Crossposted 22 Hand

[sthief09]

I tried posting 2 hands in MHS but it was a complete failure as all I got was a good response from Michael Davis, who would've posted here anyway, and 2 worthless responses. so I give up on them and here:

I think this is at the Mirage 40 game. Aggro MP player (I wrote down that he fired 3 barrels with AK unimproved after raising one hand) open raises. he's called by a loooooooooooose passive (LP) guy. I call on the button with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif2/images/graemlins/spade.gif. blinds get out of the way.


Flop (3 ways, 7.5 SB): J/images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif

MP bets, LP guy calls, I call

Turn (3 ways, 6.75 BB): J/images/graemlins/heart.gif

MP bets, LP calls, I call planning to call a non-A/K river if I don't have to overcall or if LP doesn't bet, calling if a spade slides off, or checking if checked to

[edtost]

meh. boring.

[sthief09]

how the hell is that boring?

[Entity]

I'm mulling over the idea of the raise-fold-to-3bet line on the turn. Meh?

Rob

[sthief09]

meh becuase I'm probably going to fold the river like 2/3 of the time on the river, and it'll be a good fold unless they both have AK or AQ. also, neither player is folding here ever. those are 2 elements I need for a free showdown play to be best. I don't have either. it would just end up costing me a bet.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
meh becuase I'm probably going to fold the river like 2/3 of the time on the river, and it'll be a good fold unless they both have AK or AQ. also, neither player is folding here ever. those are 2 elements I need for a free showdown play to be best. I don't have either. it would just end up costing me a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

See, I can see LP calling the flop with A/images/graemlins/heart.gifX (or other combos similar to that, 75s, etc.) often enough that I'd like to get value from my hand when there's a chance I'm ahead. It's virtually impossible to be 3-bet here by a worse hand, and I understand the desire to save money when you're behind, but I can see enough hands being called by a loose-psasive player that justify raising here.

Rob

[gaming_mouse]

Josh,

what was your idea in calling a flop bet? even if neither of them has a J, you are going to have to dodge two bullets on the turn and river. Would you have folded if the turn had been, say, a Q or T? I normally would fold this flop unless I was HU. Is this wrong? Can you explain your reasoning in calling?

[edtost]

well, you really can't fold preflop, and you better not be raising. you're good on the flop a lot, but lots of turn cards blow, and they're not folding incorrectly, so you just call. the turn you pick up a mediocre draw and lp doesnt wake up on the board pairing, so you may still be good. raising accomplishes nothing, so you call. river seems similarly obvious.

then again, i suck at figuring out what to do on the easy hands, so i guess it evens out with these that seem obvious.

[sthief09]

I'm calling because I'm good sometimes and under the right circumstances I can continue. I would have folded most turn cards. I liked the heart and I liked the pairing of the top card.

[sthief09]

so you're trying to squeeze an extra bet out of the LP guy? if he'll call another bet but fold the turn, then yeah, I get an extra bet from him, but how often is it favorable for me. I don't really like the idea of charging this guy to draw when it's likely that either I'm the one drawing or I have 0-2 outs.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling because I'm good sometimes and under the right circumstances I can continue. I would have folded most turn cards. I liked the heart and I liked the pairing of the top card.

[/ QUOTE ]

so essentially you are gambling on a safe turn card?

but what are your various plans...

1. if it's a low blank and the action is again bet, call, you.
2. if it's a Q,T
3. if it's an A,K (I assume you fold here)

It just seems that since they are both probably seeing the river that your effective odds aren't good enough compared to the chance that you are already against a J plus the chance they hit one of their overcards or even undercards. Do you think this thinking is incorrect?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
so you're trying to squeeze an extra bet out of the LP guy? if he'll call another bet but fold the turn, then yeah, I get an extra bet from him, but how often is it favorable for me. I don't really like the idea of charging this guy to draw when it's likely that either I'm the one drawing or I have 0-2 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I was talking about raise-fold-to-3bet on the turn. Since there's a reasonable chance you're ahead of the PFR (it's close), and there's probably a slightly better chance you're ahead of loose-passive, but may not be ahead on a lot of river cards, I'd consider trying to get one bet in when I'm ahead and let me see a showdown.

This also really depends on whether or not LP will overcall the river with hands like Ace-high. If he will, I think we have to raise the turn.

Rob

[sthief09]

I'm getting 8-1. I need about 16 or 18-1 if you count implied odds. a 3, a 5, or a heart gives me enough draw to continue. that's 2 set outs and 16 continue outs. I'd be tempted to call if the board paired too. I think that would be a really thin call. the fact that my hand might be best is important too

[sthief09]

that's just theoretical money though. by my plan, I make 2 bets if I'm ahead by the river and lose 1 bet if I'm behind by the river. if I make my flush and he bets a worse hand on the river, then it doesn't matter that I didn't get my money in as a slight favorite on the turn, because I got it on the river when he's drawing dead

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
that's just theoretical money though. by my plan, I make 2 bets if I'm ahead by the river and lose 1 bet if I'm behind by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? That sentence confused me.

