bubble leak?

[Dominic]

background: UB $50s and $100s - mostly 6-handed SNGs.
(At the bottom are my stats from the $50s for 2005, if it helps)

I think I've got a leak when we get down to 3-handed (on UB, only 2 get paid in the 6-handed SNGs). And I'm only talking about hands where I'm NOT desperately short stacked.

I find myself pushing pretty hard with hands that have flopped great draws, for example:

Blinds are 75-150

I've got 1800
Villain has 5,000
other guy's got 1400

I've got 6d9d in the SB. Short-stack folds, I raise to 450 (this particular player had been fairly passive and willing to fold his BB if I raised). This time, Villain calls.

Flop: 7d 8s 4d Pot has 1000

I flop both a straight and flush draws. I check. Villain bets 300. With only 1350 left, I push. Villain calls. Turns over T8. No help comes, I'm out.

This is just one example. Whether I'm the chip leader or hanging in there without being desperately short-stacked, should I be pulling back a bit with draws? Am I putting too much stock in them and should I be more apt to wait for TP hands or at least only see a turn cheaply with a draw?

Any help would be greatly appreciated!

Poker summary SNG2

ROI 18.6%

ITM 41.1%

Total Tourneys 438

Total entries $24,090.00
Total prizes $28,560.00
SNG Profit $4,470.00

$/Tourney $10.21
# hrs 85.00
$/hr $52.59
Avg Finish 3.03
Bubble % +/- 23.7%

SD/tourney $86.85
Total SD $1,817.62
Winning Confidence 99.30%

65%, in 100 tourneys,
profit of $152.06 to $1,889.04

95%, in 100 tourneys,
profit of -$716.43 to $2,757.53

90.00% confidence in $/tourney
between $3.38 & $17.03

53.03% conf. in $/tourney +/-
$3.00 or, ROI +/- 5.5%

[TheUsher]

Why not just push instead of check/raising? Since your stack is barely above the pot size, it's not like villain will get away from most any bet that he makes anyways.

[Rolen]

Simple answer is just to wait and see on those draws. Call his 300. If you hit, he's not going to fold for the rest of your chips and if not, you're still breathing. I used to play all sorts of draws very aggressively but i've really cut back on them, simply because the competition I play is more than willing to pay me off if I hit.

[Dominic]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just push instead of check/raising? Since your stack is barely above the pot size, it's not like villain will get away from most any bet that he makes anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possibly the way to play it....but I don't see him folding top pair to my all-in, do you? My move looks exactly like I've got 2 big cards preflop (I raised) and I'm betting he didn't hit on a garbage flop.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Simple answer is just to wait and see on those draws. Call his 300. If you hit, he's not going to fold for the rest of your chips and if not, you're still breathing. I used to play all sorts of draws very aggressively but i've really cut back on them, simply because the competition I play is more than willing to pay me off if I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

18 outs times 2 (flush draw + openended-2 diamonds + 3 9's if he has top pair with an eight) and you're saying to check/call? That right there smells of weak/tight to me. It's not like the pot size and the bets are only 1/10 of your stack or something. Pot size is 2/3 of your stack, check/calling is 1/4 of your remaining stack. You miss the turn and you'd check/fold it leaving you with 1050 chips? You're almost guaranteed on playing for 2nd in that spot if not bubbling 3rd first.

Edit: Assume this:

This is probably what he had:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=837550
pokenum -h 6d 9d - tc 8c -- 7d 8s 4d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 7d 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 6d 579 58.48 411 41.52 0 0.00 0.585
Tc 8c 411 41.52 579 58.48 0 0.00 0.415

He has your Ad:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=837545
pokenum -h 6d 9d - ad 8c -- 7d 8s 4d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 7d 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 6d 568 57.37 422 42.63 0 0.00 0.574
8c Ad 422 42.63 568 57.37 0 0.00 0.426

Worst case if he had top pair with your flush draw:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=837549
pokenum -h 6d 9d - ad 8d -- 7d 8s 4d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8s 7d 4d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 6d 286 28.89 704 71.11 0 0.00 0.289
Ad 8d 704 71.11 286 28.89 0 0.00 0.711

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not just push instead of check/raising? Since your stack is barely above the pot size, it's not like villain will get away from most any bet that he makes anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possibly the way to play it....but I don't see him folding top pair to my all-in, do you? My move looks exactly like I've got 2 big cards preflop (I raised) and I'm betting he didn't hit on a garbage flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just saying if you were going to check/raise, pushing would be my first option. What if he made a 3/4 to pot size bet with overs or Ax or something and you check/raised all-in. How would you feel after if he pairs up when you know he wouldn't be able to bluff you if you pushed in the first place.

Remember, shorthanded, it's not very often people flop top pair. You might even get some people to fold bottom pair or something (which beats you currently on the flop) in that situation if you pushed first.

[Dominic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Simple answer is just to wait and see on those draws. Call his 300. If you hit, he's not going to fold for the rest of your chips and if not, you're still breathing. I used to play all sorts of draws very aggressively but i've really cut back on them, simply because the competition I play is more than willing to pay me off if I hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

18 outs times 2 (flush draw + openended-2 diamonds + 3 9's if he has top pair with an eight) and you're saying to check/call? That right there smells of weak/tight to me. It's not like the pot size and the bets are only 1/10 of your stack or something. Pot size is 2/3 of your stack, check/calling is 1/4 of your remaining stack. You miss the turn and you'd check/fold it leaving you with 1050 chips? You're almost guaranteed on playing for 2nd in that spot if not bubbling 3rd first.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. That's why I'm pushing on his bet!

[Rolen]

Call the 300. First of all, by checkraising you've given overcards the correct odds to call. Not a terrible thing but you'd rather take the pot without a fight, right? If you call the 300 then move-in no matter what the turn is, you take away a good portion of hands he is likely to call you with.

[Iconoclastic]

Why not Push preflop?

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not Push preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is almost like hara kiri with your stack size.

[Nottom]

I don't think misplaying straight-flush draws 3-handed is a significant leak for anybody.

[Dominic]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think misplaying straight-flush draws 3-handed is a significant leak for anybody.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't have a straight flush draw - but I did have an OE straight draw AND a flush draw.

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think misplaying straight-flush draws 3-handed is a significant leak for anybody.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably true and I respect where this is coming from since you seem to be tearing up the 55's last I saw but I for one would play this more aggressively on the flop. Now avoid my tables nottom. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think misplaying straight-flush draws 3-handed is a significant leak for anybody.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably true and I respect where this is coming from since you seem to be tearing up the 55's last I saw but I for one would play this more aggressively on the flop. Now avoid my tables nottom. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't worry about avoiding me, my ROI would make most posters laugh.

My point really has more to do with the fact that the situation is so rare and the EV so close that it doesn't really matter what you do as long as its not totally stupid (like check-folding to a min bet).