Another typical hand:

[curtains]

***** Hand History for Game 1753233665 *****
200/400 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 10490205) - FRI MAR 18 04:53:02 EST 2005
Table Table 14452 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: syjohnse (2720)
Seat 6: jamesblond (2820)
Seat 7: buzzamillion (3580)
Seat 9: curtainz (880)
curtainz posts small blind (100)
syjohnse posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to curtainz [ 7h, 2h ]
jamesblond folds.
buzzamillion folds.
your turn -

[Nick B.]

fold, the only time that I would push with this is if me and bb have around 3xbb each, with two big stacks, and I can't let him get the free blinds.

[superbrawl]

I know this is one of those trick questions..lol. But i will answer it honestly.

I guess you have a little bit of FE....as BB is currently in third he may be more prone to lay down his T6o.

With that said I will hold my 780 chips and push on the button where I can win both set's of blinds with marginally less FE but certainly better cards.

I

[curtains]

What % of the time do you think youll be called if you move allin here?

[curtains]

btw I post this because I've been using eastbay's new sit and go program.

Basically if the BB will call only 45% of his hands here, than moving allin with 72s is +EV. I think the breakeven point was around 47-48%. If this is the case, this seems like a push to me, as I don't think I expect to be called quite that much, and I don't think I can pass up any +ev spots when I'm this short on chips.

Now of course I'm relying completely on this program's analysis here for these calculations, something I'm wary of doing.

Anyway I did move allin and got called by A5o, and was unable to win.

[curtains]

This is interesting because I used to nearly always push in such situations and recently decided that I was crazy and calmed down a bit. However eastbay's program is telling me that I was correct in the past...does anyone see any major flaw here?

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
btw I post this because I've been using eastbay's new sit and go program.


[/ QUOTE ]
cool, when can i get one?

[ QUOTE ]
Basically if the BB will call only 45% of his hands here, than moving allin with 72s is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean +$EV right? Even still I think unless your advantage is fairly large +$EV I would pass (and I don't think it is), as this is probable a close situation. The three other stacks are all fairly close, this is the bubble and none of them can afford to bully to any extreme. You may even be fortunate enough to get a walkover on your next big blind with the chip stacks the way they are, not to mention that your opponents could also make the error of getting into a big pot that you can profit from watching.

I know you know all of this, my main point is just that in bubble situations where you are the first raiser in people should not forget about non-icm factors that can make pushing small $EV edges less profitable then folding.

[kamrann]

It depends on your read of the BB, but most players will fold often enough in his situation to make lumping it all in the right move for you I think. Also, waiting for a 'better' hand on your button doesn't seem that worthwhile. The deuce is actually not a bad card since it makes it considerably less likely you'll be dominated if called. The BB may not fold T9 but he'll almost certainly fold T2.

However, this isn't always the case. If ZeeJustin is in the BB, fold. My friend pushed in his last remaining chips at the EPT event in Deauville with 52o. Apparently ZJ had a big dwell on the BB before calling and flipping up 72. It takes some player to get his chips in with 72 and be dominating. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[eastbay]

I like the push here. One poster said he prefers to wait for the next hand which is probably better. I think this is a little misguided for the following reasons.

#1 - It doesn't matter much what your hand is if BB is going to call with a fairly predictable range of K high or even Q high or better hands. 72s is almost indistinguishable from many other hands which might seem better, but when you stack them up against the expected showdown range, it's only marginally worse.

#2 - You are trading the opportunity for pushing against the probability of one guy having picked up a calling hand behind you and two guys having picked up a calling hand behind you. This is a BIG difference because what you really want is no call, and most of the time this more than compensates for the difference between what you pick up in your holdings.

I like the push, and stand by the analysis.

eastbay

[poboys]

#2 is a very, very solid point.

Here, I push with any two.. BB is going to play even tighter than normal, since he'd put a ~25% of his stack at risk, and, if he lost would be short stacked against the other two bigger stacks. And, b) gives you a chance to double-up and get virtually even with him.

I think you'd get called here at MOST 25% of the time.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you'd get called here at MOST 25% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty optimistic. I was thinking something more like 60%.

[rybones]

Curtains,

I just purchased the sng-analyzer and I plan to use it tonight. Do you use it while you are playing? if so have you found it easy enough to enter info and play the hand b4 being timed out? Is it difficult to use while multi-tabling? or do you just use it for analysis afterwards?

Ryan

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you'd get called here at MOST 25% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty optimistic. I was thinking something more like 60%.

[/ QUOTE ]

chop those two...42%...yeah..i like that

[curtains]

I can't really use it while playing, but it basically always wants me pushing in the SB, so I understand that it would say this play was +EV. I felt I have enough chips for him to call with well under 50% of hands.

However I'm sure there are players that would call with a larger range.

[curtains]

Note also that if the SB is very loose and will call with lots of hands, Im going to be in trouble the next two hands as well. It's unlikely I'll come across another +ev situation if the BB is going to call with many assorted hands.

[EarlCat]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess you have a little bit of FE....as BB is currently in third he may be more prone to lay down his T6o.

With that said I will hold my 780 chips and push on the button where I can win both set's of blinds with marginally less FE but certainly better cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could really go either way, but I think I like the push. Waiting until the button just reeks of a position raise, and I think you would be more likely to be called.