10-20 Taj Hand: Does Value bet have Neg. Expectation?

[Jeffage]

Playing in a good 10-20 game at the Taj Mahal. I have AQ in EP and raise it. Next guy, a tight player who isn't out of line often and likes to raise on the turn/river coldcalls. 3 others coldcall. The blinds fold. 4 see the flop for $20 each. Flop comes good for me...Q-3-3 rainbow. I bet. Tighty calls, one other caller. Turn is another 3. Board is Q-3-3-3. I bet my full house, tighty calls, other guy folds. River is a 7. I bet out instinctively. Tighty raises. Now, my question is this. This seems to be an automatic bet. But against a player who is as I described, I believe the bet may have negative expectation. I chop with a queen which is the least this player could have taking all this heat. He could have AA or KK and be waiting to raise. I have seen him coldcall with these hands bf saying he didn't want to reraise and "give away" his holding. Anyone think about check-calling the river against this opponent? Results to follow.

Jeff

If what you say is true:
"I chop with a queen which is the least this player could have taking all this heat."
then clearly the river bet is -EV.
However, it is unlikely that this is the case. You simply have to factor in the chances of AA/KK/QQ (3????) vs. smaller pocket. I'd always lean toward betting here, but if he was a super super tightass, who won't call with worse than a queen, it's check call time. That situation would be incredibly rare I think.

[Gabe]

If he's tight, he will not have a 3. However, if he really is tight the Q's he may have are limited. But then again, what hands would he coldcall with?

[budman]

I would never check call the river after tighty shows no strength through the early rounds.

If he is tight, I can't think of any hand he would have cold called with that contained a 3. If he has AA, KK or QQ, then he missed a raise on the turn.

Sounds like you chopped (I hope).

[Mason Malmuth]

If you check, and he would bet a hand like two tens for value then you should check. That's because this is the type of hand that you are hoping he has when you bet and he calls, but now you don't lose that bet when you check, but you stop him from raising you if he has a big hand.

On the other hand, if he would call you down with AK and perhaps pay off with it, then you should bet. This should be the case even if you do occasionally run into aces or kings.

MM

[afish]

I don't know many 10-20 players in AC who would bet a weaker hand than yours if you check. I know a lot who would call you down with any pair hoping that you have AK. I think a bet here has positive value. With the raise, you either chopped, or you lost to AA, KK or 77. Obviously, you've got to call the raise.

[Jeffage]

My opponent showed AA and won the hand. I think the bet was right, but just wanted to hear what the forum had to say. Something like 10-10 would call, but check behind on the end. It was just this opponent's tendency that made me think check-call. BTW, my opponent didnt make a mistake by not raising the turn...IMO (he did make a mistake in his preflop play). A raise would get me off AK and he wanted me to continue betting nothing if thats what i was doing. Freecards weren't a worry for him really. How do you think tighty played?

Jeff