PBob Goes Fishing

[PokerBob]

The table is loose.

How awful is the flop call? Think carefully.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $3. MP2 posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 (poster) raises</font>, MP2 (poster) calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls........

[mantasm]

You want at least 3-4 outs to make the call, and all you have is the backdoor flush and weak backdoor straight. Maybe 2 outs.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
How awful is the flop call? Think carefully.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey, PokerBob, you've got me confused. The flop looks like an easy fold to me.

I probably would have folded preflop, actually.

[smartalecc5]

ya, i dont get anything your trying to accomplish on this hand.

[Shillx]

Let's just say that you are drawing to running hearts in this hand. Best case is that you pay 1 bet per street pre-river and then collect 2 bets from everyone on the river. Assume that you will make the flush 4% of the time (I like to keep things simple):

EV = -24*.5 BB - 4*1 BB + 19.5 BB = + 3.5 BB / 25 hands = + .14 BB/Hand

So in a perfect world you can call on this flop. You can also win with a running 45 or a running 77 or something as well to boost your odds. The problem is that everything won't always work out perfectly. Someone might raise behind you on the flop for example (this is devistating). Once the turn rolls around you really don't care what the action is, but if you have to pay 2 SB to see 4th, you will not turn a profit with this hand. And then you have to consider that you might not get paid as well as you would like on the river. You also have to consider that people folding out on the flop or turn hurts your cause. If you were closing the action on the flop (where everyone called) you could make this call. But with two people left to act behind you it is a gamble that I wouldn't want to take when I can pick a better spot to try and outplay my opponents.

Brad

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's just say that you are drawing to running hearts in this hand. Best case is that you pay 1 bet per street pre-river and then collect 2 bets from everyone on the river. Assume that you will make the flush 4% of the time (I like to keep things simple):

EV = -24*.5 BB - 4*1 BB + 19.5 BB = + 3.5 BB / 25 hands = + .14 BB/Hand

So in a perfect world you can call on this flop. You can also win with a running 45 or a running 77 or something as well to boost your odds. The problem is that everything won't always work out perfectly. Someone might raise behind you on the flop for example (this is devistating). Once the turn rolls around you really don't care what the action is, but if you have to pay 2 SB to see 4th, you will not turn a profit with this hand. And then you have to consider that you might not get paid as well as you would like on the river. You also have to consider that people folding out on the flop or turn hurts your cause. If you were closing the action on the flop (where everyone called) you could make this call. But with two people left to act behind you it is a gamble that I wouldn't want to take when I can pick a better spot to try and outplay my opponents.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the call is good, but I don't think it is awful either. I'm not proud of it. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[kurosh]

Fold PF. Only call the flop if you're 90% sure it won't be raised behind you.