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View Full Version : Is this the time to draw to 2-outs?

ihardlyknowher
03-21-2005, 02:42 AM
Villain (the flop bettor) is loose-passive.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villain bets</font>, UTG folds, MP2 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9 BB
Entity
03-21-2005, 02:44 AM
If he's loose-passive, then no, 15-1 probably isn't enough. It's not too bad, but you're going to need to be making an additional 7.5 bets up on the turn/river when you hit, which is tougher against a passive group.

Rob
Bradyams
03-21-2005, 02:46 AM
Fold preflop

Fold the flop

No, this is not the time to draw to two outs. The pot is much too small, and it's only heads up.
Stork
03-21-2005, 02:49 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope.

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop

No, this is not the time to draw to two outs. The pot is much too small, and it's only heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeap.
Entity
03-21-2005, 02:50 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop

Fold the flop

No, this is not the time to draw to two outs. The pot is much too small, and it's only heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding preflop is so [censored] terrible it makes my head spin.

Seriously, don't post two words worth of advice when you're going to be that blatantly wrong about it. Hero is getting 10.5:1.5 (7:1) to call preflop and that's well over what he needs to call with any pocket pair.
Bradyams
03-21-2005, 02:51 AM
Oopsies I didn't see that you were in the SB. Disregard my "Fold Preflop" statement.
ihardlyknowher
03-21-2005, 02:52 AM
It is not heads up. There are 2 other callers and I close the action. Does that change anything?
Bradyams
03-21-2005, 02:54 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop

Fold the flop

No, this is not the time to draw to two outs. The pot is much too small, and it's only heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding preflop is so [censored] terrible it makes my head spin.

Seriously, don't post two words worth of advice when you're going to be that blatantly wrong about it. Hero is getting 10.5:1.5 (7:1) to call preflop and that's well over what he needs to call with any pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he was on the button would you say call or fold?

Sorry I said fold preflop, I just had a brain fart there (didn't see he was in the SB), and I do agree that folding this out of the SB is a mistake.
Entity
03-21-2005, 02:54 AM
[ QUOTE ]
It is not heads up. There are 2 other callers and I close the action. Does that change anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Reread my first post. You're gonna have to make up a lot of bets to make it worthwhile.

Rob
Entity
03-21-2005, 02:55 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop

Fold the flop

No, this is not the time to draw to two outs. The pot is much too small, and it's only heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding preflop is so [censored] terrible it makes my head spin.

Seriously, don't post two words worth of advice when you're going to be that blatantly wrong about it. Hero is getting 10.5:1.5 (7:1) to call preflop and that's well over what he needs to call with any pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he was on the button would you say call or fold?

Sorry I said fold preflop, I just had a brain fart there (didn't see he was in the SB), and I do agree that folding this out of the SB is a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would probably call on the button if the blinds were loose.

Rob
caggin
03-21-2005, 03:02 AM
I think I'd call this on the button too, with 4 people already in the flop. If it's multiway and the table's loose and/or aggressive you have implied odds to call 2 cold with any pocket pair.

(And it's perfectly ok to post "wrong" advice. Someone here will correct you and give their reasoning. And that's how we learn! I think I learn more trying to respond to posts - even if I'm wrong - than posting my own hands.)
stoxtrader
03-21-2005, 09:33 AM
pre-flop is perfect.

the flop is close, let's look at the math...

you are closing the action (good)
you are getting 15:1 (good)
you are 22.5:1 to hit your set. So you will need to make up 4 BB on avg when you hit to make money.

of course you will hit and lose sometimes too, but I think you have a big enough overlay here to peel one. It generally take a near perfect situation to draw to 2 outs, but you have it here.

lots of ppl still in the pot.
a big pot to begin with
you are closing the action.

nice hand.