2500 Limit .5/1 O8 Hands, bad luck?

[GooperMC]

I was just pointed to this forum so I thought I would ask a question that has been bothering me for a little while: am I just on a bad run of cards? Here are my PTO numbers

Hands: 2,647
VP$IP: 20.28
VP$SB: 37.10
W$SF: 19.63
BB/100: -.68
WTSD: 27.82
W$SD: 66.34

Aggression
PF: .27
F: .66
T: 1.26
R: 1.58

I have been data mining .5/1 hands and it seems like W$SF of 19.63% is VERY low. The average that I am seeing from about 40K data mined hands is around 25% which is about what some users here have already posted.

I am happy with my numbers aside from the W$SF and BB/100. Anyone see anything that I am missing or have a better explanation then a bad run of cards? The only other explanation I could think of is that I am making bad decisions post flop and not showing down enough hands but the W$SD doesn’t reflect that.

I realize that 2500 hands a sample does not make, but these are my first ever limit O8 hands so I am a little nervous about losing money.

Comments, criticism, and opinions welcome.

[arcticfire]

2,600 hands isn't really enough to make a judgement call. Just by your stats it seems to me at least your see'ing to many flops with hands you can't take to the SD. If thats just bad luck in missing a higher % of flops then usual or your picking to many marginal hands (like in the SB) I can't tell you.

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
Just by your stats it seems to me at least your see'ing to many flops with hands you can't take to the SD

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you think that a VP$IP of 20 it too high or are you saying that I am just picking the wrong 20% to play? Sorry I am a little confused.

[ QUOTE ]
missing a higher % of flops then usual or your picking to many marginal hands (like in the SB)

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I haven't looked in detail at my VP$SB I was assuming that 40 was around correct (about double my VP$IP). I will check my data base.

[djr]

I'll give some contrast

Hands: 1800
VP$IP: 24
VP$SB: 67
W$SF: 28
BB/100: +0.28
WTSD: 40
W$SD: 60
PFR: 5

Aggression
F: 2
T: 1.9
R: 1.1

total PFA: 1.73

when folds:
preflop 66
flop 10
turn 5
river 3

Now, I'm the first to admit that my VPIP and VPSB are WAY TOO HIGH, I was dinking around with playing weaker hands A3xx, 23xx, etc. and nearly anything from SB to see how bad that play really is at loose/passive games. But you can see that I'm still pulling in cash whereas you're losing. Why? Luck. Maybe I'm better postflop than you?

Your wtsd seems a bit low to me, so you very well may be folding when you have outs to call. Or you're just not hitting the flop that much. Are you folding predominantly on the flop or river? My opinion is you should be folding more flops than turns/rivers. If you're folding a lot of flops you're just not hitting them. If you're folding more rivers, you might be chasing too much.

Also, either your flop aggressive is too low, or mine is too high. But with sample sizes as small as these, it's really hard to say anything definitive.

[Mano]

The one thing that kind of jumps out at me is that your flop aggression is very low. There are times when a flop raise to knock out some draws and limit the field are critical.

[GooperMC]

Thanks for all the advice.

djr, Here are my fold numbers:
Pre-Flop: 70
Flop: 10.96
Turn: 4.5
River: 2.1

I agree with all of you that my flop aggression needs to come up but I am average compared to the other players in my database.

Here are the averages for all players in my database that have played more then 100 hands and are making money:
Amt Plrs: 338
VP$IP: 40.0
Hands: 196
BB/100: 6.9
VP$SB: 71.6
W$SF: 25.2
WTSD: 41.6
W$SD: 63.2
FAgg: .7
TAgg: .9
RAgg: 1.3

I am worried that I have a large leak in my game that is causing me to be a losing player and I can't find it. I think that my flop aggression is a small leak but it is not costing me 7 BB / 100.

Mostly I am worried because I don't know how to bring up my W$SF. I only really play hands that draw to the nuts so if I flop the draw and I am getting odds I will stick with it. If I miss I am going to fold. With my current inability to win lots of pots with this strategy coupled with the fact that you can't push people off hands in .5/1 lead me to wonder what I could do to increase my W$SF without making my W$SD plummet.

[arcticfire]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just by your stats it seems to me at least your see'ing to many flops with hands you can't take to the SD

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you think that a VP$IP of 20 it too high or are you saying that I am just picking the wrong 20% to play? Sorry I am a little confused.

[ QUOTE ]
missing a higher % of flops then usual or your picking to many marginal hands (like in the SB)

[/ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I haven't looked in detail at my VP$SB I was assuming that 40 was around correct (about double my VP$IP). I will check my data base.

[/ QUOTE ]

VP$IP of 20% or so isn't to high. It's just about right actually as best I can tell. As to the SB comment thats a personal prefrence. Unlike many here I don't play hands from the SB I wouldn't play from another postion. I take the opinon that especially in low limit loose omaha an -ev expectation hand dosn't suddenly become +ev just because I was forced to caugh up half a BB for it. I just don't treat the SB the same as I do in Texas holdem.

Check your stats , see if the SB you are losing money or making money. Filter out any SB's that you didn't VP$IP and see if the ones you are paying for to see a flop are turning you a profit. If not then the SB is a leak.

If your taking a hit or miss aproach to your post flop play perhaps your best bet is to start raising pre-flop with every hand you plan to play. The old adage if it's good enough to play it's good enough to raise is something you should I feel take to heart when it comes to omaha play.

[GooperMC]

After looking in PT it looks like I am doing OK is the small blind. I have completed 186 times and I am +16 for those 186. That is much better than -46.5 I would have made if I folded.

I have begun to incorporate more flop aggression into my game. Anyone have any other ideas on how to raise my V$SF?