Continuation bets

[colehard]

I am having trouble blowing a large % of my stack on continuation bets and then getting reraised on the turn. The following is a typical situation:

5 Seat $11 70%/30% pay structure - blinds 10/20 -stacks all about 1000

Hero posted small blind (10)
Hero has K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif

> UTG called for 20, CO folded, Call, Hero raised to 100 BB folded, UTG folded, Button called

Flop(5/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif)(pot 240)
Hero bet for 180, Button called for 180

Turn(6/images/graemlins/club.gif) (pot 600)

Now what?

[sofere]

At a full table this is an easy fold preflop. At a 6-person table, I may limp, but raising 5xbb is too much. Especially because you're out of position after the flop.

The continuation bet itself is way too big at 75% the pot. A coninuation bet should generally be between 40-70% of the pot (leaning closer to 50%). You made this hand too difficult for either one of you to get away from, and all you have is K high.

After the flop, the villain is screaming at you that he's not going away. He could have pockets, a flush draw, or maybe just an Ax that he's not getting away from (dependign on the players skill level, you could probably eliminate some of those hands). Either way, your beat most of the time. Check fold the turn. If he didn't get away from a 5-3-3 flop, he's probably not gonna get scared off by the 6.

Also, you just bled 30% of your stack on a pure bluff very early in a tournament. Generally not a good sign.

[KenProspero]

I agree the pre-flop raise is the problem here.

KJ is a marginal hand. I'd probably complete the small blind (full table or short table), but would fold if it was raised before it got to me.

Unless I hit my flop, I'm not investing any more here.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

The continuation bet itself is way too big at 75% the pot. A coninuation bet should generally be between 40-70% of the pot (leaning closer to 50%).

[/ QUOTE ]

If the only time you ever bet those amounts is on continuation bets, you can expect to get smooth called and popped on the turn real often by any kind of observant player. This is no different from finding people who minraise flops they hate and fold to any action over the top. The continuation bets really should be of the same size as bets that you will make with legitimate hands. 3/4 pot seems fine to me if that's how the original poster plays his hands normally. If he plays his real hands for a wide range of bets, including bets in the range you mentioned, then such a play is okay.

[ QUOTE ]
After the flop, the villain is screaming at you that he's not going away. He could have pockets, a flush draw, or maybe just an Ax that he's not getting away from (dependign on the players skill level, you could probably eliminate some of those hands). Either way, your beat most of the time. Check fold the turn. If he didn't get away from a 5-3-3 flop, he's probably not gonna get scared off by the 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be true because it's early in the tournament. But, as I mentioned before, if somebody thinks you're just making a simple continuation bet that you won't follow through on, they can call you with nothing knowing that you're likely to give up the hand on the turn. So it's not clear to me that you're necessarily beat here (EDIT: In this particular case, given the size of the preflop raise that was called, I'd be a little more leery. People calling 3xBB preflop raises are likely to have a wider range of hands, including many more that they'd be likely to lay down to heavy action).

I think a willingness to occasionally fire the second barrel on the turn after a flop continuation isn't a bad thing. Early in the tournament, it's probably unnecessarily risky, particularly if playing with people who haven't seen you before. But I think it's a tool that should be available if people are not giving your flop bets any respect.

[colehard]

My standard pf raise is 3 to 6 times the BB, more at the lower blinds as a 3BB raise at this level has no respect on these tables. Note that it is only a 5 seat table so UTG is really MP3.

I thought I had a good chance at 2 folds given the limps hence the bet - I was betting 90 to win 70. On these (5 seat turbo) tables I believe that most of the time A7, KQ and 77 up would have already raised, but I see that I didn't take position into account properly on this one.

If I am facing a flush draw is it right to give them 3 to 1 odds on flop? I know it is 4:1 to hit on the next card but that assumes that they don't get 4:1 odds at the turn too? that assumes a very large turn bet in this pot. I rarely bet <70% on the flop if I am going to bet. Perhaps I need to revise this down.

As it is I bet 300 on the turn and the opponent folded.

Part of why I got into this mess is because of slight tilt from the previous tournament where the reverse happened. I made similar bets and checked the turn with AJo. I then got bluffed off the pot by a 400 (Villain showing KJo). But then AJo is, of course, much stronger than KJo... lately I am really finding that any weakness is being jumped all over (perhaps people are getting good notes on me). Of course, it may just be that I am frustrated my bluffs aren't getting any respect. Most of the time this comes up when I have AK or AQ and miss the flop.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
If the only time you ever bet those amounts is on continuation bets, you can expect to get smooth called and popped on the turn real often by any kind of observant player. This is no different from finding people who minraise flops they hate and fold to any action over the top. The continuation bets really should be of the same size as bets that you will make with legitimate hands. 3/4 pot seems fine to me if that's how the original poster plays his hands normally. If he plays his real hands for a wide range of bets, including bets in the range you mentioned, then such a play is okay.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, this is very early in a tournament, so unless villain has some notes on you, he doesn't know what you normally bet. Secondly, continuation bets should have close to the same range as value bets, only weighted toward the lower end.
In this situation, if you bet 1/2 the pot, your giving him 3:1, not enough to make a flush draw profitable. He won't put you on a 5 or a 3, so you either have overs or pockets. If he will call a half pot bet, he will probably call a 75% pot bet IMO (either way it just looks like a continuation bet. And either way if he calls you get out.

