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gaming_mouse

03-21-2005, 03:33 AM

In hand 1, opponent was a TAG. In the second, he was unknown.

Who folds these?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, Hero caps, BB calls.

Flop: (11.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (8.66 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Hero ???

------------------------------

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, MP1 calls, 6 folds.

Flop: (5.33 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.66 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero ????

sthief09

03-21-2005, 03:36 AM

I wouldn't fold hand 1. it could easily be him taking a stab at it with a hopeless hand like AQ.

in hand 2 he's not value betting 1 or 2 pair and he probably wouldn't have raised the flop with no pair no club. I think that's an easy fold

wuwei

03-21-2005, 03:39 AM

Hand 2 sucks. bleh.

Hand 1 I would call. JJ and TT are possible. Or he could have ace high taking a shot at you. I think you're good here more than 1 in 9 times.

Elbie

03-21-2005, 07:21 AM

I would have called in hand 1 and folded hand 2 for the reasons given by Sthief and Wuwei

Michael Davis

03-21-2005, 07:23 AM

Sack up and bet the turn in hand 2. You might fold a hand with outs. And if you get raised you know you can fold unimproved on the river.

-Michael

gaming_mouse

03-21-2005, 07:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Sack up and bet the turn in hand 2. You might fold a hand with outs. And if you get raised you know you can fold unimproved on the river.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Michael,

I considered this, but given the way he played the flop, I felt it was very unlikely he had no club, and also that it was very likely he would raise. I'm still not sure I'm right about this, but I do think c/call, c/fold is better than the line you suggested.

Michael Davis

03-21-2005, 07:43 AM

Why are you so sure he has a club? Couldn't he have a pair and a straight draw?

Also, this might be a sick nasty value bet with two pair against a lot of opponents. Not that many would make it.

-Michael

gaming_mouse

03-21-2005, 07:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you so sure he has a club? Couldn't he have a pair and a straight draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point. I still think it's more likely that he has a club (without doing the math on possible holdings that fit your scenario versus fit a high club scenario). Inducing a non-club str8 draw to bet the turn and river, and push me off the winning hand, would certainly be bad. But once I call the turn, I think very few players will bet the river again without a club, so that the line is actually not as dangerous as it seems. Do you think this is not true?

Michael Davis

03-21-2005, 08:00 AM

"But once I call the turn, I think very few players will bet the river again without a club, so that the line is actually not as dangerous as it seems. Do you think this is not true?"

Well, supposing the 9 doesn't fall on the river I think a fold is dicey but you're probably right. I still would feel much more confident in folding the river if I got popped on the turn, and it's 4/5 of a bet I'm willing to sacrifice for this knowledge. Unfortunately, by checking to him when the club falls you give him license to hijack.

Most hands that I could have I would check behind on the river after betting the turn but without the 9 I would definitely bet two pair. I'm not a normal player so maybe that doesn't count for much.

-Michael

gaming_mouse

03-21-2005, 08:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Well, supposing the 9 doesn't fall on the river I think a fold is dicey but you're probably right. I still would feel much more confident in folding the river if I got popped on the turn, and it's 4/5 of a bet I'm willing to sacrifice

[/ QUOTE ]

It really comes down to that. Is the 4/5 of the bet worth the knowledge -- or, more precisely, will someone without a club bluff both the turn and river more than 10% of the time? I think the answer is no, but I'll grant you that it's close.

I'm fairly sure that calling too much is still one of my biggest leaks, so I am leaning more towards a fold for reasons of discipline as well.

gm

Michael Davis

03-21-2005, 08:11 AM

"It really comes down to that. Is the 4/5 of the bet worth the knowledge -- or, more precisely, will someone without a club bluff both the turn and river more than 10% of the time? I think the answer is no, but I'll grant you that it's close."

The 4/5 of the money you lose when the pot gets raised is somewhat offset by the times your opponent folds or calls a hand that has straight outs or calls with a hand like two pair. Or doesn't raise with a smaller club, giving you the same options on the river.

-Michael

gaming_mouse

03-21-2005, 08:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]

The 4/5 of the money you lose when the pot gets raised is somewhat offset by the times your opponent folds or calls a hand that has straight outs or calls with a hand like two pair. Or doesn't raise with a smaller club, giving you the same options on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

More good points. You have convinced me, at the very least, that the decision is very close, and betting may be better.

Michael Davis

03-21-2005, 08:44 AM

If he's got anything but a flush he's got 9 outs to a chop. By the FTOP he has an easy call here with a straight draw. Give him a chance to fold. Having it go check-check here sucks too.

-Michael