Was my reasoning correct ?

[FTK]

5$ party poker MTT tournament. 40 out of 1500 players left.
Blinds are 1000/2000. My stack is 18.000.
Table is tighter than I usually see at this stage in a tournament.

I'm in middle position with AQ and raise to 6000.
The big blind (also about 18.000 chips) calls.

Flop is 3 low cards. No obvious straight/flush draws.
I go all-in. BB calls and wins the pot with AK.

I could just ask the standard question : was this play correct.
But I wanted to go 1 step further. I will try to explain WHY I played it
like this. What I would like to know from the more experienced players
here is : was my reasoning correct (the actual result itself is not so
important here).

1. reasoning pre-flop :

Folding is out of the question.
All-in would be to much for AQ giving my stacksize. I would
only be called by hands that dominate me (AK, AA, KK) or
pocket pairs that would make the outcome a coinflip.
Betting 3 times the BB will give me a resonable folding
equity, keeps limpers away and makes sure the blinds don’t
get a free change to outdraw me. Also it leaves me enough chips
to make 1 or 2 reasonable sized post-flop bets if needed.

My conclusion : 3 x BB (1/3 of my stack) is the proper preflop bet.

2. reasoning post-flop :

The BB called a decent bet and therefore has something.
I have not enough information yet to know what he actually holds,
so have to take into account several possibilities :

2.1 He is slowplaying a monster (AA, KK, QQ).

Unlikely scenario. He would have put me all-in pre-flop (at
least that is what I would have done in his position).
If I check or make a small bet he will put me all-in.
If I go all-in first he will call.
Conclusion : If he holds a monster then I will loose. So be it,
there is always another tournament tomorrow.

2.2 He has a low/medium pocket pair.

This flop is good for him. The only way I'm going to win this
pot now is betting into him and make him believe I have a
higher PP or made a set.
Making a small bet wont do this. Only an all-in could possibly
take it down right there. Even if he doesn’t lay it down I still have
the 2 overcards so I might get lucky.

conclusion : all-in is best option, but I might get broke on the hand.

2.3 He has AK

This flop is no good for him. He has no clue what I hold. I could have made
my preflop bet with a monster, low pocket pair or total crap.
It is clear that the only way I'm going to win this hand is by making him to
lay down his.

I have 3 possible strategies now:

2.3.1 Check.

Don’t know what that would achieve. Assuming that he has AK he
could check, raise or go all-in. In all cases I just loose initiative
without changing anything.
Conclusion : checking is no option (it is the same like folding right now).

2.3.2 Make a medium sized bet (6.000 for example into the 12.000 pot).

I pretent I have a pocket pair or a monster.
There is a possibility he will lay down the hand right there. If the turn is
another low card I can repeat the bet and he has another change to lay it
down (although the pot odds would probably be to good to lay down AK).
Conclusion : medium sized bet could work here.

2.3.3 Go all-in.

I pretent I have a pocket pair or a monster.
There is a bigger change he will lay down the hand right there. But if
he calls I'm toast.
Conclusion : All-in bet has the biggest possiblity he will lay down but
also give me the worst possibilities to win if he calls. .

2.4 He holds something else I have dominated (AJ, KQ, etc.)

This flop is no good for him. Unless he is very lucky he will loose.
If I check now or make a small bet I will give him odds to draw but it is
unlikely he will win. A small bet may cause him to fold (good for me) or
stay in the hand (bigger pot for me).
If I go all-in now he has to fold or go broke.
Conclusion : If he has the AJ-type of hand, going all-in now is the best option
for me.



Given the above possible types of hands the BB can hold, my conclusion was that going all-in would have the best overall effect in the most likely scenario's.

The decision was also based on the fact that we both had only 12.000 chips left.
If we both would have had 50.000 chips I would probably have maded a potsized bet post-flop and fold if I get re-raised.

Is the above all reasonable or do I make some fundamental mistakes here ?

[sloth469]

[ QUOTE ]


1. reasoning pre-flop :

Folding is out of the question.
All-in would be to much for AQ giving my stacksize. I would only be called by hands that dominate me (AK, AA, KK) or pocket pairs that would make the outcome a coinflip. Betting 3 times the BB will give me a resonable folding equity, keeps limpers away and makes sure the blinds don’t get a free change to outdraw me. Also it leaves me enough chips to make 1 or 2 reasonable sized post-flop bets if needed.

My conclusion : 3 x BB (1/3 of my stack) is the proper preflop bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't hate your line, but your reasoning may be faulty. I think it comes down to the question: What do you do if the vilian comes over the top here?

If you are going to call his all-in, do you see that you lose the folding equity you may have had if you had open pushed with the same result as when he calls you?

If you are going to fold post flop, you just lost 1/3 of your stack: is that ok with you?

I think w/ less than 10 BBs here I open push or if I take your line I push any flop and go broke, so be it. You only fear 4 hands and at this stage of the tourney at the $5 level vilian is just as likely to call w/ ATs or even AJo as he is AK. You can't live in fear of monsters in the closet, and in order to live...

-sloth

[Soul Daddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Also it leaves me enough chips to make 1 or 2 reasonable sized post-flop bets if needed.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know where you are coming from with this logic. What are these reasonable sized post-flop bets you think you'll be able to make? 1/2 pot would leave you with 3 BB.

This is why you have to push pf in these < 10 BB situations. Once villain calls pf, you have very little options or FE post flop. Are you getting called and beat by AK if you push? Yeah, probably, but that's being results oriented. There's a very good chance you'll pick up the blinds and move on. When the blinds represent 1/6 of your stack, that's an excellent result.

[schifty]

the others have said it. Preflop pushing is best, exactly why you feel weird after the flop. He's gonna call here with any reasonable hand and you let a lot more hands in with your preflop bet than you could have. When you make your preflop bet, you are essentially giving everyone who calls the 6 another implied twelve. This is when calling with some marginal hands may be plausible because they know you can't really get out of the hand.
That being said, a stop and go isn't really out of the question. That means, after you make your preflop raise you will auto push the flop. For me, once I see the cards preflop with less than 12 BB, I know my stack is going in the middle. The question is whether the texture of the table will make it most profitable for me to push preflop or postflop. Generally, a hand like aj-ak here is a push for me preflop because you have the most equity against a small pair (not that it matters much if you autopush the flop). The ideal situation for the stop and go is when you hold a hand like 55-77. Say someone calls your preflop bet with a slightly better pocket pair. If the flop comes down with three over cards and you push, their pair is looking quite feeble. You give your hand more equity when you were dominated preflop. However, I tend to only pull this menouver when I have a small-medium pocket pair. I think the correct play here is to go ahead and shove you 9BB stack preflop.