Very tough set decision [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

PokerBob

03-21-2005, 12:59 AM

Have only 5 hands on each villain, so I have no read. What do you do with this turn?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO (poster) checks, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, BB 3-bets, Hero ????????

crunchy1

03-21-2005, 01:04 AM

Cap. Every Time!!

Harv72b

03-21-2005, 01:07 AM

This is tough.

Unknowns, so I typically assume a decent but not great player at 3/6. UTG+1 would likely have raised TT preflop, so you're really only worried about 55 catching his set on the turn here. BB might have check/called with a gutshot or OESD, but to check a double 2-suited, T-high board if he hit his straight on the turn? Seems pretty odd to me.

You definitely can't fold, and I'm not convinced either one of them has a better hand. Maybe it's chip-spewing, but I'd cap it.

mtdoak

03-21-2005, 01:31 AM

Call and pray for the board to pair....but even if it does, don't go too nuts.

GrekeHaus

03-21-2005, 03:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Call and pray for the board to pair....but even if it does, don't go too nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
This seems like weak-tight advice. What hands are you worried about here? There isn't much that beats you. BB may very well have hit a set of 5s here, or he might just have two pair. I'd go ahead and cap for value and probably bet/raise the river.

PokerBob

03-21-2005, 07:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Have only 5 hands on each villain, so I have no read. What do you do with this turn?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO (poster) checks, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, BB 3-bets, Hero ????????

[/ QUOTE ]

I capped. Both called.

River: 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bet. I called. UTG+1 calls.

BB shows A2o, UTG+1 shows 33 and MHING.

philnewall

03-21-2005, 08:13 AM

It's an easy cap, even if your worried your behind, because a cap closes the turn action, so there's no risk of another raise.

ErrantNight

03-21-2005, 09:24 AM

bus' a cap on those mofos.

djoyce003

03-21-2005, 11:05 AM

Not tough at all, cap it. You are either still way ahead, or are drawing at a decent number of outs to fill up. I think if you capped every street possible with a set in every hand you ever play from now on, regardless of action, it would be +ev.

chief444

03-21-2005, 11:20 AM

I like a cap mainly because the 3-bet came from BB with no raise preflop. So two pair is probably more likely than it would be for UTG+1.

DeeJ

03-21-2005, 11:36 AM

call and hope for a flush card to give you a boat....

partygirluk

03-21-2005, 11:44 AM

If UTG+1 rightly raises this flop you might win this hand.

Super Pro

03-21-2005, 11:49 AM

i would call down and raise if the board pairs. you're almost always up against A2 or 76 here.

ErrantNight

03-21-2005, 04:49 PM

don't get caught up in thinking like that. there are times when this thinking will lose you lots of chips you shouldn't lose.

bernie

03-21-2005, 05:30 PM

Actually, it's a rather easy turn situation if you stop and think for a moment.

You call. Anyone saying to cap this given the information is in a dreamworld as to what your opponents are holding.

BB just woke up and check 3-bet the turn. That's usually a big hand. At least a set. Not bottom set either. This rarely happens with 2 pair or worse. Especially when UTG also just 'woke up and raised' on the turn. This makes BB hand likely even stronger. You have the 2nd smallest set out there. You also don't have the # of players to jam this pot.

Call and see the showdown cheaply.

b

bernie

03-21-2005, 05:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are either still way ahead, or are drawing at a decent number of outs to fill up. I think if you capped every street possible with a set in every hand you ever play from now on, regardless of action, it would be +ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

Brilliant. So basic handreading you can just throw out the window I guess.

b

bernie

03-21-2005, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's an easy cap, even if your worried your behind, because a cap closes the turn action, so there's no risk of another raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. This is a perfect reason to cap. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

b

pokerkai

03-21-2005, 05:47 PM

coldcall...capping i think is too much here as I dont see you being ahead enough given the bet sequence.

meep_42

03-21-2005, 05:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You call. Anyone saying to cap this given the information is in a dreamworld as to what your opponents are holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't want to be the weak-tight one.

I saw this and immediately thought that one of them had A2. So, i'd call as well. (My aggression is a bit lower than a lot of people's, though)

-d

bernie

03-21-2005, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't want to be the weak-tight one.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's nothing weak-tight about calling. Weak tight is folding. Anyone who thinks this is weak-tight has way too much ego in their game and isn't really thinking about the situation. They're just blindly throwing chips in seeing only their own holding.

[ QUOTE ]
(My aggression is a bit lower than a lot of people's, though)

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of people are overaggressive.

b

Nick C

03-21-2005, 05:59 PM

I agree with Bernie and Pokerkai and the others who have said cold-call. That turn check/3-bet by BB really does indicate a lot of strength. I guess it could be T5 or 33, but I'm thinking more likely he has a straight or (even worse for you) a bigger set.

