Play along with me. AJo in a ginormous pot.

[Entity]

SB is loose-aggressive. The rest of the table is donktastic and likes to call lots of bets. I know this is shorthanded, but the hand played out like a normal full ring game.

I think preflop is standard so let's take the action up at the flop.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (18 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero...

[Shillx]

<font color="white">Raise for value. Getting the donks to put money into the pot is awesome and the flop is the best place to get her done.</font> /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Brad

I misread the action in this hand. I thought it was just 4 to the flop. Whoops. Now I need to go into the tank...

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
best place to get her done

[/ QUOTE ]

Sexist /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[LoaferGee12]

I'm raising this flop. Get your value bets in while the loose players will still call.

[Firefly]

In white <font color="white">I'm torn between raising now and raising a safe turn card ie: not another broadway card. But i'd like to get information on the flop...grr. I think calling and raising a non-broadway card is the best play. Otherwise proceed if you are given outs to draw to the FH. </font>

[milesdyson]

Raise for value. You can't protect now, you won't be able to protect on the turn when SB bets again. If SB 3-bets, calling or capping becomes an interesting decision.

[DoctorDrew]

I love these becasue I am still torn between raising b/c the pot is so large who cares (probably what I would do).

And, waiting until the turn to raise to get more BBs rather than SBs in the hand if everyone will still call.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise for value. You can't protect now, you won't be able to protect on the turn when SB bets again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll be able to offer 8:1 if I raise the turn. It should be noted that dry aces will call flop or turn raises in this game, and I'm pretty sure gutshots will too. So will hands that are drawing dead, like J2 and such. These guys are BAD.

Rob

[einbert]

Raise the flop and hopefully SB will 3-bet. If so, cap that [censored] in a heartbeat.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise for value. You can't protect now, you won't be able to protect on the turn when SB bets again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll be able to offer 8:1 if I raise the turn. It should be noted that dry aces will call flop or turn raises in this game, and I'm pretty sure gutshots will too. So will hands that are drawing dead, like J2 and such. These guys are BAD.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
This is true, however I'm thinking that my flop raise will likely be 3-bet by SB. Since they're terrible, I want to take the line which will end up getting many many bets out of them.

If SB 3-bets, I'm probably calling and raising the turn.

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise for value. You can't protect now, you won't be able to protect on the turn when SB bets again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll be able to offer 8:1 if I raise the turn. It should be noted that dry aces will call flop or turn raises in this game, and I'm pretty sure gutshots will too. So will hands that are drawing dead, like J2 and such. These guys are BAD.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
All the more reason to raise, with all the dead money there, plus the ability to fill up.

[SCfuji]

welcome back to party.

im raising this flop entity. i want to give the LAG the distinct honor and option of capping the flop and leading into me on the river. since he is a LAG i see a high possibility of getting a ton more money into this pot.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise for value. You can't protect now, you won't be able to protect on the turn when SB bets again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll be able to offer 8:1 if I raise the turn. It should be noted that dry aces will call flop or turn raises in this game, and I'm pretty sure gutshots will too. So will hands that are drawing dead, like J2 and such. These guys are BAD.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
This is true, however I'm thinking that my flop raise will likely be 3-bet by SB. Since they're terrible, I want to take the line which will end up getting many many bets out of them.

If SB 3-bets, I'm probably calling and raising the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is always where I've struggled. If I'm torn between making it correct for them to call with gutshots (but padding a pot which is already huge), and making it incorrect for them to call with hands like those. Since I'm only concerned about gutshots in this scenario, it's an interesting question, I think -- especially since I'm not closing the action.

ROb

[Shillx]

Okay let's throw out some numbers here (all rough of course)...

Hero's equity right now: ~60%
On 4th should the 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif fall: ~70%
Suited nine: ~50%
A king: ~30%
A queen: ~25%
A Jack or Ace: ~99%
A Ten: ~50%

A blank (a 6 down to a 2) will fall 34% of the time. We will have an assumed 70% equity in this spot.

A non-blank (T down to a 7) will fall 32% of the time. We have about 50% equity in this spot.

We will just call if an king or queen hits (30% equity). The question is...will we bet these hands if we raise the flop and get called. For the sake of argument I will say that we will (this is highly questionable however).

EV wait: 3 BB*.6 + 12 BB(.7*.34 + .5*.32 + .99*.09) + 6 BB*.17*.3 - .5 BB - 2 BB*.83 - 1 BB*.17 = ~ + 5.6 BB

EV raise flop: 6 BB*.6 + 6 BB ( .7*.34 + .5*.32 + .99*.09 + .3*.17) - 2 BB = ~ + 4.8 BB

So yeah I think waiting is good here. Plz comment if you think this is wrong or if you have any questions/concerns.

Brad

[shadow29]

Could I have your babies, Shill?

[SCfuji]

do you want your kids to be deformed?

[LoaferGee12]

Is this assuming the SB bets out the turn and everyone calls again? If it is, I really don't like this.

[milesdyson]

Shill -

I think the calculation becomes way too complicated but would be more accurate if we take into account how often the loose-aggressive SB will 3-bet us on the flop and lead the turn.

Regardless, I think when we keep putting our own estimated %s of events occurring, the results become convoluted. Perhaps your calculation says that it doesn't really matter what we do in this hand? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[hicherbie]

i like waiting to pop the turn...id try my best to isolate LAGs in a big pot.

[btspider]

i don't want to oversimplify things, but most of the time SB does not have us beat, he has one of the gutshot cards and isn't folding.. so that may halve our concerns. if SB doesn't have AK/AQ or a set.. he may have something too weak to lead the turn (KK/QQ/99, etc).

i don't think one line is particular favorable over another. if the flop were two tone and we did not have the Ace of backdoor flushes, i'd be more concerned about our equity. i'd probably just raise the flop at game speed.

[joeski19]

[ QUOTE ]

i don't think one line is particular favorable over another. if the flop were two tone and we did not have the Ace of backdoor flushes, i'd be more concerned about our equity. i'd probably just raise the flop at game speed.

[/ QUOTE ]