[ QUOTE ]
This might be true because it's early in the tournament. But, as I mentioned before, if somebody thinks you're just making a simple continuation bet that you won't follow through on, they can call you with nothing knowing that you're likely to give up the hand on the turn. So it's not clear to me that you're necessarily beat here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this is yet another reason to keep the pot small with a continuation bet. Betting 75% the pot means that if you want to make another bet on the turn it would probably have to be all-in.

Following OP's line:
PF bet 100, 1 caller: Pot 240 Stack now at 900
OTF bet 180, 1 caller: Pot 600 Stack now at 720
Turn bet must be All-in to (a) not look weak, (b) not give odds)

50% Continuation bet
PF bet 100, 1 caller: Pot 240 Stack now at 900
OTF, bet 120, 1 caller: Pot 480 Stack 780
Turn, if you want to fire another round, you can bet 200-300 and still be left with a managable stack.

I still think this isn't the place for a second continuation bet though (no scare card hit...if a Q hit, and villain put you on A-broadway, there's a good chance he lets go even with mid pockets), and I still think that KJ is certainly beaten way too often to make this profitable.

[sofere]

Your playing in 6-person, $11 tourney....of course your bluffs aren't going to get respect in the first 3 rounds. Don't force it. Play value hands, have them think that you are bluffing, and make them pay up the yin yang.

[colehard]

Yes, thanks - I am just coming off a 17-35 buy-in (10/20 tables) downswing, partly due to being card dead and partly due to not being able to win a coin-flip with the best or the worst of it.

Runs like this always seem to make me play marginal hands and then try to magically make them do something for me by pretending they are KK and getting called by J2 that made a pair of 2s on the flop. Which, of course, just adds to the length of the run making me more frustrated and so on.

Back to basics like you say...

[Unarmed]

That's a pretty crappy flop for a continuation bet when Villain called and then called a raise PF. What sort of hand do you put him on and how does that flop rate to have hit him?

[colehard]

I'm putting him on a missed hand too. Perhaps one better than mine but I am trying to make it difficult/impossible for him to continue. About the only things I am worried are any pocket pair less than 88 or possibly A2 or A4 of spades which I probably can't push out. Perhaps any Ax spades would stick around.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm putting him on a missed hand too. Perhaps one better than mine but I am trying to make it difficult/impossible for him to continue. About the only things I am worried are any pocket pair less than 88 or possibly A2 or A4 of spades which I probably can't push out. Perhaps any Ax spades would stick around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good overcards raise PF on the button.
Crap overcards fold to your SB raise.
Small-Med PPs limp then call.

I'm saying you are either ahead here to a stupidly played QJ/T9/ etc. or beaten by a PP so just check the flop and re-evaluate based on his action.

[ZebraAss]

Great thread so far by the way...

To the OP: I like the risks you are taking but like everyone else said this is just about the worst place to do it. Listen to those guys...they are wise beyond their years.

[tricolore]

Instead of a traditionnal continuation bet and since you are out of position, why not check raise? If you check and:

1) He checks. Then you have a free card and can choose to fire on the turn if you sense weakness.

2) He bets. It's fair to assume he's trying to steal the pot. By CR, you send a much more powerful signal (represent high PP) and will have more chances of knowing where you stand, no?

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
2) He bets. It's fair to assume he's trying to steal the pot. By CR, you send a much more powerful signal (represent high PP) and will have more chances of knowing where you stand, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Several things wrong with this logic:
(a) Why can't you put him on a PP? Why does Villain betting out mean he's stealing? (this is a trap that many new players fall into...losing all their chips to an "I thought he was bluffing" hunch)
(b) If you check-raise, you are going to have to put in a lot of chips to have any fold equity whatsoever...
OTF, pot is 240, you check...he bets at least 100. The pot is now 340, you have to put in at least 300 to have any fold equity here. Boom...you just committed 40% of your stack to King high.
(c) The check-raise actually signals weakness IMO (if you had a hand, you would have bet out so as to not give the flush draw a free card).
(d) What do you do if he comes over the top or calls and the turn doesn't hit you?

[ QUOTE ]
1) He checks. Then you have a free card and can choose to fire on the turn if you sense weakness.

[/ QUOTE ]
I dislike this less than the checkraise. The problem is you need a turn card that doesn't hit him, but looks like it hit you. Its pretty much the same boat as the original continuation bet dilemma.

