First hand of a Party 100+9 SNG

[Dudd]

How's my line here? I thought about reraising preflop, but out of position against who knows how many limpers who would be enticed by playing a big pot on the first hand, I decided to just call and see a flop. All undercards was pretty favorable, and I didn't put anyone on an overpair since the initial raise was small enough to expect several of the limpers to come in with favorable implied odds, so I thought that the raiser on the flop was making a continuation bet with high cards. Of course, once there were not one, not two, but three check raises all in behind me, it was clear that I was drawing to two outs, and I made the obvious fold. Any thoughts though prior to that point?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP3 (t1000)
CO (t1000)
Button (t1000)
Hero (t1000)
BB (t1000)
UTG (t1000)
UTG+1 (t1000)
UTG+2 (t1000)
MP1 (t1000)
MP2 (t1000)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, UTG+2 calls t15, MP1 calls t15, MP2 calls t15, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t60</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t45, UTG+2 calls t45, MP1 calls t45, MP2 calls t45.

Flop: (t375) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets t250</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t940 (All-In)</font>, UTG+2 calls t940 (All-In), MP1 calls t940 (All-In), MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Hero folds.

Turn: (t4045) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

River: (t4045) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 3 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t4045

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG+1 has 4h 4s (full house, fours full of eights).
UTG+2 has 5c 5h (full house, fives full of eights).
MP1 has As Ts (one pair, eights).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins t4045. </font>

[citanul]

any line that includes raising to 600 and then folding on the flop when you start the hand with 1000 chips is horrible.

citanul

edit: even if you were right.

re-edit:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Td 73 8.08 815 90.25 15 1.66 0.086
4s 4h 86 9.52 802 88.82 15 1.66 0.101
5c 5h 729 80.73 159 17.61 15 1.66 0.813

you were 8.6% likely to win the hand after the flop if you knew exactly where you were in the hand. you would have been calling what, 340 to win 4385. seems like a bad fold.

[adanthar]

Either bet 200/fold to a raise or check/fold the flop. I like the second one better with 6 people in.

[betgo]

I may be tight, but what about folding to the initial pot-sized bet on the flop. MP3 raised preflop and is representing an overpair. He probably had a bigger pair than yours but wisely decided to fold to all the action. You could also flat call.

I like calling a raise here with TT preflop, because you are getting great odds for your set. However, the action in early rounds tends to be loose, and I prefer to have a stronger hand before putting in 40 BBs.

[citanul]

there are good arguments to be made for playing TT for purely set value early on in such spots.

citanul

[Dudd]

I agree that it probably is a negative chip EV fold, but I'd guess that it is +$EV. You didn't include the flush draw, and with that, I'm 4% to win the hand. With that, I'm risking 340 chips to win 4050, so I'm getting roughly 12-1 to win. For simplicity, let's say that I win every time I win this hand, which won't be true, but it should be close. I'll lose 12 buyins and win one, for a total of 500-13(109)= -917. If I stick around with 340 left, I'm just two double ups away from being back above the starting stack. Let's say that I'm 50/50 to win those two double ups, for a .25% chance of winning both, and let's also say that if I double up twice, I'll average a third place finish, which isn't too unreasonable considering that sometime I'll double up once or twice again and have a fighting chance for first, while other times I still won't make the money. So, of those 13 buyins, rather than winning once, I'll win 200 dollars 13/4, for a total of 13/4(200)-13(109)= -767. Obviously I'm in bad shape either way, but I think that it's better folding and still holding enough chips to have a fighting chance (remember, this is the very first hand, so I'll have a bunch of hands at 10/15 and 15/30 to choose to push with). The question I have is, how could I have played this to not get into this situation in the first place?

Edit: This is in response to citanul saying I should have called the final 340, knowing full well I was behind. I agree that there are good arguments for folding to the original raise, although for what it's worth the original raiser claimed to have had AK.

[betgo]

If everyone checks, I'll bet my overpair, but with a pot-sized raise ahead of you and many-way action, it doesn't look so great.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
there are good arguments to be made for playing TT for purely set value early on in such spots.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

In pots that become big preflop early on I think playing the hand VERY cautiously, and mostly for set value is necessary. Check raising this flop is a bad idea, I like check calling to see what teh players left to act are going to do better then check raising, I also like leading the flop better then check raising... Oh by the way, check-fold is clearly the best option, you have to worry about overpairs, flush draws+overcards and sets, all of which have you either dominated or are slightly ahead, I would be most concerned about an overpair and flush draws though.

