Bubble conundrum - do I give up playing for first?

[Scuba Chuck]

How do you play this hand?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t30)
Button (t4450)
Hero (t355)
BB (t3165)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t300, Hero......

[Slim Pickens]

Nice one.

What about this line. Call. This could be an application of proxy protection (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1953113&amp;page=2&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;vc=1), or at least close to it. You might be able to check this to a showdown. Either way, you get two free shots at third while the other shorty goes through the blinds and you fold your button and UTG. Tough one. I say call and see if either of your opponents is smart enough to raise you, where of course you have to fold.

Meh.... just my stupid idea.

Slim

PS: Of course if the answer is so obvious and I missed it, well, I suck, but I knew that already.

[curtains]

fold

[ZebraAss]

I like your thinkin' Slim. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

-Zebra

PS: Creative ideas are what makes SNG's fun for me.

PPS: Where is eastbay when you need him. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[curtains]

btw Im sorry....I thought the button raised...need to reevaluate real quickly

[curtains]

Probably you should call and pray for a miracle, but I don't know it's a very weird spot.

Also if you fold, not only do you get two chances to money but you also have to survive just your BB and can fold your SB and wait to see if the shorty busts again. Against good player's I'd be scared to call, because I know for sure the button is betting on the flop. If I was the button and SB called and button checked, and it was checked to me, I bet every single flop.

[curtains]

Also button is a giant idiot for not raising preflop.

[ZebraAss]

What buy-in are you sportin' these days there Scuba?

[Scuba Chuck]

This is a $33. does that change your opinion?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a $33. does that change your opinion?

[/ QUOTE ] If neither of them are LAGgy in any way, even with minraises, you fold. If they're Loose-passive fish, call.

Don't think it matters much though.

What do you think you need to call a bet from button on the flop? 2 pair, trips, straight, full house?

[Nacarno]

Even if you double or triple up, your chances of winning are still tiny. Fold.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you double or triple up, your chances of winning are still tiny. Fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Scuba Chuck]

Turns out as I was posting this hand, which was while the hand was going on, #1 and #2 did battle. Folding in this hand allowed these guys to battle it out. #2 lost. I came in second. The humor continues. Mr Hangeronner guy with 30 chips came in third.

[RobGW]

Yet another reason to fold this. Do you normally post hands while you are playing?

[ZebraAss]

No...how can you say it is that simple.

Yes folding will...

-Save you 50% of your chips.
-Allow the big stacks to be in a hand together
-Allow you to survive the big blind leaving you with like 55 chips left counting on Shortie to lose this one hand.

You are going to be counting on the Short stack to lose 2 straight hands if you fold the K10. If you call you are giving yourself a chance to win a huge pot which will put you in contention for a top placing. If you lose you still are counting on Shortie to lose a hand but if he wins you are fighting with him for 3rd.
Folding.
Suicide, you are counting 100% on Shortie losing 2 straight hands
Calling.
Increase chances of placing higher while giving up the 2nd safety valve hand

-Zebra

PS: All these one word answers are driving me crazy.

[RobGW]

Well I didn't say it was simple. But I think the chances of shortstack surviving two blinds with random hands is low. The chances of hero winning with KT against a caller and a random hand in the BB is probably decent but not great. Even if he wins he is still shortstacked and most likely looking at 3rd place anyway. If he calls and BB raises what is he going to do? He has to call and then he is all in and in danger of finishing 4th with another person with only $30. I just think of the risk reward ratio in this situation. The risk is busting out in 4th. The reward is 3rd place which he'll probably get anyways by folding.

[ZebraAss]

If BB raises he is Folding...

Risk: Giving up 150 chips and ONE HAND (the 2nd hand shortie has to win which otherwise would be your BB safety valve).
Reward: The chance to win a huge pot which DOES put you in contention for 1st by giving yourself more chips. It is ScubaChuck man...give he chips and he will do the rest.

If you fold this you are going for 3rd and 3rd is all you will get.

[RobGW]

OK Zebra, I think I see it from a different angle now. If hero completes, he has $55 left. If BB raises, hero folds. Shorty still has to win his two blind hands or he is out while hero doesn't have to get involved. If hero happens to catch a K or a T he may triple up. If he doesnt he folds to any bet. So the reward is tripling up and the risk is the essentially the same whether he completes or not.

[ZebraAss]

WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW...i mis-read the HH

After all this time too...shame on me. I thought Hero still had 205 left after completing.
Well I guess it doesn’t make much of a difference at all though.

-Zebra

PS: its those silly different angles Slim and have been looking at lately.

[ZebraAss]

I mis-read this HH on so may levels it isnt even funny.

I am calling the 150 chips leaving myself with 55. I can not find ONE SINGLE reason why folding here is Optimal.

You get a chance to win a huge pot. AND SHORTIE HAS TO GO THROUGH 2 HANDS!!!

Calling is the only play.

-Zebra

PS: If BB raises you fold.

[curtains]

Dont think calling is the only play. As I said, it's very unlikely the hand will be checked down.

[ZebraAss]

You aren’t exactly counting on it being checked down. In this situation you are trying to use your chips wisely. Having 205 chips is not going to get you any where. Investing another 150 chips in hope to see a flop...in hope to having an awesome hand or having it checked down.

You need to think of how to properly invest your chips...and I think this is the best way to do it.

