river fold, ok?

[arkady]

Villain has tight stats.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.20 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 11.20 BB

[mperich]

Edit: Didnt see ur read. Against unknown I call, against this guy well....11-1, I dunno I still probably call, but thats cuz I call too much and a fold is probably correct.

-Mike

[DrGutshot]

this all depends on how many hands/how reliable my read is. I think I'd call and cry like a girl just because often I see "tight" players go crazy with random hands...maybe you beat 99 or TT...

If it's a semi-reliable read though, I think this fold is correct.

In other words, I have no idea wtf I'm trying to say.

-DrG

[J.R.]

"tight stats" does not equal never bluff and is not a substitute for a postflop read, so I think its a call unless you feel real secure (which impliedly you don't by asking), e.g. somebody with a pfr of like 5 and lots of hands and super small postflop agg numbers &lt;.05 without being real loose preflop.

You're gettting 11-1! and image is not an inconsequential factor, although even absent image considerations it would be a call.

unkown = "about to become known" in any marginally close spot.

IMO you have to either check-raise or 3-bet these flops, and given he capped and is farily tight, me like check-raise (unless he is an uber rock and won't raise or bet without a pair)

[arkady]

how do you proceed after he 3-bets the flop?

[DrGutshot]

I think calldown wholeway with almost any turn and river (except a jack of course)

-DrG

[chio]

despite your opp being tight, i think you have to call here for 1 bet HU getting over 11-1. the K is a bad card for you, but doesn't suddenly eliminate TT 99 AQs from his range of hands

[sthief09]

tight doesn't really matter much, but it assumes he's somewhat sane. when the K slides off, I don't see a sane player not having you beat. TT or 99 maybe, but does he cap and value bet the river with those hands? I doubt it

you have no other read on this guy other than him being tight?

[arkady]

I think sane is a good word to use. I didnt like 'tight' as an adjective, sane is better.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
I think sane is a good word to use. I didnt like 'tight' as an adjective, sane is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

For me, the K on the river doesnt change much. If hes sane, hes giving you alot of action with just AK. Im calling the river, and I fully expect to win 1-11...if it isnt even that close, then calling the turn has to be wrong.

[Michael Davis]

No not okay. A full game maybe. 6-max no. He has 99 or TT or 77 or AQ here enough.

-Michael

[arkady]

So uhm given what I told you, do you call this down....like....100% of the time?

[sthief09]

most people would play AK that way, checking behind on the river unimproved. I think that K changes things a lot

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
most people would play AK that way, checking behind on the river unimproved. I think that K changes things a lot

[/ QUOTE ]

not really, the issue is what other hands would this villian play the same way, *most notably* those hero is ahead. there need not be many at 11-1. think about those.

[Michael Davis]

Yes. I don't fold flopped overpairs no matter what comes on the turn and the river, except sometimes in obvious cases an ace. Obviously that is too rigid to be right, but it's damn close.

-Michael

[ddubois]

I wasn't sure I beleived this, so I whipped out PokerStove:

Board: 5s 8s 8c 6h Kd
Hand 1: 54.7619 % [ 00.54 00.01 ] { JsJd }
Hand 2: 45.2381 % [ 00.44 00.01 ] { AA-77, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }

This really surprised me, so I tighened his range up:
Hand 1: 44.1176 % [ 00.43 00.01 ] { JsJd }
Hand 2: 55.8824 % [ 00.55 00.01 ] { AA-77, AKs-AQs, AKo }

And then again:
Hand 1: 37.5000 % [ 00.36 00.01 ] { JsJd }
Hand 2: 62.5000 % [ 00.61 00.01 ] { AA-99, AKs-AQs, AKo }

Still seems too high, but I can't argue with the numbers. You were so passive post-flop, it's hard to define his hand such that we can accurately Bayesian discount the probability of him holding a hand you beat. If I was him, I'd be betting my TT the whole way (but I don't think I'd have the cahojnes to bluff the river with AQs).

[ToneLoc]

Looks like an easy call to me, you are getting huge odds.

[krishanleong]

deleted

Krishan

[sublime]

hey ark-

i am in the call camp, but only because you asked if this was a good fold. meaning if you knew he had you beat than it doesnt matter what any of us say, you made the right play and you wouldnt be asking. since you felt compelled to ask, then its best to call imo.

[krishanleong]

Does anyone think cring the flop better defines villians hand? I think this hand was played a bit passively which led to a tough decision on the river.

