Quick Hand:

[Baulucky]

Party 15, 10 handed.

Hero in MP3 Open raises with AsTs. Hero's image, after 3 hours, is ultra-tight, VPIP <15%.

SB 3-bets, headsup. SB is very competent long term winner.

Hero Calls.

FLOP: 3s, 8s, Jd

SB bets.

What % of the time is optimal for Hero to semi-bluff raise this?. I put Villain in TT/AK or better. I feel he'll not fold to my semi.

[Michael Davis]

"I feel he'll not fold to my semi."

Then 0%.

-Michael

[Baulucky]

Maybe I should add, that a raise may stop him charging and I could conceivably get a free card or semi again on the turn?.

0% feels too passive. No?.

[fnord_too]

There is a difference between a semi bluff and a free card play. A lot of times you semi bluff knowing if it fails you may get a free card, but if there is 0% chance of sb folding, you would not be semi-bluffing. I think this is what Michael was pointing out.

You should only play for a free card if you think it has at least a 50% chance of working I think. (The exact right number is kind of tricky, since you have to consider the cases of sb three betting or stop and going, plus the chances in all scenarios of you hitting the turn or river). You are going to be getting odds to call the turn anyway, and there are a lot of players who will three bet you here or call and lead a non scary turn, so you only end up costing yourself .5-1 BB with this play when you miss. If sb is competent, I would just call the flop and turn and fold the river if I didn't improve.

[NYplayer]

I would never raise in this spot agianst a strong player. you will get 3 bet or stop and goed very often. I think that smooth calling is also your best chance of getting a free card on the turn. If he checks the turn i would take it, you will get raised a fair amount here. I think playing in a straight forward manner is the way to go when out of position or HU against a tough player.

[Baulucky]

Thanks. Anybody else?.

FWIW, I raised got called. Turn was a Q. Check, check. Spade hit the river. Check, bet, call. He mucked JJ.

[lostinthought]

really suprising he didn't 3 bet this or pull the stop and go

also, I am suprised he didn't call 1 bet on the river..

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
also, I am suprised he didn't call 1 bet on the river..


[/ QUOTE ]


I think he just meant that he mucked after calling:

[ QUOTE ]
Check, bet, call. He mucked JJ.


[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, i think that raising the flop isn't THAT bad against many players, b/c a lot of the time, when they hold a hand that has you drawing solely to the flop they'll try for the turn CR... namely AA or JJ. With KK or QQ, sure they'll usually 3bet, but not always, and at least against them you've got 12 outs, so an extra bet going in on the flop isn't horrible. i think its really tough to say what % you need to actually get the free card to make this one profitable.

I guess it also depends on if you're always going to check behind on the turn, or if you have enough bluffing equity vs. AK after raising the flop to make up for the times when he's planning to CR with AA or JJ?

[philnewall]

Against a tough player I wouldn't go for the classic raise flop/free card play with the flush draw, because its just so obvious for a tough player. If you hit the flush you won't get much action, and if you miss he'll outplay you.

I would probably call the flop, and raise the turn if a blank comes, to fold AK, AQ and maybe TT. Yes, you will get 3-bet a lot when he has a big pair, but you'll have the odds to call, and you can get two bets in on the river when you hit the spades.

[shaundeeb]

Also, notice he picked up a gutshot for the broadwaystraight. If 1 of the 3 non spade K's comes up hero will def get multiple bets in the river with the nuts. Villian can not put him on set of Ks or Qs since he checked the turn with the overpair. QQ is semi-likely for hero but he didn't cap PF and he checked behind on the turn when the Q showed up so villian is right to try to jam the pot putting hero on AK or KQ.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]

What % of the time is optimal for Hero to semi-bluff raise this?. I put Villain in TT/AK or better. I feel he'll not fold to my semi.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he is competent as you state, he knows you will likely raise the flop with overs, and would likely 3-bet you IMO.

The only real value of a raise here is for the free card, and I doubt you'll get it more than 20% of the time.

[Jdanz]

i'm going to disagree and say almost every time, you lose almost nothing on each bet going in unless he has specifically jj or AA, maybe .02 or .03 BB per bet so what if he three bets you? i'd cap him and still take the free card on the turn.

-JDanz

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm going to disagree and say almost every time, you lose almost nothing on each bet going in unless he has specifically jj or AA, maybe .02 or .03 BB per bet so what if he three bets you? i'd cap him and still take the free card on the turn.

-JDanz

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you have 12 outs againsts most of his hands. You do not need a free card on the turn that often.

[Baulucky]

[ QUOTE ]
really suprising he didn't 3 bet this or pull the stop and go

[/ QUOTE ]

I had been v.agress. till this point, I guess his plan was to ck.raise me on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
also, I am suprised he didn't call 1 bet on the river..

[/ QUOTE ]

He did: I wrote about it in the results: Check, bet, call, muck. Otherwise I could not have seen the Jacks.

[TStoneMBD]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm going to disagree and say almost every time, you lose almost nothing on each bet going in unless he has specifically jj or AA, maybe .02 or .03 BB per bet so what if he three bets you? i'd cap him and still take the free card on the turn.

-JDanz

[/ QUOTE ]

precisely. i always raise this flop. your equity in this hand is about equal to villains unless he has AA or JJ. if he has a hand like 99 then you are ahead.

if you dont want to raise the flop. then raising the turn is another strong play, but one that i dont take very often. turn semibluff raises have proven costly to me in the past.