Unfortunately, if UTG+1 really loves his hand, it's going to get capped anyway, but I'd like to get to the river for just three turn bets, if possible.

bernie

03-21-2005, 06:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately, if UTG+1 really loves his hand, it's going to get capped anyway,

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn check-3 bet should freeze UTG unless he has a very big hand. If he caps it, you're almost definitely behind in 2 spots at this point.

b

Nick C

03-21-2005, 06:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The turn check-3 bet should freeze UTG unless he has a very big hand. If he caps it, you're almost definitely behind in 2 spots at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

If UTG does cap the turn, what's your plan on the river if a blank falls? Also, what do you do if a ten falls?

bernie

03-21-2005, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If UTG does cap the turn, what's your plan on the river if a blank falls? Also, what do you do if a ten falls?

[/ QUOTE ]

If a blank falls, Im checking/calling the river. I didn't improve. If I am going to bet when a blank hits the river, I should've capped the turn.

If a T falls, if Im checked to, Ill bet it and call a raise.
If bet into, bet the BB, then I might just call.

If UTG only calls the turn, and a blank/T hits, then I'm betting if checked to. Calling if bet into.

b

Nick C

03-21-2005, 06:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If a blank falls, Im checking/calling the river. I didn't improve. If I am going to bet when a blank hits the river, I should've capped the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many bets would you call on a river blank? I'm asking because sometimes I think I pay off too often when I get trapped in a big pot versus two players who love their hands.

When I have a hand as good as a set, I have trouble finding a fold.

Guruman

03-21-2005, 06:55 PM

I think the fold comes from the fact that the pot was smallish on the turn before all of the betting.

All that turn action does two things to your low set:

1)It hurts your pot odds to call if you are behind.
2)It indicates that your opponents have A)just made a hand B)slow-played a hand that was made on the flop or C)decided to start firing a bluff into two players

Even if one of your opponents is indeed bluffing, the other probably isnt. You have to make a decision as to whether your up against a couple of two pairs or if you're behind a straight or higher set.

Treat the turn bet as an information/value bet. Since at least one of your opponents probably has you beat, you can now safely fold out of this smallish pot once it's re-raised back to you.

PokerBob

03-21-2005, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the fold comes from the fact that the pot was smallish on the turn before all of the betting.

All that turn action does two things to your low set:

1)It hurts your pot odds to call if you are behind.
2)It indicates that your opponents have A)just made a hand B)slow-played a hand that was made on the flop or C)decided to start firing a bluff into two players

Even if one of your opponents is indeed bluffing, the other probably isnt. You have to make a decision as to whether your up against a couple of two pairs or if you're behind a straight or higher set.

Treat the turn bet as an information/value bet. Since at least one of your opponents probably has you beat, you can now safely fold out of this smallish pot once it's re-raised back to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand should be folded 0.00% of the time.

Nick C

03-21-2005, 07:21 PM

Guruman

03-21-2005, 07:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]

This hand should be folded 0.00% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. Please help me see your logic here given the smallish pot on the turn.

Thanks!

djoyce003

03-21-2005, 07:25 PM

I didn't say he wasn't behind, it was a GENERAL STATEMENT, in that if you were to play every hand you had a set with super agressively from now till forever, it would be +ev. Are you telling me the set loses more than half the times in all these instances...come on....if you do, i'll have some of what you are smoking.

pshabi

03-21-2005, 07:29 PM

Had a similar hand last weak, but the board was really screaming straight. Laid it down and let two others build a giant pot that got taken down by two pair.

I threw up.

habsfanca11

03-21-2005, 09:07 PM

Have to add my agreement (with the others) to coldcalling this and calling down as cheaply as possible. Maybe it's just me living in weak-tight land but at 2/4 and 3/6 if someone comes alive on the turn or river (especially this strongly) it generally means they have the goods. My first thought was he probably hit his set of 5s on the turn. Especially in an unraised pot and especially from the big blind with this strong a move BB likely has you beat. Would appreciate any feedback or SOP advice because it seems I don't listen enough given some of the hands I'm running into. This is a great example where I would've plowed ahead with the set only to be behind.

Good post!

DiamondDave

03-21-2005, 09:58 PM

I cap the turn against most opponents.

Harv72b

03-21-2005, 10:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough. Please help me see your logic here given the smallish pot on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

When the action gets back to Hero, there are six big bets in the pot from the turn alone. Even if nobody caps the turn and the river is bet/call/fold (worst case in terms of pot size, IMO), you're looking at a final pot around 14 BBs. That is most definitely not "smallish".

