$/hr interesting...

[Mr_J]

The solid players on this forum could make $40-$50 an hour at the $22s. This is with a 23-30% ROI and 30% rakeback. This is also playing 7 tables an hour (I do this with 4 tables).

Say you hit 23% for $40 an hour, 30 hrs a week. You could make over 50kUS a year with 2 months off. That's also tax free where I live.

20% at the $33s gives $53 an hour.
15% at the $55s gives $68 an hour.
10% at the $109s gives $95 an hour.

Assuming raptor plays 400 $109s a week and hits 8% ROI, and plays 7 days a week for 40 weeks a year, he will earn $182k over the next 12 months. Not bad for an 18yo /images/graemlins/wink.gif

The 23% at the $22s is obviously the most achievable, and the rest just come with hard work/effort.

50k a year off a 1k bankroll. How many forms of gambling can claim that.

Thought some people (newbies mainly I guess) might be interesting in actual figures and earning power. Sort of helps me to look at figures like this so I don't try and rush myself up to $100/hr (if I can even get there).

[Voltron87]

All these "Win this much at this level for this many hours this many months" are total bullshit. You're wasting your time with extrapolating winrates.

[Mr_J]

"You're wasting your time with extrapolating winrates."

I don't think so. It can help decide the best way to achieve your goals. E.g, I want to make 50k off sngs. It helps to know that I don't have to be playing $55s to get there.

If you say this because you can't predict what will happen, well that's a bit silly. Over the course of a year this will become a very large sample. Very unlikely you will be far off your estimate, esp at the $33s and $22s.

[theordinaryboy]

not really about the post but im not getting rakeback at the moment which im beginning to believe is criminal.

Can i play at party with a new account with one that has rakeback or am i just buggered??

Also do you know how not having rakeback would affect these stats.

cheers

[raptor517]

Mr_J, i think extrapolating winrates is a fine thing to do. you base everything off of an roi that may change 3 points in either direction over the course of the year, assuming your play stays the same and u already have a large sample size. therefore, imo, its not a waste to set goals like this

my only goal at the beginning of this year was to hit 100k. that will be EASY. figure something small, like the 400 a week. hell, even make it REALLY small, set the goal for 300 a week, which will be an average. play only 40 weeks a year. assume 10 dollars a tourney, between 9 and 10% roi. 12,000 sngs a year. 120k profit. nothin to it /images/graemlins/wink.gif. of course, imo, my roi will be higher, and ill play more than 12k sngs this year. assuming constant play, i estimate around 20k this year. i always set my goals low though, and i def think 100k i can achieve by August, September at the latest.

and no, you dont have to play 109s or 55s or something super high to manage this. for the amount of return you can get, sngs can be amazing things. 5k bankroll is MORE than enough for 109s. if that can turn into 100k+, thats a pretty solid deal imo. holla

edit: i forgot to factor rakeback. assume only 25%, 9 bucks per, 20k sngs. thats 2.25 per sng, so 45k just in rakeback. thats about the average starting salary of a college grad. in RAKEBACK. bwahahahaha

[Mr_J]

"Also do you know how not having rakeback would affect these stats."

In my $22 example it's worth $126 a week. The higher the buyin you play, the more rakeback will be worth as a part of your total return.

"Can i play at party with a new account with one that has rakeback or am i just buggered??"

You don't need to close your party account, just open one at a party skin under an affiliate (eurobet, empire, interpoker etc). Don't ask you is a good affiliate, you're not allowed to. You should get a few private msgs though.

[TheUsher]

<----- needs rakeback. Pffft someone I recognize here please pm me. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Mr_J]

"thats about the average starting salary of a college grad."

Yep. That's one great thing about gambling, you can make alot of money at any age. The great thing about sngs is you don't need alot of money to do it. Sportsbetting is my thing though which is why I'm in a bit of a rush. With a 100k roll I'd be earning more per hr than gigabet at the $5k HU tournies. Obviously I don't have a 100k roll, but I'm working on that and that's why I'm here.

[raptor517]

if u had a 100k roll would u bet 1k per game or what? i dont know a lot about sports betting but i am very interested. holla

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
All these "Win this much at this level for this many hours this many months" are total bullshit. You're wasting your time with extrapolating winrates.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain why.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
"thats about the average starting salary of a college grad."

