AK river decision

[chio]

haven't seen MP get out of line yet. CO just sat down.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, CO checks.

River: (8 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>

at first i thought it was an easy fold. then i thought it was an easy call. then i thought raise. which one is it?

[DrGutshot]

call

-DrG

[Michael Davis]

I would have bet the river.

-Michael

[ToneLoc]

MP is market with high cards, which you are beating, so I do not think there is a need to raise. Also, CO will most likely call a raise with any pair, making it quite useless.
I would call.
And I do not think you should bet the river either, as you are going to get called by any hand that beats you.

[Michael Davis]

" as you are going to get called by any hand that beats you."

This is true but is not sufficient to indicate that the OP should not bet the river.

-Michael

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Concur

[mperich]

Im not sure if I like the river bet or not. Does he have AQ enough to fold? Does he have AQ more than the CO has a pair? Id bet it headsup but Im not sure about multiway.

-Mike

[ToneLoc]

This is true but is not sufficient to indicate that the OP should not bet the river.

The wording of your reply indicates severe Sklansy syndrome /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Thing is:
1. Opponents will probably call with all hands that beat you
2. They will probably fold hands that you beat such as AQ
3. You will IMO make more money by picking up bluffs after a check.

[Michael Davis]

Well it all hinges on how often your oppponents will bluff and I don't think it's very often in this situation.

What if the opponent in the middle has AK?

-Michael

[mperich]

Hmm ok you play good. Bet the river.

-Mike

[Apocalypse]

crazy idea perhaps?

lead out flop with the intention that MP will continue aggression making it an auto-raise there with either overcards or overpair and thus probably will knock out CO. Lead the turn to fold to a raise, or if called, go for a check-call on the river.

If CO coldcalls the flop, you can just check-fold the turn to any aggression.

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
lead out flop with the intention that MP will continue aggression making it an auto-raise there with either overcards or overpair and thus probably will knock out CO.

[/ QUOTE ]
this sounds ok

[ QUOTE ]
Lead the turn to fold to a rais

[/ QUOTE ]
this sounds not okay, as no hands beating me will fold for one bet on the turn, and i don't even get to see the river when i may be drawing to 4-5 overcard outs

[chio]

[ QUOTE ]
Well it all hinges on how often your oppponents will bluff and I don't think it's very often in this situation.
What if the opponent in the middle has AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

it certainly does feel like AK after he caps then checks the turn right? and a player who check the turn here with AK in the big pot will certainly fold most of the time on the river to a bet with another player to act behind him.

it's probably the best option, i never thought of it during the hand

[chio]

i folded, and MP called with AK and took the pot vs 85s bluff

basically i should have put MP on AK after the turn, because no one would ever check KK-88 there. fear of CO catching a pair scared me into folding the river when raising probably would have been the better play.

an even better play was probably betting the river, as MD suggested, as i still split if AK calls, he might fold, and might call with AQ. i feel like i got lucky that he showed weakness and i didn't even take advantage. thanks for the replies

[Benman]

I think we can agree that either check raising the river or betting the river is probably better than simply calling, since you've got to take a shot at driving out MP who might have you tied or even beat with a small pocket pair. Personally I like check raising best. You not only double the pressure on MP, but you have the added benefit of encouraging a bluff from the CO. Finally, you will every once and a while force the CO to fold after he bets with an actual hand that beats yours. He will fold a better hand to a check raise slightly more often than he would fold to a single bet which tends to look like a bluff. The big downside to check raising, of course, is that your pot odds go way down. I still like it best. Interesting hand.