OK- 1, 2, 3 Capitulate!

[PokerBabe(aka)]

We have tested the lows from July and are now in the final bottoming phase of this market from Hell. /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif I suspect that we will see the yearly lows over the next 2 weeks (either into or following options ex on the 18th). Support levels have meant nothing thus far, so I will spare the boring details. However, my prediciton is a FINAL yearly corrective low approaching 750(ish) on the S&P500. It is my humble opinion that we are setting up for a tremendous buying opportunity and that one should simply "buy LOW" on further weakness. /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif LGTG (look good, trade good). Babe

[Mark Heide]

PokerBabe,

There was talk on the trading floor today that if the DOW closed below 7500 today, we could see a sell off down to 6900 on Monday. Well, it came close. Futhremore, Michael Burke who does the Bull/Bear index said it is currently 50/50 indicating to him that in order for a bottom to be established there should be more bear than bull. I suggest to make your list of undervalued stocks and buy them when this bottom is established. Forget about growth stocks like technology and telecom, because they are staying at the bottom for some time.

Good Luck

Mark

[PokerBabe(aka)]

YUP, I agree that tech is a LONGGGGG term play here. /forums/images/icons/ooo.gif Babe is buying GE, JPM, GPS, F and DAL (Yes, Delta). Holding my AMAT, QCOM and AXP and may actually buy some IBM /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif . Talk to me in 5 years- maybe by then I will have finally become a million dollar Babe. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif LGTG

[adios]

I have no clue short term. Intermediate term up, long term up. Many folks are overly negative on the economy. The USA economy has been performing well for a long time. Many businesses are too cheap stock price wise. To me the game is how low will they go. IMO there exists a major bubble in the treasury market from the middle of the yield curve on out.

[PokerBabe(aka)]

Hey Tom- yes, I agree that the bond market is precisely the wrong place to be right now. /forums/images/icons/ooo.gif I am seeing so many ads on TV about "diversification" and "safe investing" and how everyone is now "risk averse". I am now "risk seeking" /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif NO BONDS for the Babe! As to "how low" they go....certainly not even Greenspan or God knows. Jimmy Rogers once said something like: " I just wait till there is something lying in the corner waiting to get picked up." He also said "just about every time you go against PANIC, you will be right if you can stick it out". I think his message should be heeded now. LGPG and Buy Low....Babe

[Mark Heide]

PokerBabe,

I don't like your choices. I would not buy any of them unless the prices dramatically drop. The Gap I see as a loser along with JPM and F. IBM will need to drop to 46 or lower for me to consider it, QCOM needs to drop down to 28, and AXP 13. I don't think you will like your decision in the next year let alone five.

Here's my picks when the smoke clears: PPD, WHI, RDN, FBP, HRB, MNTR, GVA, FELE, ETH, ADP, HRL, BMS, BK, and SYI. These all have resonable P/E's and are undervalued. If the volitility were not so great, I'd buy them now. If you can find anything wrong with my picks, let me know and I'll do further research.

Let's all get rich. Don't buy stocks just because they have popular names. The players that follow the trends usually end up holding the bag.

Good Luck

Mark
/forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[Wildbill]

I think it won't be the undervalued stocks that get the biggest runup, at least medium term. The market will go up because leaders will lead it up and then the undervalued stocks will slowly bring up the pack. For a 5 year window that might be fine, but I think growth is about to run ahead of value for a little bit if this expected bull does emerge. I don't see value being the correct play if you are looking for a nice run though, people are going to get worked up into a frenzy and start buying the stories and names they know.

Babe's list isn't bad. I think the key to it isn't so much looking at the numbers behind the names she chose, but more about the fact that they are all leaders of sectors that should, or make that, have to do well for a bull run to really go. Semi's have to rebound to build a good base for the bull run and AMAT looks well set there, might be the best bet out there if you are playing for a big rally. Ford and Gap are excellent plays for the consumer rally that would be anticipated if the market goes up quickly. QCOM is a bit iffy, I don't see telecom rallying either so I am with you on that one. AXP...the jury is out on that one. I don't know if that is a stock really in need of a rally or if its just a fundamental basket case with a lack of confidence. Their core business is so forgotten now, they are one of these companies always trying to get a new edge that finds it keeps falling back on its old business. Think of AT&T and how good ole long distance and corporate networks keep paying the bills while they go off dallying in cable and broadband to the point of almost going under. JPM has a lot of issues to deal with, seems more of a bet on its clean resolution although a bull market certainly helps. Airlines like DAL I would just as soon avoid because this is much a telecom like situation with far too much capacity chasing customers that all want a bargain. Only way airlines recover is to cut a lot of people and costs and the unions won't let it happen. The obvious alternative is a buyout or going under scenario, neither of which would be positive for any airline stocks until the Street saw that it was going to be a multiple event item with more than one or two going under or being bought.

If I had to pick a sector, I would say go with online brokers. The new world order of trading favors them greatly because all these big boys that were supposed to get online and eat their lunch just didn't materialize and now are gunshy about being competitive. Online trading is reality, trust in brokers has gone down the tubes and people are far more comfortable doing "private" things like that online than they were not so long ago. They are nicely consolidating and that might be the push to make companies like E-Trade and Ameritrade great niche plays in a business that clearly would benefit from the bull and its increase in daily volumes that would quickly follow.

[PokerBabe(aka)]

Hi Mark- AXP (am. express) at 13? WOW- If it goes to 13, I would mortgage my house to buy it. /forums/images/icons/confused.gif Are you looking at the same stock I am? And IBM at 46? Ditto. I see you do like a few Bank stocks, but not JPM. How about C? Are you concerned about "bad loans" and Enron hangover? Don't you think this is already "priced in" to the stocks? /forums/images/icons/confused.gif ETH may be "stylish", but if retailers like GPS don't perform, neither will ETH, right? Jeans must be bought- I'm not sure about furniture /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif One retailer I forgot is TGT . Target is cool /forums/images/icons/cool.gif HRB is interesting. See ya in 5 years. Hopefully, we have made (back) our fortunes by then. Remember, when you are setting your "entry" points not to be a "nit". If the rally DOES resume into the end of the year, you don't want to miss it because of 2-5 points./forums/images/icons/crazy.gif BUY LOW and Good Trading. Babe

[PokerBabe(aka)]

Hi WildBill- I do like ETRADE. Buy Low /forums/images/icons/ooo.gif

[Mark Heide]

PokerBabe,

Read my newest post about why I don't like IBM or GE. Tell me what you think. I hope you make some money with your picks.

Good Luck

Mark