Yep. That's one great thing about gambling, you can make alot of money at any age. The great thing about sngs is you don't need alot of money to do it. Sportsbetting is my thing though which is why I'm in a bit of a rush. With a 100k roll I'd be earning more per hr than gigabet at the $5k HU tournies. Obviously I don't have a 100k roll, but I'm working on that and that's why I'm here.

[/ QUOTE ]

PLaying 5K HU's vs the types of players that would plays them off a 100K roll would be VERY risky.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
All these "Win this much at this level for this many hours this many months" are total bullshit. You're wasting your time with extrapolating winrates.

[/ QUOTE ]

Voltron is correct.

Irieguy

PS-Daliman, if he doesn't explain why, I will.

[Mr_J]

"PLaying 5K HU's vs the types of players that would plays them off a 100K roll would be VERY risky."

Wasn't saying he'd use 5k to do it.

"ith a 100k roll I'd be earning more per hr than gigabet at the $5k HU tournies"

He'd win this actually. I think I could earn $500 an hr (off a 100k BR), gigabet hitting 5% would only need to play 2 an hr. My variance would be much lower though.

[Mr_J]

You guys aren't getting it. It's not trying to estimate how much someone will make, just estimating how much can be made. There's a difference. One is theory and the other is real world. The real world has variables that you don't include when trying to estimate. You can't predict whether you'll bust, play above your level, what your true ROI actually is, whether you'll be sick, go on tilt, take holdidays, quit poker, how many hours you'll acutally put in etc etc.

The point of my post was just to say that 50k can be made at the $22s. This shows there is significant profit to be made at most buyins, even at the $22s (I think the 50k figure at $22s will surprise some people). That was what I wanted to say, and is why I thought it'd be more interesting to the newer players.

[lacky]

Well put. I have been able to average over 10K a month in every game I've played lots on paper, including 3/6 limit. The reality usually falls short though unfortunatly. I try 15/30 and drop $3000, or I hit a 30000 hand run at 3/6 at under 1 bb/100 all of a sudden, or I get sick and spend a couple days laying on the bathroom floor and it takes a week to get back in the groove. I get bored and decide to play omaha for a month, then wonder why I'm here when I could make so much more there. I read some damn post and completely botch the concept and play like a moron for a few hundred sng's, read a new book and do the same at limit....

For whatever reason, I usually end up making about half what I forecast. It's still a good job though. It's just that $100k a year has been alot harder to get to than I would like.

I have more luck with yearly goals. I went full time Jan 1 of last year and needed $30k to make it work. I finished the year at $54.5k, and was frustrated it wasn't more. But hey, good year still. This years goal is $100k. I'm at $19k+ at the moment, so not too far off. Will I get there? I have no clue. I am sure at this point I'll make a living though if I just put in the hours, so I worry less.

Would still be nice if my projections would hold up for a change though...

Steve

[The Yugoslavian]

Mr. J,

I think what you're doing is a psychologically dangerous thing to do unless you are *very* unambitious with your extrapolations. Goals are good, but basing them purely off of statistics is asking for a letdown.

Theoretically, sure, what you have outlined is fine to me. I do the same thing as well sometimes. However, I've completely stopped putting almost any stock into it as being indicative of anything except that there is enough dead money out there to make a living playing poker should someone with the psychological fortitude and solid skills choose to do so.

Yugoslav

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
"PLaying 5K HU's vs the types of players that would plays them off a 100K roll would be VERY risky."

Wasn't saying he'd use 5k to do it.

"ith a 100k roll I'd be earning more per hr than gigabet at the $5k HU tournies"

He'd win this actually. I think I could earn $500 an hr (off a 100k BR), gigabet hitting 5% would only need to play 2 an hr. My variance would be much lower though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I the only one who doesn't understand a thing in this post?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"PLaying 5K HU's vs the types of players that would plays them off a 100K roll would be VERY risky."

Wasn't saying he'd use 5k to do it.

"ith a 100k roll I'd be earning more per hr than gigabet at the $5k HU tournies"

He'd win this actually. I think I could earn $500 an hr (off a 100k BR), gigabet hitting 5% would only need to play 2 an hr. My variance would be much lower though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I the only one who doesn't understand a thing in this post?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. But my brain and body has paid dearly for my week in Vegas so I figured I'd just ignore the post you quoted altogether.