Still the Spank E

03-21-2005, 11:10 PM

You sure look beat, don't ya? 'Looks like one of 'em had 55, the other A2. Perhaps only one of them has one of these two hands and the other's semi-bluffing his spade draw. It's hard to deny BOTH of them though, isn't it? The pot's not large enough to play on, chief, so it's not as tough a decision as you think. You'll have plenty of sets to play on other days.

beachbum

03-21-2005, 11:47 PM

I don't put it past BB to have A/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif on this turn. Some crazies will wait until the turn to wake up with AT and no flush draw too. It sucks to have no reads.

Nick C

03-21-2005, 11:59 PM

I don't think UTG+1's turn raise has to indicate he has a hand as strong as a set or straight.

I do agree that BB's hand is a major concern. And UTG+1's is as well, in part because that hand could cut into Hero's outs even if Hero has UTG+1 beat. (The actual set of 3's that UTG+1 had, for instance, while in third place, did reduce Hero's outs to 7. And a trash suited hand like T5s would be even more damaging to Hero's chances, if he's drawing.)

But there is some chance Hero is ahead, which is a really important consideration, even if Hero's chances of being ahead weren't all that good. And if he's Hero is behind and is up against two straights or a straight and, say, 66 or A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif or an AT type hand UTG+1 waited until the turn to raise with, then Hero would want to continue.

bernie

03-22-2005, 02:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
in that if you were to play every hand you had a set with super agressively from now till forever, it would be +ev. Are you telling me the set loses more than half the times in all these instances

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the instances. In this case, on this type of board, yes, you will likely lose more than 1/2 the time when the action dictates that you have to hit your hand on the river to win. 2 guys just woke up on the turn and raised. One check-3 betting. You're really going to just ignore that and cap? Even if your read is better just because...

When you have near bottom set on a board like this, don't you even consider just what the other guys might be jamming the turn with? Or do you just blindly throw chips in without factoring that in. That is what your implying by saying one should play this way.

Think a little bit before throwing chips in. Don't just think in a blanket form for all situations and say, 'I have a set, so no matter what, I'm jamming the hell out of the turn.'

But no, you likely won't lose much, if any, in always jamming the turn with a set every time. However, you sure are far from maximizing profit when you do it all the time, every time. You close the gap a little more between winning player and losing player doing it, 'generally'.

b

bernie

03-22-2005, 02:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How many bets would you call on a river blank? I'm asking because sometimes I think I pay off too often when I get trapped in a big pot versus two players who love their hands

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question.

Here's one thing about paying off against unknowns. It doesn't cost much in the longrun. Why? Because they aren't unknowns for long. The situation doesn't come up all that often where it's really going to affect your profit. Shortterm, it will, but it's negligible longrun. However, shortterm will affect your psyche much quicker.

It starts costing you lots of chips when you do have a read and ignore the obvious based on your read. (ie...callingstations) A case can be made both ways, and has in previous threads on calling multiple bets against unknowns.

One thing is, these guys have played in a rather predictable manner which can allow you to lay this down on the river unimproved. However, if you're really not sure, call it.

One factor that many don't consider is the effect on your play should you fold a winner in this spot. It could put one on heavy tilt where they blow off a few chips regaining their composure. If you've never done this before, it is like a bolt of electricity shooting through you. A kick in the gut. Now you're questioning your reads and everything else until you recover. The effect is different for different players, obviously. You can really see this in live cardrooms when it happens to some players.

I use a simplified rule. If I can fold and be shown I folded a winner, and it won't really bother me, I can fold. This gets much more accurate the more you get lines on your opponents play. On this hand, I could probably lay it down for 2 cold on the river. Though I don't like doing it against 'real' unknowns.

Not sure if this answers your question, but it might give you some ideas to think about.

b

bernie

03-22-2005, 02:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if one of your opponents is indeed bluffing, the other probably isnt. You have to make a decision as to whether your up against a couple of two pairs or if you're behind a straight or higher set.

Treat the turn bet as an information/value bet. Since at least one of your opponents probably has you beat, you can now safely fold out of this smallish pot once it's re-raised back to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Regarding info: You gain no info by capping the turn. More is gained if the guy behind you caps. It also can help make the river play easier.

b

bernie

03-22-2005, 03:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Treat the turn bet as an information/value bet. Since at least one of your opponents probably has you beat, you can now safely fold out of this smallish pot once it's re-raised back to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I think folding the turn would be bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ii thought this line was about folding the river after the turn. Folding the turn would be horrible.

b

bernie

03-22-2005, 03:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My first thought was he probably hit his set of 5s on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Take all possible hands into account when someone makes a very strong move on the turn. 3 betting is a very strong move. Especially check 3 betting. You don't see too many opponents use this with lesser hands.

Put yourself in their shoes and see what they're seeing of their opponents. One guy is still betting, UTG just woke up and raised which usually indicates at least a turned 2 pair, usually a flopped set. The BB isn't in position to do a free showdown raise, he has to have something good to blast with in this spot. Notice he's also in a spot where he's fully expecting to get called.

b