Play it like a man, or go for an overcall?

[jason_t]

Reads: LAGgy table, but MP2 is new to the table.

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: I am on the button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, SB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, I call, MP1 calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, I call, MP1 calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

[chief444]

The turn call I think is good. But I'm raising the river.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn call I think is good. But I'm raising the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If 3-bet?

[Frequitude]

I think this is definitely a river-raise. Getting that overcall will net you the same as the bettor calling your raise, but the "overcaller" might also call 2 cold. Raising seems almost like a freeroll for more bets (of course, unless the bettor is bluffing or the 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif is out, but I think both are unlikely)

If 3-bet, I cap. The villain could very well have the K /images/graemlins/club.gif, and figured you would have been a little more active on the turn with the A /images/graemlins/club.gif. HU I've seen some posts on here where the vets said they would go something like 6 or 7 bets here before calling.

Thoughts on the cap? If it were heads up, how many bets would people here go?

[chief444]

If 3-bet I'd call.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn call I think is good.

[/ QUOTE ]


Why not raise here?

[JoshuaD]

I like an overcall. You've got the 2rd nut flush, and there's the possibility of the FH. It looks like the guy behind you will call down, and I don't think you'll get 3-bet (getting more money in the pot) unless you're beat.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is definitely a river-raise. Getting that overcall will net you the same as the bettor calling your raise, but the "overcaller" might also call 2 cold. Raising seems almost like a freeroll for more bets (of course, unless the bettor is bluffing or the 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif is out, but I think both are unlikely)

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point.

[Fat Nicky]

I like the overcall on the turn, but you gotta raise the river.

[chief444]

Because if you're good on the turn you're almost always good on the river and I don't really want the opponents folding. They're more likely to call a raise on the river.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd lose someone who is likely drawing dead.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why not raise here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd lose someone who is likely drawing dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see it now your only getting 3bb out of SB on the turn and river if your hand is best so might as well wait until the river to raise and get the overcall on the turn. I guess my first thoughts were MP was more likely to call two cold on the turn than the river but after reading the replies and thinking about it more the turn call is the way to go.

[sfer]

I think this is a key difference between live and online. Live players fear the 4-flush like the plague. Online you're always perceived as FOS. And, to quote bdk3clash, "Going for overcalls in online poker is teh suck."

Me likey river raise.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
Live players fear the 4-flush like the plague. Online you're always perceived as FOS. And, to quote bdk3clash, "Going for overcalls in online poker is teh suck."

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this mean you don't believe in clarky's theorem?

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn call I think is good. But I'm raising the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even with a possible boat and a possible straight flush?

[BigEndian]

Every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

- Jim

[Schizo]

That's what I though., But for some silly reason I had to ask anyway.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
If 3-bet, I cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against the typical player at LL party, who:

a) sees monsters in the closest
and
b)isn't likely to say "he didn't raise the turn, therefore he doesn't have Ac".. simply because they don't tend to think about other's cards

I think capping with the one card second nut flush with a paired board is spewing.

BUT, I do agree with your logic. And, I like it against good opposition.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

Me likey river raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do if 3-bet?

[jason_t]

Check out CDC's eerily quite different albeit eerily similar hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1955839&amp;page=1&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1).

[sfer]

Not at all. Online, if they think you're FOS, they call with worse hands more. Live, since they are crapping their pants, they fold more.

[sfer]

Cap, like always. Especially if the 3rd guy donks along.

[ErrantNight]

the likelihood of there being a boat here is virtually nil. only the 4 of crubs is really scary. i'm not willing to give credit for the 4 of crubs, even if 3-bet on the river. i think the fact that we didn't raise the turn means a newly acquired set, and many lower flushes (K, Q, J high... perhaps even T high... ok, maybe that's not "many") will 3-bet this.

but that said... i think the likelihood of you being 3-bet here is virtually nil.

and i raise because i'm not confident i'll get overcalled again.

[ErrantNight]

what's this obsession with the 3-bet?

in the unlikely circumstance that you're 3-bet you're STILL probably ahead and can cap with ease. if/when this happens and you puss out and just call and find out you should have capped... well, all you cost yourself was one bet. worst that happens is you get 3-bet, call, lose, and convince yourself that raising was wrong. that would be bad thinking.

what you should be concentrating on here is earning two more bb's on the river. you're far more likely to get the turn and river bettor to call one more when you raise then you are to get some donk behind you to overcall.

PLUS you could get lucky and get 3-bet... PLUS you could get ridiculously lucky and get the donk behind you to coldcall. all sorts of nice things can happen when you raise.

if someone lucked into a straight frush, or played their flopped set poorly... them's the breaks. but you're leaving money on the table here a lot by going for overcalls on the river.

to quote sfer quoting bdk...

going for overcalls on the river is teh suck

[ErrantNight]

your hand-reading needs work if you're really fearing these.

we could open up discussion about them IF hero raised on the river and was 3-bet... but even then the consensus would be: cap, because it's just not that likely.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
what's this obsession with the 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I did not raise the river because I didn't know if I should call or cap if 3-bet. I wanted to hear more votes/justifications for capping a 3-bet. I'm now convinced that I should have raised and capped if 3-bet.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

Even with a possible boat and a possible straight flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

A boat is possible, but almost surely not here.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
your hand-reading needs work if you're really fearing these.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, I asked a silly question. Maybe I ask too many silly questions, but sometimes I like to double check random silly questions that pop in my head. On more than one occasion I've recieved an unexpected answer from silly questions so I don't feel bad about doing it. As for the read, I can easily see sailboats here.

Jokerswild has made numerous post about 2nd nut hands that are very interesting to read.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Even with a possible boat and a possible straight flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

A boat is possible, but almost surely not here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, I thought MP2 bet on the flop when I made that post.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
the likelihood of there being a boat here is virtually nil. only the 4 of crubs is really scary.

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

But, if you are MP2, and hero raises you on the river, 55 is not an unreasonable hand. Loose PFR, but raise the flop, just call when the club hits, pump the boat, right?
I'm not saying, I play it like that, but its not unreasonable.

My point is: the fact that there is also a pair out there makes it even more unlikely that a regular 2/4 player is going to 3-bet the third nut one card flush.

[ErrantNight]

my point was that the chances of him being 3-bet are virtually nonexistent.