Yugoslav
Who very well may go back to sleep now...

[Mr_J]

"PLaying 5K HU's vs the types of players that would plays them off a 100K roll would be VERY risky."

Wasn't saying he'd use 100k to play the 5k HU. In case you mistunderstood and thought I wanted to play the 5k HU with 100k, that's a hell no.

"with a 100k roll I'd be earning more per hr than gigabet at the $5k HU tournies"

I change my mind and think he would earn more per hr than I would with a 100k BR for sportsbetting. However, his ROR and variance is MUCH MUCH higher. If I was to be more aggressive then sports would earn more.

I think this is a bit clearer now?? Not that it really matters since the line I originally quoted is a silly 'mines bigger than yours'.

[microbet]

There is an 'Other Gambling' forum and if you go there, I'll follow, but, please post as much info as you are willing to share on your sports betting. (sports you bet, how you pick the winners, stuff like that)

[Mr_J]

Response to Irie. I'm not going to say "ok Mr J, earn x% ROI over y number of sngs and you'll have XXXXX by the end of the year".

The point was that it is POSSIBLE to make 50k a year off the $22s, without working a silly number of hours. Just theory, and not a guideline.

My own goal is to make 50k off poker, but I'm not going to be doing it at the $22s playing X number sngs a day and aim to hit Y % ROI.

My $ goal is independent of my ROI goals.

Anyway let's dump this thread /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Mr_J]

"*very* unambitious with your extrapolations. Goals are good, but basing them purely off of statistics is asking for a letdown."

Forgot to address this. My goal $wise it to make $50k+ (50, 40, 60k, not much difference to me). My goal skill level wise is to be playing the $109s and beating them for 10% ROI, or $100 an hour. I'm not going to set my buyin level and ROI target based on what I want to make this year. What I make this year will just be the result of my buyin/ROI goal. I think this explains it??

[viennagreen]

i don't know anything about sportsbetting, but i've always assumed that it was pure gambling (unless you are the bookmaker)..

is sportsbetting really +EV? how do you go about learning it?

[The Yugoslavian]

Sportsbetting can certainly be +$EV. From what I gather from those who know what they're doing, it has very little to do with sports and more to do with being patient and watching how the Vegas odds fluctuate coming up on a juicy game.

Unfortuantely I have no idea what a very good sport bettor can hope to make and/or what the swings are.

Yugoslav

[Voltron87]

Disclaimer- I am not a +EV sportsbettor.

+EV sportsbetting requires an extensive knowledge of the sport in question, the factors that come into paly, and how the odds are made and influenced. This takes a lot of experience, and it is not an overnight process. 1/2 of it is knowing about the players and teams, etc, 1/2 of it is understanding the odds and when something is out of line. It takes a long time to learn the habits of bookmakers and understand the system.

[Mr_J]

"+EV sportsbetting requires an extensive knowledge of the sport in question"

Not really. There are 2 different ways to beat sports

1. Take advantage of bonuses (much larger than for poker), middles, scalps, bad lines etc.

2. Bet +EV picks. You do NOT have to be a handicapper to beat sports. The picks just need to be +EV, doesn't matter where they come from. Most 'servies' and 'touts' are total scam artists or have no clue, but there are some honest services out there. Also, if you bet sports seriously chances are you'll meet other cappers so why not take advantage of that.

"1/2 of it is knowing about the players and teams, etc, 1/2 of it is understanding the odds and when something is out of line."

Half true. That is how many cappers work, but it's not the only way to come across +EV bets.

For the record, many of the picks I bet are my own (around 450), but most come from other sources.

[Bigwig]

I'm a +EV sports bettor. But nowhere near what I make at SNG's. I now consider my sports wagering a 'bonus.' My advice on sports betting: college BB to win bets. Best money around.

That's all I got.

[Mr_J]

"From what I gather from those who know what they're doing, it has very little to do with sports and more to do with being patient and watching how the Vegas odds fluctuate coming up on a juicy game."

Not true, like I said ti voltron there are different ways to beat sports.

As far as variance and profits go, that really depends on your bankroll and money management. It is really different for everyone. Some make 5k some make millions. Some are happy with 40% or less growth, others aim for a few hundred %. Some bet 0.5%, some bet much more.