-Zebra

[Apathy]

I wouldn't even consider calling here, the odds against getting to show your hand down are next to none. Do you realise that if the flop come K-10-6 you should fold to a bet???? You might need those 150 chips if this shorty wins a couple all ins.

[ZebraAss]

If the shortie wins a couple all ins you are screwed.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
If the shortie wins a couple all ins you are screwed.

[/ QUOTE ]

man I love NLHE

[Wu36]

Interesting hand, if I don't have to post the sb its a fold. With 150 already invested I like calling, the extra 150 doesn't make enough of a difference given UTG's stack.

[Slim Pickens]

Actually, I misread the HH as well, but it doesn't change my answer. I agree there's very little chance of it being checked down, but since there is very little utility for you in those 150 chips you need to complete (your first would be the SB after this one if shorty survives his two all-in blinds) my answer is still the same. Call and await a miracle that would allow you to contend ITM. I think my threshhold for throwing in those last 55 chips is flopping top 2 pair.

Slim

[ZebraAss]

*bump*

[Scuba Chuck]

Zebra, do you think that this is a sign of being weak-tight? Or is this correct play considering the circumstances? Frankly, I think it's the latter. Show me where I'm wrong?

[ZebraAss]

I just thought this was a fun hand...and I want to know where others stand.

PS: Others meaning everyone else...if you dont care its okay but if you think anything at all about his thread post it please.

[Degen]

complete...you'll still have chips and be the button next hand...and if you catch some of that flop you could easily wind up with 1000-1200 chips and an outside shot at victory.

Degen

[ZebraAss]

but what if short stack wins 2 all ins...you will need those 150 chips so you can survive a fold when you are in the SB if you make it through the BB

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
complete...you'll still have chips and be the button next hand...and if you catch some of that flop you could easily wind up with 1000-1200 chips and an outside shot at victory.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that this is the 'other' alternative. The question is, do you risk going OOTM here? If you hit the flop, it doesn't guarantee you win the hand. When I think about applying probabilities to this, and if I considered an $EV analysis, it would seem to me that not getting sucked into this hand is the best play.

I think this is one of those hands that can be debated for a long time. And the answer will come down to individual style differences. IMO, over a thousand hands, there is more $ to be made folding this hand.

FWIW, I folded this hand, a king did hit the flop, and big stack won the hand with a straight. I came in second. This is obviously a results oriented slant to this hand. But, IMHO, the probabilities of coming in better than third by playing this hand, are equal to or less than the probabilities of coming in better than third by folding this hand.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you realise that if the flop come K-10-6 you should fold to a bet????

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone else actually belive this?

[ZebraAss]

I believe what ever you believe Mr. Nottom.

[boondockst]

What $33 SNG opponent isn't smart enough to raise a measly 55 chips? i'd make that move with any 2 cards in the hopes hero would fold (which you're saying he should)

[ZebraAss]

...new angle.

[The Yugoslavian]

I would fold this 100% of the time.

The 300 chips you save by folding could make a difference if shorty gets through his blinds (you only have to survive one allin while shorty still will have to survive a few more). One of the problems I have with calling here is that I can't really think of any flop I'd want to play unelss it was KKK, TTT or perhaps KTT or KKT.

Yugoslav

[ZebraAss]

...then you are forfeiting any chance you have of winning this tournament.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you realise that if the flop come K-10-6 you should fold to a bet????

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone else actually belive this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling here (on one of the BEST possible flops for you) would in my opinion be incorrect if you believed it likely that the bettor had as little as 4 outs, very possible as any high cards have at least an inside str8 draw.

This is a really clear pre flop fold. This question might actually be interesting if we had like QQ or AK.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
...then you are forfeiting any chance you have of winning this tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm okay with that in this situation. Also, I frankly think that by folding here I am *maximizing* my very meager chances at 1st place.

Yugoslav

[PoBoy321]

Hero has virtually 0 chance of winning this tournament. He does, however, have an excellent chance at placing and finishing in the money. With 0 FE and a very marginal hand, I like folding and just letting UTG bust out on one of the next 2 hands.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
...then you are forfeiting any chance you have of winning this tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Zebra, out of curiosity, does it ever seem correct to quit playing for first?

When does maximizing your ROI become more important than maximizing your first place win probability? If ONLY first place pays out, then you MUST play this hand. But fortunately, finishing third here has a $27 profit (+81% ROI), and finishing 4th has a -$33 loss (-100% ROI).

[ZebraAss]

I don't think short stack can win 2 all in's in a row. He is an a$$ hole for leaving himself with 30 chips to begin with /images/graemlins/smirk.gif. But I just don’t believe he can do it.

But if by chance he does that means you have to win one all in(2 if you call). Giving yourself the same chance of busting as he has. But his chances occur prior to yours.
If you call you are giving yourself a chance to triple up with virtually no risk(unless you throw in the rest of your chips and lose or if short stack wins 2 all ins and you win one).

I am sorry...I am sticking with call.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I am sorry...I am sticking with call.


[/ QUOTE ]

No reason to be sorry. I truly think there are merits to calling here.

The one thing I'm asking you is, after the flop comes, at what stage do you commit yourself to this hand? Are you saying that you're willing to put in the extra 150 in chips to see if you flop a monster? Otherwise, if it's just king high you'd fold? Or, would you be willing to commit the remainder of your chips to a king high flop?

[GanAnim]

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