[citanul]

hero was first to act and check. it would be hard to bet after everyone checks, acting from the small blind.

citanul

[EarlCat]

[ QUOTE ]
I may be tight, but what about folding to the initial pot-sized bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this. There's at least a couple maniacs in this pot, and maniacs tend to bet huge with bull$hit and then catch monsters on flops like this. I'd tighten up a whole lot.

[citanul]

i missed the guy with ATs, my bad. him having a T also is clearly very bad for you. i don't think your analysis is very good on the EVs or anything, but meh. the biggest point here is that the "hero checkraises to 600" is a terrible play.

citanul

[citanul]

check fold &gt; bet out &gt; check call &gt; check raise.

citanul

[Dudd]

I guess it's unanimous again, terrible play. Out of curiousity's sake, what do you find wrong with my simple EV analysis?

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
check fold &gt; bet out &gt; check call &gt; check raise.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you summarizing my posts now? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I may be tight, but what about folding to the initial pot-sized bet on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this. There's at least a couple maniacs in this pot, and maniacs tend to bet huge with bull$hit and then catch monsters on flops like this. I'd tighten up a whole lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't like this line of reasoning.

no one has really done anything truly donkey like in this hand except the HERO and possibly the guy who says he had AK.

i don't think that you can classify the other players as "clear maniacs." they got in for 60 chips preflop with small pocket pairs and ATs and AK (maybe). whoopie. that's nothing maniacal about that. they then went nuts on the flop with a set, a set, and the nut flush draw 2 overcards. ain't nothing wrong with that. i don't know why you'd in general "tighten up a lot" if there were a bunch of maniacs at your table. especially if you thought they were maniacs who give away whole stacks post flop in pots where they were in for not many chips preflop. i heart those opponents. but these opponents seem to be the type who do things like get in preflop for not many chips and then be more than willing to go to the felt with a flopped set. that's like, uh, me. so i have to respect that.

citanul

[citanul]

i felt it was a concise summarization of the whole thread /images/graemlins/smile.gif

citanul

[citanul]

well, i mean, that's all assuming you know exactly what their cards are basically. i think you have to assume that both your tens are live and good, and make the call getting odds to be a monster stack and eliminating several players. i think that assuming you'll be 50/50 to double up is not a great assumption either. 350 chips isn't fun, even at lvl 1, and you're going to be 7 handed already, which isn't necessarilly bad for you that much, but it kinda stinks. i'm sure we could just icm the whole thing and make it clearer, but i think that i think that even though the action has been like that, once you get to the end, you can't fold. you have to give the range of hands that all the players could have to be at least AA, KK, QQ, 88, 55, 44, Axs. I don't think you can justify a fold if you do that. meh, but i could be wrong.

citanul

[Dudd]

You think they would have AA/KK/QQ? Maybe the original raiser, but they would have had to go for a limp reraise with them, then failed to raise into a multiway pot. An overpair to mine is one of the last hands I'd put them on. Two sets and someone with a draw to the nut flush, that's much more likely, IMO. This is all secondary to the main mistake in the hand of course, but at least I think it's interesting.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
any line that includes raising to 600 and then folding on the flop when you start the hand with 1000 chips is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

[EarlCat]

[ QUOTE ]
no one has really done anything truly donkey like in this hand except the HERO and possibly the guy who says he had AK.

i don't think that you can classify the other players as "clear maniacs." they got in for 60 chips preflop with small pocket pairs and ATs and AK (maybe). whoopie. that's nothing maniacal about that.


[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop you don't know thier cards. It's usually safe to assume when five people call a pot-sized bet, somone is making a bad move--with say a 48os. I don't like to throw chips at these people until I know I have them beat.

I'm gonna guess MP2's hand was crappy from the start and the alleged AK should have had more to be worried about with 5 others in the hand when he bet. Perhaps he was betting the flop to scare people out, but chances are he's beaten by any caller--and with five players sitting there, there's a good chance one will call. My definition of maniac is probably a bit liberal, but I'd venture to call that a couple of maniacs. I'm also not sure if I'd call a pot-sized bet + another caller (or two!) pf with 44 or 55. One or both of them could be classified as mildly disturbed.

Either way, I reach the same conclusion: check/fold

[curtains]

btw I fold to the 250 flop bet there. Too many bad things can happen, the raiser says he has TT beat by his actions, and even if he's full of it, one of the many other players in the hand could simply be checking their big hand to the raiser.