Raising for a free card with a couple of overs....

[imported_smoove]

<font color="blue">What do you think of this? Maybe the pot wasn't big enough to mess around like this. UTG+1 was very loose and very passive, pre and postflop, so I was pretty sure I could get a free card. BB was a TAG, possibly a 2+2er, so I figured he wouldn't be coldcalling.</font>

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

[Catt]

I don't like this. Villain is described as very loose and passive, yet he bets this flop. I think you have to give him credit for connecting on something. The pot is offering 6.5 to 1 when the action is to you; I think you have to believe that everyone folds out and Villain calls the raise -- meaning you're paying 2 bets to win 7.5, or justy about 3.5 to 1. How many outs do you count for your overs? Even if you count a full 6 outs, and even if you do in fact get the free card, that's 6 outs twice or about 3:1 to hit an over.

There's just not enough of an overlay to try this in this small pot -- any number of things can go wrong (somone calls or raises the flop; someone leads into you on the turn; you don't actually have 6 clean outs; you're drawing practically dead to loosie's flopped 2 pair; etc.) and even if the stars fully align for you (as they did here), the +EV of a fully-aligned play isn't great.

[Shillx]

Let's say that everything works out perfectly and you get the free card (and you have 6 clean outs). In this case, the pot will be 9.5 SB and you will be risking 2 SB. Your 6 outer is worth about 24% of time pot so:

EV = 9.5*.24 - 2 = .28 SB/Hand

So if all goes well it seems like an okay play. There are lots of problems with it however as you already know. Personally I would probably fold in this spot eventhough I'm pretty sure that my outs are clean. Part of the reason why people limp with hands like AJ is to outplay people after the flop. Namely the pot won't be big enough to chase something like 2 overs and a backdoor flush in an unraised pot. But when you do flop top pair, you will offer worse odds to those who are calling down with bottom pair or a gutshot (as they might be correct to do so in a raised pot preflop).

Brad

[imported_smoove]

Thanks guys, that's pretty much what I figured. Another one of those somewhat silly moves that just happened to work out. Good advice, as usual.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
EV = 9.5*.24 - 2 = .28 SB/Hand

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to do the math thing again. How often must the free card play work for it to be profitable? Assume Hero folds if 3-bet or bet into on the turn. Let x = % of time Hero gets the free card

EV = x(.28) - (1-x)*2 = 2.28 x - 2

We want EV = 0 for break-even. This gives x = 2/2.28 = 88%. So Hero needs to be more than 88% sure that he's going to get the free card. I find that I make estimates which are off by as much as 15-25%, so I wouldn't make this play. This estimate is also a little high, as the EV for catching the card assumes you make it to the river (here, we've assumed you fold if bet into on the turn, which you SHOULD do).

I dislike this play. If you give yourself a couple backdoor draws, or add a gutshot, then I think it has a much better chance of being a good play.

[Womble]

Raising for a free card is only good for strong draws. Top pair draws are not strong so you want to get out on the flop with poor odds or see the turn cheaply and escape then if you can.

[MrWookie47]

This has been a great discussion for me. I think I've made this play far too often in smallish pots. I'm not sure if I dislike it more when it fails, or when it works, because then I'm tempted to try it again.