Value in this Semi-Bluffing, or Chip Spewing at its finest?

[aLOWdAkING]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Villain was new to the table, so no reads.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

So I figured I could take the lead by checkraising or represent a queen.

Turn: (7 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls.

Picked up another draw... thought I could represent again with another check raise. Would check/call have been better?

River: (11 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero folds.

Missed all my draws, tried a desperate attempt at picking up the pot. Bah.

Final Pot: 14 BB

[Grease]

Uggh. I would fold PF. The flop and turn c/r are fine, but I would just check/fold the river. Your opponent is undeterred by your check/raising, so I would just let it go and save the bet. An arguement could be made for betting since the pot is large, but you're not folding anything better here, and he's calling you down the vast majority of the time.

[CallMeIshmael]

Without a read on the table as v. loose/passive, this is a fold preflop.

I love the flop checkraise. A lot of his hands here aren't paired, and you can fold out better hands a lot representing that Q.

Once, he 3-bets, however, I tend to feel he is pretty commited to showdown. He could be doing it with A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif, but I think the 3-bet generally means I have either a Q or a pocket pair. And don't think a PP will fold often enough for the bluff to work.

[aLOWdAkING]

You guys fold this preflop? I think it has a lot of value.

[CallMeIshmael]

I think that depends on the game. If a typical hand goes:

One limper, button raises...

Then, I don't think it has a lot of value. But, if a lot of pots are 5-6 limped then, yeah, it does.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys fold this preflop? I think it has a lot of value.

[/ QUOTE ]

On a typical table (3.5 to the flop, most pots raised preflop), I don't touch J9s until LMP at the earliest. I like J9s, don't get me wrong, but I do think that it's one of the most overplayed hands in hold'em, and you really do need better pot odds than you got here to make it profitable.

[CallMeIshmael]

In what I consider a 'typical' party 2/4 I've constructed in TTH, the EV of JTs and J9s limping UTG is as follows:

JTs: +0.007BB
J9s: -0.255 BB

The one gap makes this hand play a lot worse than its no gap couterpart. (note: I'm sure numbers would not be that far off for UTG+2)

[Yeknom58]

Turn play was just silly. What do you think the button is 3 betting. If I wanted to represent a Q I would have capped the flop and lead the turn.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn play was just silly. What do you think the button is 3 betting. If I wanted to represent a Q I would have capped the flop and lead the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero had somewhere in the order of 14 outs on the turn (adjusting for a possible made FH/Quads by villian, or cards which would complete Hero's draw but might make a FH for his opponent). And that's assuming that Villian is not on a naked AK or PP below TT--Hero could have more outs than that.

Combine the huge number of outs with the possibility that a turn c/r will fold an overpair immediately, and the play is just fine.

[slavic]

Unless the party 3/6 has changes in the last 6 months, the game is just to tight and aggressive to play this hand up front. In 2/4 you may get away with it, higher your going to pay multiple bets with a bad holding, out of position.

If you want to respresent a Q here I'd probably take the obvious play, call the flop, checkraise the turn.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Combine the huge number of outs with the possibility that a turn c/r will fold an overpair immediately, and the play is just fine.

[/ QUOTE ]


It is certainly a plausible play. A little math...

Lets just say villian has AA or KK 100% of the time. Hero has

vs AA: 8 spades + 3 8s + 3 Ks = 14

vs KK: 8 spades + 3 8s = 11

Average of: 12.5 outs.

Lets assume that villian never plays back at you.

At the time of the check raise, there were 8 BBs in the pot.

Hero has to call, clearly. He only loses the equity in the second BB.

(46-12.5/46) * 1BB = 0.73BB.

That means, his bluff has to show 0.73BB of profit. Therefore, he has to fold 0.73/8 * 100% = 9.1% of the time.

I *think* you are looked up more than 9 times outta 10 here, by the average player. But, probably not 19 times in 20.

I'm not sure how large an effect the things I've left unaccounted would have:

-The times he has AK, a different pocket pair, or just trash
-The % of times we are 3-bet
-The fact that hero sometimes follows through on a river bet greatly changes the math of the situation

[dangerous_badman]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls,

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless your game selection is absolutely superb, I really can't see the value in this.

[aLOWdAkING]

Alright, so the ep limp was bad. Would you guys limp with JTs though?

[hate]

Any day, most any table. T9s too, for that matter.