Doofus Roulette Player Thinks He Can Get 3% Advantage

[grandgnu]

So this douchebag who attends my home games (real LAG player) claims he can get a 3% advantage playing. He also claims the last 17 trips he's gone down, he's made money 14 of them. I told him to get back to me in 10 years and let me know how it's going.

His claim was something about there being 38 total betting spots, so all he has to do is bet 10 numbers and 1 in 4 times if he hits one number he'll make a profit.

Let's see, say we bet $1 per number each time:

Total invested: $40
Total Won: $35

This is provided that he hits 1 in 4 times. So his net loss is $5. I thought there were 35 numbers and then 0 and double zero, so that would be 37 total spots, or am I missing something? I don't play roulette, for obvious reasons.

Any way I can explain his incorrect math any easier to him, or should I just install a roulette wheel at my house and let this chump pay me off? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[gaming_mouse]

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or should I just install a roulette wheel at my house and let this chump pay me off? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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actually, why not? I think you buy small ones for $200 or less. ask him if he'd agree.

[Gin 'n Tonic]

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...should I just install a roulette wheel at my house and let this chump pay me off?

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I tried this once many years ago with a Craps layout – invited a few friends to join in after the Poker game with me playing the house.

Went fine for the first couple of hours, winning about $100 or so, then one of them got on a monster roll and cleaned me out to the tune of over $1000 – over 2 weeks’ wages at the time. Had the embarrassment of having to close the table without even finishing the hand.

Only do it if you’ve got a very big bankroll, and are willing to lose it.

[mostsmooth]

theres 36 numbers plus 0 and 00 (and im pretty sure some places dont have both 0 and 00 on the wheel, just one of them)

[grandgnu]

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theres 36 numbers plus 0 and 00 (and im pretty sure some places dont have both 0 and 00 on the wheel, just one of them)

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At Foxwoods (where he's playing) they have the 0 and 00, and I believe the payout is 35-1 if your number hits.

Based on that, there's no way he could hope to pull down a 3% edge over the house. He's so stupidly annoying. Bet, raise, raise, bet, nothing. I love breaking him when we play poker.

[Siegmund]

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Any way I can explain his incorrect math any easier to him, or should I just install a roulette wheel at my house and let this chump pay me off? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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You're right that his EV is still -5.26% of every dollar he puts down. But the variance is huge.

If he played one number at a time against you, you'd have EV +.0526 and SD 5.84 per spin.

Playing ten numbers at a time, you have EV+.5263 and SD 16.06. He has helpfully improved your EV/SD ratio by a factor of sqrt(10) but it is still huge.

Compare one spin of the wheel to one hour of poker. 16 BB/H is a little high for poker variance, and 0.5 BB/H is a lot smaller of a win rate than a lot of us like to see.

If you want 300 big bets to play poker, you need to be bringing at least $3000 to the roulette table to have the same risk of ruin. And if you want a 95% chance of showing a profit, your friend needs to commit to at least 2500 spins of the wheel.

If you can get in one spin a minute you can make $30 an hour spinning for him in the long run, and that may well be better than your poker winrate is... but in the short term, ANYTHING can happen.

[grandgnu]

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Any way I can explain his incorrect math any easier to him, or should I just install a roulette wheel at my house and let this chump pay me off? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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You're right that his EV is still -5.26% of every dollar he puts down. But the variance is huge.

If he played one number at a time against you, you'd have EV +.0526 and SD 5.84 per spin.

Playing ten numbers at a time, you have EV+.5263 and SD 16.06. He has helpfully improved your EV/SD ratio by a factor of sqrt(10) but it is still huge.

Compare one spin of the wheel to one hour of poker. 16 BB/H is a little high for poker variance, and 0.5 BB/H is a lot smaller of a win rate than a lot of us like to see.

If you want 300 big bets to play poker, you need to be bringing at least $3000 to the roulette table to have the same risk of ruin. And if you want a 95% chance of showing a profit, your friend needs to commit to at least 2500 spins of the wheel.

If you can get in one spin a minute you can make $30 an hour spinning for him in the long run, and that may well be better than your poker winrate is... but in the short term, ANYTHING can happen.

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Nice math. I don't have any intention of putting in a roulette wheel, don't need that additional attention drawn to my home game. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

But this sounds similar to where a casino brings in a whale and gets the whale to commit to play for something like 72 hours. At the start, the whale is crushing the house, but in the end, the casinos mathmatics guy was correct, and the whale loses his shirt.