this one is so boring it only has two streets

[1800GAMBLER]

This hand doesn't really matter much either way.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, MP3 folds, Button calls, Hero ...

[Entity]

Any reads on MP2? Limp-cap PF is interesting.

I'm not folding getting 21:1 here, even though I'd really like to have the J/images/graemlins/spade.gif in my hand. I don't see that raising does much good, so I'm calling and taking a look at the turn and turn action.

Rob

[sthief09]

it sucks not having the J/images/graemlins/spade.gif but it would really suck folding the best hand. I would call because it's possible he's taking a stab or something and very very occasionally you'll get a free river card with the best hand that'll save you your 70% share of a 11 BB pot.

[surfdoc]

I think this hand is over for you. Even though you have close enough odds to call if your jacks are clean, the jack of spades is obviously tainted. Also, the limp reraise could be AA which has you in real bad shape.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
I would call because it's possible he's taking a stab or something

[/ QUOTE ]

So, mp2 limp caps and then bets out and the initial raiser calls. Which of these guys is taking a stab?

Gambler, do you have some of those stats that we all love and adore to bring in a little more data?

[sthief09]

if he needs 24-1 and he's getting 22-1, he doesn't need to have the best hand very often in an 11 BB pot to bridge that gap

you know those hands where you make a loose call on the flop and somethign weird happens and you end up winning unimproved? well, EV-wise those make a huge difference when looking at thin calls in big pots. if he has the best hand and the turn gets checked through 9% of the time, then he should call (he needs to recoup that 2 SB and it's an 11 BB pot, so 1/11 is 9%). it's like some weird twisted version of implied odds. call it "holy [censored] I won" odds

[Klepton]

just for reference, the limp-cap almost never means AA, as this is usually the mindset of the capper "it's going to get capped anyway, a)lemme actually try to show strength in my hand so i might take it down, or b) GAMBOOOOOOL!

i would bet out on this flop and see where it goes from there...raise from MP3 and you know you're toast, raise from MP2 could also be the same reaction

[Vaftrudner]

You can't mean you have the best hand here? Only that you can go for the odds? But the J/images/graemlins/spade.gif is a tricky maddafakka... /v

[Brom]

That limp cap looks real fishy to me. Unless I had some specific read on him I'd assume it's one of those idiot caps. He is probably the type to think that the pot is going to be capped anyways so he might as well do it. I think he has suited connectors or maybe Ax suited.

With the above in mind, I think that a flop bet might be OK here. MP2 could raise on a flush draw and probably knock out a few players that might either have you beat or might overtake you (a weak ace might fold here?). Also, if you bet and he raises (with a hand that is better than yours) you would be getting 23:1 odds to call that raise which is enough if you consider trip Jacks good enough to win. The J/images/graemlins/spade.gif may present a problem to you, but that is only if he is on the flush draw, in which case you were ahead.

With the line you chose, I'd probably just call to see the turn and see what happens from there. You may get a free river or you may face 2 bets cold on the turn, either way it is easy to play from there.

[Peter_rus]

I'd muck this on flop without care.

Edit: didn't figure it was capped 5-way. I call here without care:-)

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
if he needs 24-1 and he's getting 22-1, he doesn't need to have the best hand very often in an 11 BB pot to bridge that gap

you know those hands where you make a loose call on the flop and somethign weird happens and you end up winning unimproved? well, EV-wise those make a huge difference when looking at thin calls in big pots. if he has the best hand and the turn gets checked through 9% of the time, then he should call (he needs to recoup that 2 SB and it's an 11 BB pot, so 1/11 is 9%). it's like some weird twisted version of implied odds. call it "holy [censored] I won" odds

[/ QUOTE ]

I see the majority weighing in for a call here so maybe I am wrong but still not totally convinced. What about some weird twisted version of reverse implied odds when you spike the Js on the turn and face heavy action from a made flush or the river puts out a non-board-pairing-spade. Maybe we can call this "holy [censored] I spiked my card and lost 3 more bets because I did" odds.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
just for reference, the limp-cap almost never means AA, as this is usually the mindset of the capper "it's going to get capped anyway, a)lemme actually try to show strength in my hand so i might take it down, or b) GAMBOOOOOOL!


[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree that this move doesn't mean AA even 50% of the time, I disagree that it is AA "almost never." The 16/8/2.5 guy has AA here a lot.

[DcifrThs]

no Js, possible total domination and need to catch perfect perfect, not entirely closing the action, limp capper, id say this is a fold....i can't find a call given the action/board.

-Barron

[surfdoc]

okay gambler give us your thoughts and the results.

[Justin A]

Fold. It's a call if you have the J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

And you're right, it doesn't matter much either way.

[1800GAMBLER]

At first i thought it was a call, then a fold and but now i've decided it's a call.

Even if i say MP2 has AA 50% of the time what does he have the other 50%? AK? That's pretty much the only range of hands in which i shouldn't call. As if he's range is AA KK QQ AK if i have a decent chance of KK QQ checking the turn then my outs just doubled.

Yet and what i think is a more likely case than above, he'll have AA about 30% of the time, leaving 70% to any range of hands, if something like TT 99 88 is in this range it's a very bad fold given i may get to showdown cheap in a huge pot.

So in short i thought the reverse implied odds i have from hitting a jack and going against AA is outweighted by the good things that could happen, like a free card or him having TT.

So the turn was the Js. He bet, i raised not planning to fold to a 3 bet, he just calls, i value betted the river and he had AA.

edit: i strong disagree with all this 'your Js wont be good'.

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]


And you're right, it doesn't matter much either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you for verify.

[astroglide]

[ QUOTE ]
he had AA

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty cool of you to do this. high likelihood of setting off a party line "he has aces" discussion. you post the results that he did have aces, but still disagree. i don't think it matters much. but my point is many of us know how much of a pain in the ass it is to try to get a good discussion about something without running into the "DO THIS"/"SEE I TOLD YOU TO DO THAT" stuff. i think the desire to skip that whole cycle is a lot of what keeps most posts around here limited to AA/KK/AK.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
At first i thought it was a call, then a fold and but now i've decided it's a call.

Even if i say MP2 has AA 50% of the time what does he have the other 50%? AK? That's pretty much the only range of hands in which i shouldn't call. As if he's range is AA KK QQ AK if i have a decent chance of KK QQ checking the turn then my outs just doubled.

Yet and what i think is a more likely case than above, he'll have AA about 30% of the time, leaving 70% to any range of hands, if something like TT 99 88 is in this range it's a very bad fold given i may get to showdown cheap in a huge pot.

So in short i thought the reverse implied odds i have from hitting a jack and going against AA is outweighted by the good things that could happen, like a free card or him having TT.

So the turn was the Js. He bet, i raised not planning to fold to a 3 bet, he just calls, i value betted the river and he had AA.

edit: i strong disagree with all this 'your Js wont be good'.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I know I am simple, but you have me very confused. Your post leaves out the fact that you are not heads up in this hand. Your desription of the action also confuses me. Did you mean to say that you checkraised the turn and then value bet the river?