Krishan

[Apocalypse]

I don't like checkraising this flop at all, since it sets you up for many possible weird signals from villain on either flop or river you'd be inclined to call down.

In order to get a clear picture of the range of holdings your opponent could be having here, 3-betting the flop seems mandatory, if he caps or calls it and continues aggression on turn (after YOU bet out) i think against a 'sane' opponent, a fold is in order on the turn. That would cost you 1sb extra for a safe good fold as oppossed to a bad fold on the river with the line you took

(edit) o and ps the rivered king really doesn't swing a call into a fold with the odds you're getting. really really not

[J.R.]

the point of check-raising or 3-betting is for value, not to try to get a read on your oppoenent's hand so that you can "appropriately" lay down. here, if this guy is tighter than most you would likely prefer 2-3 bets to go in on the flop rather than 3-4. The more confident I am that his cap is not QQ, KK or AA, the more inclined I am to look to bet and 3-bet.

[djoyce003]

Never fold this. If he had trips he would raise the turn not the flop, you folded to a guy with a 5.

[Apocalypse]

[ QUOTE ]
the point of check-raising or 3-betting is for value

[/ QUOTE ]

of course, i held this to be self-evident but i can see how my post sends a mixed signal about this

[ QUOTE ]
, not to try to get a read on your oppoenent's hand so that you can "appropriately" lay down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welll...i really like to include this beneficial bonus when it comes to making a choice between leading out and c'rsing. And in this case it certainly swings my vote to leading/3-betting the flop. Jacks can be a pretty hard hand to play on a non-scary board imo, where you are easily paying off bigger hands with the preflop action and opponent as presented here. Figuring out if this is the case saves you a bet here and there i guess, although i would never call it a big mistake or anything if one decides to call it down every time. I think the ground im trying to cover here, gives you opportunity to save some bets in your sessions , but brings you bigger danger of losing bets as well. It's hard for me to say to wich group i belong in that matter /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[J.R.]

Don't get caught up in trying to save bets and make good folds in 6-max. My check-raise preference on the flop is significantly influenced by my desire to show this hand down the great majority of the time, and I don't think it behooves you to look to get away from overpairs by betting and raising the flop and trusting your opponent's aggression to be a reliable indicator of where you are in the hand. I think you should look to get in a ideal number of bets in light of a preseumed showdwon. I prefer my chances when 2-3 bets go in on the flop rather than when 3-4 bets go in, but that does not mean I will be comfortable laying down when 4 bets are put in.

You have an overpair in a headsup pot. Sure there may be more laggier opponents who you might rather be against in this spot, but against a relatively unkown opponent, even one whose preflop stats appear tight or sane (over who knows how many hands?) you have to look to showdown your hand for value, and this is withstanding any consequential benefits to your image and the read you can gather from your opponent (but this read isn't that reliable in regards to making folds in the future in similar sized pots because with 11 bets in the pot, you can get shown a bigger pair a whole lot and still be making the correct call).

Bottom line, looking to make folds, especially with big hands like overpairs, based upon flop "representation" is an extremely exploitable and unprofitable strategy.

[Apocalypse]

and as we progress, i must say im starting more and more to lean towards your view when it comes to my personal situation as a pokerplayer(already got thinking during my previous reply). Trying to see 'good folds' in these kind of situations i think may be too dangerous for me to handle. Mmmmmm....boggles the mind, tx /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[arkady]

hey mike -

It's not so much what I felt about that hand, but that I think I have encountered this situation quite a few times. I would go to SD and be shown either a rivered AK or QQ+. In response to that I have started folding, but in the midst of this downswing decided to take a closer look to some of these shady folds. It's nice to see sthief in my camp, but everybody else says call. Sometimes GameTime *does* throw you off by making you pigeon hole some players prematurely.

Before I fold next time, I will ask myself - how will I feel after? That will be the key /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ddubois]

If I'm in one of my laggier moods, I might even CR the turn. How bad of a play would that be?

[Rudis]

Fully agree!
As someone pointed out earlier as well, taking it to three bets flop is very often for value in more than one way. If you are ahead it earns you more. If you are behind it will be easier to get a feel for villains hand and to make the correct play on following streets...

[jayrutz2]

How does the hand play out differently if you 3 bet the flop??, wouldn't it then be very easy to fold to a raise on the turn??, or be ahead and take initiative away? I guess capped pre-flop means no 8 or 6, unless a pair and you are drawing dead. AQ, 99, 10-10 would probably slow down unimproved on the turn, but esp if you 3 bet flop..I say 3-bet, bet fold on turn....