The problem lies in the original bet...it made a decent size pot with a very marginal hand.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

First of all, this is very early in a tournament, so unless villain has some notes on you, he doesn't know what you normally bet. Secondly, continuation bets should have close to the same range as value bets, only weighted toward the lower end.

[/ QUOTE ]

But you're probably going to want to make some continuation bets later in the tournament, right? I'm just saying that I think it's a bad habit to get into. If you will bet lots of hands lots of ways on the flop, then I think we agree that a smaller bet is good. If you tend to follow up your big hands with big flop bets, you better do that with your continuations as well.

I think firing on the turn has a pretty good chance of moving the opponent off of a flush draw or just two overs, either of which are plausible hands, to my mind. That said, I'd want to hold off on making this move unless I knew my opponent would also fold said hands, which it's hard to know early in a tournament. If I knew he wouldn't fold a hand like 77 here, then I'd probably hold off the initial continuation altogether. This enforces your major point that it is too early in the tournament for these kind of shenanigans.

[kspade]

[ QUOTE ]
Instead of a traditionnal continuation bet and since you are out of position, why not check raise? If you check and:
2) He bets. It's fair to assume he's trying to steal the pot. By CR, you send a much more powerful signal (represent high PP) and will have more chances of knowing where you stand, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming he bets the pot, how much do you then raise? All-in?

[tricolore]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he bets the pot, how much do you then raise? All-in?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the basic idea here is that given the stage in the tournament, my position and the hand I have here, there's no way I risk a continuation bet because I think I am getting called pretty much every time and I don't know where I stand. So I check.

Now what if he bets?
- I think at 150-200, I make it another 250 to go. Maybe it’s too weak, but that’s how I’d play some strong hands with a ragged flop anyways.
- Now if he’s aggressive enough that he overbets the pot, then I am probably folding and hope to use my weak image to my advantage next time

*Btw, since the guy called a 5BB pre-flop raise, I am not too worried about giving a free card for the straight and I assume (probably incorrectly sometimes) that it is not as much as a factor in this hand as are the PP.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
*Btw, since the guy called a 5BB pre-flop raise, I am not too worried about giving a free card for the straight and I assume (probably incorrectly sometimes) that it is not as much as a factor in this hand as are the PP.


[/ QUOTE ]

What about the flush?

[MonkeeMan]

Haven't read all the replies so I appologize if this has been covered.

Pre-flop: If you're going to raise here (I wouldn't) keep it to 3-5X BB. But 5X would be 10% of your stack, so this would be much too high IMO. 3X is much better.
Flop: Bet ~50% of pot. Since you only raised 3X, this bet is more in the 80-100 range.
Result: You lose little of the desired effect with a 3X initial raise, but bleed off less chips when called, saving about 15% of your stack.

[curtains]

Your continuation betting is the least important part of this hand. Most importantly you should not be raising to 100 from the Small Blind out of position, unless you have a VERY good reason, which you'll almost never have playing in an online sit and go.

Also I disagree with anyone who said this is a marginal hand to preflop, as I think it's a very easy call. If you werent in a blind you could consider folding, but you must call from the SB.

[curtains]

I understand the poster asked about continuation bets, but everyone should be focusing on this random raise to 100 out of the SB with KJo.

There's a reason you don't want to get so heavily invested with hands like this from the blinds, and its because of situations like this. They are very difficult to play, and you are going to miss a lot more often than you hit from the SB here, thus if you keep raising you are going to have to play in this spot a lot.

[tricolore]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I guess on a paired board, given the PF context and the fact that I didn't actually make a hand that I want to protect, I still choose to check and give a potential flush.

At the end of the day, if I invest more money into that pot I want it to be a strong bet and I want to get information if possible. That's why I think a continuation bet isn't so great --- many oppenent will actually see it as a continuation bet and call you with nothing. I don't like where that leaves me on the turn if it misses me... especially if a 3, 5, A or spade comes along.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

I understand the poster asked about continuation bets, but everyone should be focusing on this random raise to 100 out of the SB with KJo.

There's a reason you don't want to get so heavily invested with hands like this from the blinds, and its because of situations like this. They are very difficult to play, and you are going to miss a lot more often than you hit from the SB here, thus if you keep raising you are going to have to play in this spot a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the OP just got finished Harrington on Hold 'Em, thats all /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[nokona13]

Haha!

HOH did that to me too... You gotta be careful with continuation bets on the party structure. Though I've recently been very sparingly mixing them in when I have position, and it's been working for me. I've (finally) pretty much abandoned the continuation bet out of position...

[colehard]

LOL - funny thing is, it was discussion on this forum about continuation bets that made me go and buy the book! Now look at the mess I am in.

Anyway, 2 things are clear to me now: I need to pay better attention to position when raising (even when I beleive there is a 75% chance everyone will fold) AND I have a lot to learn about managing the pot size for future bets. The latter (pot size management) is something I haven't thought (or read) about alot so I am very appreciative for those comments. Great food for thought as always on this forum.

Cheers.