How's my frop pran?

[sfer]

Commerce 20/40. I openraise UTG+2 with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB a loose aggro tendencies player calls, and retarded loose erratic BB calls.

Frop is K /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Checked to me, I bet, SB calls, which means he has a pair or an Ace or a gutshot, BB checkraises meaning he has two crubs, a K, a set, or some odd 2-pair. I think for a second, consider 3-betting, but decide I'm going to raise any turn card that isn't a crub so I can force these two jokers to pay the max and take a free showdown since I'm ahead of like 70% of the range of hands they might have and most of those hands want to see a river cheap. Okay?

[jt1]

That's what I do when I think I'm probably ahead but would like a free showdown. However, don't you think the retard would 3 bet his flush draw? And what would you do? You can't fold the turn, but you'd have to fold the river, right?

[Entity]

Would he do this with QJ?

Me rikey.

[gaming_mouse]

Are you really ahead of 70% of their range of hands? I'd think it's about 70% that BB has a K, unless he was REALLY a LAG. Even if he calls w/ any two suited, is c/r'ing a flush draw in middle relative position that likely a play for him? I'm not saying it's not possible, but it seems the simplest explanation is that he really does have a K.

Am I thinking too tight?

[mr pink]

what's the plan if you get 3-bet? dump it?

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
what's the plan if you get 3-bet? dump it?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have odds to catch an out that will probably make a winner against a 3 bet by this guy or anyone else for that matter. You can fold the river but if this guy would check raise a draw then he might 3 bet it and lead the river also. I like this play, but against extreme LAG's or maniacs it is best to just call down.

[Shillx]

BB checkraises meaning he has two crubs, a K, a set, or some odd 2-pair.

Do you really have enough equity on the turn to push it? If the turn bricks out you are looking at 55 possible ways he can have a flush draw. There are about 100 ways he can have a king plus 21 for 2-pair and 4 for a set (not including KKK). Your equity against those ~125 hands is 10.8%. You have 70% equity against QJ and 80% against the flush draw. So your total equity is:

Equity: .68*.108 + .28*.8 + .08*.7 = ~35%

Granted it won't always be this high because the 3rd player will take some from you, but you probably have about 30% equity should a blank fall. Since you have enough to call down, it is best to get that extra bet in should everyone be drawing. This hand looks fine to me.

Brad

[Mike Gallo]

Dave,

Sounds good.

My, you have changed, last year you would have three bet without a second thought.

[masonx]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[nolanfan34]

Dare I say, prerfrect?

What if the A /images/graemlins/club.gif hits the turn? Call a bet and fold the river if you don't fill up?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]

Are you really ahead of 70% of their range of hands? I'd think it's about 70% that BB has a K, unless he was REALLY a LAG. Even if he calls w/ any two suited, is c/r'ing a flush draw in middle relative position that likely a play for him? I'm not saying it's not possible, but it seems the simplest explanation is that he really does have a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very specific read I had on him given how he had played for the prior 90 minutes. His standard line would not have been to check/call, bet the turn with a Kx hand.

[sfer]

The rest of the hand is uninteresting.

I called the flop raise and the SB called. The turn was the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif, they checked to me and I bet, they both called.

The river was a small spade making the board K /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif x /images/graemlins/spade.gif, they checked, I bet, SB called, and the BB pulled ye olde shuffle/shuffle/scowl/muck and MHWG.

[me454555]

I've strated 3 betting a lot more flop checkraises lately b/c I can't always count on a flush draw to bet the turn.