Negreanu K2 vs Williams 99 hand... logical read by Negreanu?

[That guy]

Negreanu made an interesting call on the river in a heads-up hand vs DW at Borgata. DN looked really dumb on that one but he seemed convinced DW had 78. Let's try to get inside the head of Negreanu and figure out why...

Negreanu appears to have a slight chip lead but its close (each with ~$3mm)

Blinds 30k/60k with $10k antes

DN calls on the button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
DW checks in the BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gif

Pot $140K

Flop 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif

Both Check

Turn: 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif

DW checks
Negreanu bets $60k (~40% of the pot)
DW raises another $200k (pot-size raise)
Negreanu calls $140k

Pot: $540k
River: 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

DW bets $500k (~pot size)
Negreanu thinks and calls

-------------

It became pretty clear that Negreanu put DW squarely on 78

The check-raise on 4th street was the key bet. He just didn't believe DW would check-raise a 9... When Daniel calls the check-raise, he is trying to tell DW that he has something. Then DW bets $500k -- essentially ignoring Daniel showing strength by calling the check-raise. Now DN seems convinced that DW is bluffing. It seems like too big of a bet for a 9. What if Daniel had a bigger 9?

After thinking about this hand a bit, it seems like a more logical read by DN to say that DW is bluffing. DN's payoff would have looked like genius if it had worked. But how can DN be so sure on 78? I guess DW could have check-raised with a big spade too as a semi-bluff. But even a naked ace of spades beats DN.

What about A9? Couldn't DW have check-raised the turn with A9 or K9 or would he have just bet it to avoid letting Daniel get a free card?

What else does Daniel beat? Or was this just a bonehead call by DN?

[legend42]

I don't think Daniel narrowed him only to 87. After the flop (which was drawy for a limper/blind hand) went check-check, and then Daniel's small turn bet, Williams's CR could have meant anything- he had made several stone cold bluff moves preflop and postflop headsup with nothing.

The one thing both players knew from the action was that neither had a 6 (unless it was 63 or 96).

When Daniel flat-calls the turn raise, he might have a 9 or a big spade draw. So when the third 6 hits the river, and David bets big, it looks like he might be trying to push Daniel off ace-high. With just a 9, he'd probably value bet less to try to get a call from ace-high or a 3. A lot of other hands he'd check-call with (and a flush might throw out a small blocking bet).

So by betting the pot, he confused Daniel. Although it's hard to say if Williams was on the "next level", or simply betting big with what he figured to be the best hand, hoping Daniel might have the other 9.

[Frank Zappy]

DN even wondered aloud if DW had a 9 in his hand. If DN would have just wandered a little further down that road he might have well put DW on slowplaying 99.

DN was spot on the whole time. On two separate hands he "invested" a total of about $600,000 just to see what DW was playing; this investment payed off quite well.

It also helped that DN was dealt AA twice within 10 minutes, but I think calling him a "bonehead" is completely out of line; but that's what happens when you approach Hold 'em as if it were an accounting problem, you miss the human element and the entire essence of the game.

[Autocratic]

I didn't like the call. DN didn't benefit from the information that much - if he had contemplated 99 I think it would have made sense. He benefited primarily from the KK hand and those aces, not that he didn't play great poker.

[reubenf]

In this and another thread it seems to me many people believe everything DN says at the table, and also believe that is all there is to his thought process.

Trusting poker players to tell the truth at a poker table seems absurd. Trusting that they're telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth is completely asinine.

When DN starts chatting, I'm sure he's trying to ellicit information for this hand, trying to somewhat disguise the reasons for his actions, and trying to confuse his opponent for later hands. I'd be really surprised to find out he's just having a good chat and exposing his thought process to the his opponent.