either way ahead, or way behind. In either case, you have 4% pot equity (2 outs) or as much as 85%-96% equity (he can have as little as 2 outs with his smaller pair, or gutshot w/ 3 aces left -- nothing in between.

It's definitely a sticky situation here. Since you're on stars, I personally would be inclined towards folding. Part of this is because I've lost 100+ BB recently on stars 0.50/1.00, a lot of it from calling down in situations like this.

All things said, it's either fold/call for reasons discussed.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. The pot is offering expressed odds of 1:11.25, which would be a clear call. But effective odds are only 2:12.25, or 1:6. This is much worse, and I don't think we're good 1:6 here.