Lay down top and bottom pair?

[IgorSmiles]

***** Hand History for Game 1762935853 *****
NL Hold'em Trny:10543749 Level:7 Blinds (100/200) -

Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: IgorNSmiles ( $5770 )
Seat 5: MAMMIHAT ( $2880 )
Seat 9: airhole27 ( $11000 )
Seat 10: Bartalbe ( $8740 )
Seat 8: sportyD ( $4991 )
Seat 3: asmodean007 ( $1505 )
Seat 7: beelzeclerk ( $9550 )
Seat 6: Trltrl ( $3837 )
Trny:10543749 Level:7
Blinds (100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to IgorNSmiles [ 9h 6c ]
asmodean007 folds.
MAMMIHAT folds.
Trltrl calls [200].
beelzeclerk calls [200].
sportyD calls [200].
airhole27 folds.
Bartalbe folds.
IgorNSmiles checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, 7h, 9c ]
IgorNSmiles bets [600].
Trltrl is all-In [3637]
beelzeclerk folds.
sportyD folds.


Call? Or fold?

[sloth469]

Well if he hit the straight or a set would he push or we he try and milk you a bit? I think you are up against an overpair or top pair storng kicker here. He may even have over cards with the straight or flush draw. It just comes down to wether you think the risk is worth the reward. I think I go here.

-sloth

[MLG]

[ QUOTE ]
It just comes down to wether you think the risk is worth the reward.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a lazy statement. Prove whether the risk is or isnt worth the reward.

[TheTimeIsUp]

I don't think he would push this hard with anything that beats you.

I'm all in!!!

[schwza]

i call and expect to get shown an 8.

[MeanGreenTT]

Could he've limped with 58 or 8T?...I guess that is read dependent, but with his stack, it's not something I'd play.

Could he limp with 6s, 7s or 9s? 6s and 9s are unlikely as you hold and pair one of each so that leaves the 7s. Could he've hit the Set and be betting to protect against the Flush?

Would he limp with any other pair and thinks his hand is currently the best since there's no way the board you hit you significantly? Maybe limped with A8 for an open-ended draw?

If you call, it's another T3000, about 2/3s of your stack, for a pot of about T5100.

Might be a tough laydown, but I think you have enough chips to pick a better spot. Then again, he could just be making a play at you thinking there's no way the Flop helped you and there was no pre-flop raise....who knows, maybe I'm just being weak tight /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It just comes down to wether you think the risk is worth the reward.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a lazy statement. Prove whether the risk is or isnt worth the reward.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, we are looking at a possible flush draw with overs, a top pair/overpair looking to knock out the draws, or an 8X getting frisky.

Now we have 5100 in the pot and it costs 3000 to call. that is 1.7:1. I don't believe that we are looking at a hand better than two pair, but if we are, you still have a 16% chance to fill up. A flush draw with overs has 14 outs, 17 if one of the overs is a ten. So ATh IS winning right now, but not by much. Top pair/good kicker is less likely as two of the 4 nines are accounted for. An over pair isn't very likely given the PF action, but TT or JJ is a deffinate possibility. My best read of this hand in a vaccuum is a flush draw no overs. Suited faces would most likely raise PF at this point in the tourney. Getting 1.7:1 with a range of likely hands giving you a coin flip at one end (A4s) and 9:1 (A9) on the other, I say that this is a pretty easy call, esp. considering that you will have chips remaining if he hits. Let's hope that it is an 8 getting frisky or A9 trying to take it down quick.

CSC

[sloth469]

Fair enough it was lazy. You will be calling 3037 to win 5137. So you will be getting about 1.7 to 1 on the call. Now to figure out range of hands and assign likelyhoods of each.

Flopped set or straight are unlikely but possible I'll estimate the probability to be approximately 20%. You are behind this range, but have 4 full house outs v the straight and maybe 2 against a set.

Over pair, straight or flush draw I'll put about 70%. You are ahead of this range, but depending on his draw he could have quite a few outs and something like AT hearts is statistically close to even (not 100% on this don't have poker stove on this PC).

About 10% of the time it is a stone cold bluff (DH says 15% but with such a draw heavy board I'm more willing to give player semi-bluff credit).

Now to the laziness in my first post. The situation, we know very little about buy-in of tourney, # of players, relation to bubble, read on opponant, etc. While I'm ahead of the range I'm putting him on is it worth 3037 more chips to you in this situation?

I'm inclined to go here and push my small edge. I'm also an accumulator, while a survivalist may look at the same situation and decide it isn't worth it.

I guess that's why I took the easy way out and asked if the risk was worth the reward. But thanks for calling me on it.

-sloth

[fisheater]

a pre flop limp in from that position would not surprise me with a mid pair, the urge to just call and slo play the set would be much stronger if not for the mutiple draws on board. A8h is still a possibility and he likes his draws. Either way the 2 pair w/limited draws to improve would tell me to lay this down and wait for a better opportunity to retrieve my chips

[IgorSmiles]

Thanks guys. Seems like the vote is 5-2 in favor of calling. Well, I felt with a draw happy board, he would push a made hand so I folded. It's been with me ever since. Pretty sure I made a weak fold but not 100%.

[MLG]

be 100% sure. That's a pretty atrocious fold.

[IgorSmiles]

[ QUOTE ]
be 100% sure. That's a pretty atrocious fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont hold back, baby. Tell me what you really think!

[MLG]

actually I was holding back. look, i just dont see how everybody who advocates a fold plan on getting chips in a tournament. its not about waiting for a better spot. its about winning chips now to better take advantage of another spot down the line.

[IgorSmiles]

I hear ya, and I'm not arguing. If I thought it was a good fold, I wouldnt have posted the hand here for opinions. But to be fair, I wasnt folding to wait for a better spot. I was folding because I thought I was beat.

[MLG]

thinking you are beat isnt some mystical sense, its a mathematical equation. you want to improve, try working out the chances of what your opponent might have, and how you fair against them. its a better way to figure out if your fold was good than a poll of the forum.

[Ogre]

I am calling. I dont think he is playing that agressive with hands that beat you

[adanthar]

Horrible, atrocious fold and it's not close.