You also didn't say whether or not LP will call the river with Ace-high. Any ideas on that? I mean, I just got called on the river by a busted flush draw who played the board (he had 3s 2s on an A95T5 board) in a 20BB pot, so there are differing levels of loooooose passive. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[sthief09]

I don't know if I have it in me to bet the river. I also only vaguely remember the loose passive guy. I have a little book I write stuff in while he played, and I just had a bunch of things like "looooooooooose passive" and "loves calling"



you're trying to charge them while I might be ahead. that's a good thought and is basically why free showdown plays are so profitable. you get extra money in when ahead. but here, I'm only calling the river when I think it's profitable to. by charging them to draw out on me, I'm paying an up front price for the river, when, if I'm ahead by the river, they'll charge themselves by betting anyway. so I make 2 bets when I have the best hand at showdown, but I'll lose 2 bets, rather than 1, if I miss my hand and the action would have gone bet, call

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I have it in me to bet the river.



you're trying to charge them while I might be ahead. that's a good thought and is basically why free showdown plays are so profitable. you get extra money in when ahead. but here, I'm only calling the river when I think it's profitable to. by charging them to draw out on me, I'm paying an up front price for the river, when, if I'm ahead by the river, they'll charge themselves by betting anyway. so I make 2 bets when I have the best hand at showdown, but I'll lose 2 bets, rather than 1, if I miss my hand and the action would have gone bet, call

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm actually also trying to get you to be able to get money while you're ahead, and prevent you from having to make a tough, possibly -EV fold on the river.

Ace-high will get checked through oh the river unless someone makes a better hand. If you think loooooooooooose passive will fold Ace-high or hands that you are ahead of on the river, then raising here makes less sense (though there's still a case for it), but if there's a chance he'll call, prompting you to make a -EV fold on the river, it's a tougher decision.

Add in the value you get from the times UTG and LP are both drawing, and that's why I like it the most. Mostly because I don't have the guts to overcall on this river but I would like to see a showdown. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[sthief09]

what about when EP has A/images/graemlins/heart.gifAx and I'm completely screwed?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
what about when EP has A/images/graemlins/heart.gifAx and I'm completely screwed?

[/ QUOTE ]

You were planning on calling a river bet if LP folded anyway, right?

[sthief09]

yeah. even if I'm calling the river 90% of the time, ti doesn't matter because EP is betting the river every single time. I make nothing but theoretical money

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah

[/ QUOTE ]

So you aren't losing anything more when you raise the turn against AA w/the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

EP is gonna have a bitch of a time raising you with any hand you have sufficient outs to call with, and loose-passive seems like he's going to throw a wrench into your plans often enough on the river that I'd just raise here to make my life eaiser.

Rob

[sthief09]

if I'm making a good fold on the river, then I don't see how getting a free showdown changes anything. if the conditions are such that I'm going to fold, it's pretty damn likely I'm behind. raising the turn to save myself from folding the best hand when they both have AK isn't that valueable.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting 8-1. I need about 16 or 18-1 if you count implied odds. a 3, a 5, or a heart gives me enough draw to continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

You b/d flush must be discounted by more than 1/2, since only about 40% of the time will no other hearts be out. The b/d str8 needs exactly a 3 and a 5, and so is worth only about 1/3 of an out. So even taken together they do not get you up to a total of three outs, and so even with implied odds they aren't enough.

[ QUOTE ]
the fact that my hand might be best is important too

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, and IMO is the source of most of your equity. But this brings me back to my other questions about dodging two bullets.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
raising the turn to save myself from folding the best hand when they both have AK isn't that valueable.

[/ QUOTE ]

River is the 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. EP bets. LP calls. You??

River is the 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. EP bets. LP folds. You call (??).

River is the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif. EP bets. LP folds. You??

River is the K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. EP bets. LP folds.

I'm really wondering about how you deal with these situations before I can say whether or not I like calling vs. raising here. I don't think it makes a huge difference either way, though, to be honest.

Rob

[sthief09]

I'm calling with any heart in any situation

[sthief09]

I'm not really dodging bullets. I'm judging equity. him betting is a given. I have him on a range of hands and the LP guy on a range of hands.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

hi everybody, this hand is very simple.

preflop yes.

flop yes.

to gaming mouse, it is almost never inocrrect to peel here. for starters you may have the best hand combined with the possibily you may spike a st or improve to the best hand via bd straight draw and maybe nobody has a heart. if calling this flop is -EV, it's not that much. closing the action i would call almost all the time here with this board.

to entity,
i don't like raising the turn at all becaue it opens yourself up to a 3-bet and the value you gain "to charge their hands from drawing against you" is just too thin to even have to or want to worry about. calling again and re-evaluating is better. i think raising would be too -EV for it to work out in your favor for a variety of reasons. calling is already thin enough and you're not entirely sure you want to showdown this hand in the first place, so in all likelyhood its going to cost you a bb without even guaranteeing a showdown too. another important factor is getting 3-bet. yes you'll virtually never get 3-bet by a worst hand, but it will also cause you to fold a 2 outer, not an insignificant amount of times you'll hit either. but if you fold you'll never be able to get to those rivers and get lucky. call and re-evaluate is best.

josh's logic in this hand is perfect.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

calling any heart is a given once you make it that far.

[Entity]

I really like this hand. I'm glad you crossposted it.

I think some of my confusion came from you saying you were planning on overcalling if a spade came off, when you meant a heart.

Rob

[sthief09]

[censored] oops

[ErrantNight]

for those who missed it.