AT in BB, questionable plays on every round

[3.1416]

2nd orbit so no specific reads. Like most pokerroom tables it averages around 35% seeing the flop. Comments on all streets appreciated; I'm not confident on any of them.

PokerRoom 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop:Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif,T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Ok to call? I figure button could have a wide range of hands.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, Button calls.

Standard check-raise to knock out opponents, right?

Turn: (5.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

Looks like I'm behind here, but I probably have 5 outs and I'm getting 7.25 to 1 on the call.

River: (8.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls.

[istewart]

I'd fold preflop. I would probably play the rest very similar.

[Homer315]

I like every street. Flop check-raise is good. Button might have a Q and that's why he raised on the turn, but I think it may be just as likely that he thought you had crap on the flop and he is raising with an under pair like 99 or 88, hoping you'll fold. River plays itself.

I guess the only questionable move is whether to fold the turn after the raise. A read would be good on this guy, so it's a close decision I think...I'd probably have called and checked the river unimproved. If button bet the river too in that case, I would be sad and am not sure what I'd do...

[milesdyson]

I'm folding the turn. You're already behind - that is obvious - and you need to improve. What range of hands does button have here?

AA (2 outs) (3 combos)
KK (5 outs) (6 combos)
KQ (5 outs) (12 combos)
AQ (2 outs) (9 combos)
TT (0 outs) (1 combo)

(2*3 + 5*6 + 5*12 + 2*9 + 0)/31 = 3.7 weighted outs.

You can usually only pick up an extra 2 BB out of him on the river, and sometimes you'll improve but still lose. You should fold the turn.

edit: I forgot QQ.

[3.1416]

Thanks for your comments. Calling the raise on the turn was very close; he could easily have AQ taking away 3 outs; on the other hand there's a slight chance I'm still ahead. If I didn't improve I'd probably fold to a river bet. Too weak? If he bets I think I can give him credit for Qx or JJ or better 90% of the time.

[istewart]

Oh, good points miles. I didn't see the turn raise.

[3.1416]

[ QUOTE ]
You can usually only pick up an extra 2 BB out of him on the river, and sometimes you'll improve but still lose. You should fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
After looking at your analysis I have to agree. I should have discounted my outs more than I did.

[ QUOTE ]
edit: I forgot QQ.

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Which happens to be what he had /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
edit: I forgot QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Which happens to be what he had /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
At least he didn't cap the river with the 2nd nuts.