Fold AA preflop here??

[RiverTheNuts]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t3195)
UTG (t3465)
Button (t130)
SB (t1210)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1100</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t1550

EDIT: When to me I push and UTG folds!! Converter screwed up

[ZebraAss]

Sweet mother of God no!

[Degen]

lol

ya dude, thats a good laydown...you flippin donkey

Degen

[wuwei]

No... I would try pushing.

[RiverTheNuts]

The converter screwed up, I actually pushed and gave a little table talk about how I cant fold this one, hoping he would lay whatever he had down, which he did...

But how terrible would it be to fold here?

[iMsoLucky0]

Definite fold. Don't you see how the hero has second place chips all locked up? I mean, the guy on the button is about to be allin for the big blind. I just don't see how you can justify putting it in her with only around an 80% chance of winning.

Good fold man. (Or that sucks that you got sucked out on, should've folded).

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
The converter screwed up, I actually pushed and gave a little table talk about how I cant fold this one, hoping he would lay whatever he had down, which he did...

But how terrible would it be to fold here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Terrible. You should be praying that he calls, not trying to talk him out of it.

[ZebraAss]

SWEET MOTHER OF GOD NO!!! FOR THE LOVE OF GOD DO NOT FOLD THAT HAND.....NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO DONT FOLDDDDDDDDD PLEASE GOD DONT FOLD!!!!(that bad)

-Zebra

10% of the time you lose(if he calls 50% of the time). 90% of the time you win..

SWEET MOTHER OF GOD DO NOT FOLD THAT HAND!!!

[lorinda]

If you were the button, and the blinds would be 400 before it reached you, you could consider it.

Edit: and you had 99 chips or less /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Lori

[RiverTheNuts]

Ok, worked out the EV on this one... I decided that EV to go all in is around 35 dollars... I get called half the time, win 75% ... thats 15 dollars of EV right there. He folds 50% of the time and I still have 2nd locked up, plus first about half the time... 20

Folding here gives me 2nd 40% of the time and 1st 40% of the time... ~$32

Anyway, those are rough numbers, but I gotta push, anyone disagree?

[curtains]

My new method...whenever a post is titled "Fold AA?" I won't read the original thread and just go to the end and say no. I always have some glimmer of hope that it'll be some convoluted scenario where it's reasonable to fold, and it's never even close.

[RiverTheNuts]

[ QUOTE ]

My new method...whenever a post is titled "Fold AA?" I won't read the original thread and just go to the end and say no. I always have some glimmer of hope that it'll be some convoluted scenario where it's reasonable to fold, and it's never even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool story Hansel. Sorry we can't all be as clairvoyant as you, I just wanted to discuss this hand because I think the EV's are somewhat close between pushing and folding

[ZebraAss]

Don't worry everyone is in a pissy mood tonight.

-Bored Zebra.

[curtains]

I don't think the EVs are remotely close between pushing and folding. Not even in the same ballpark. It's almost never right to fold AA, unless the circumstances are extremely unorthodox.

[curtains]

I'm not in a pissy mood, there should simply be a warning not to post hands where you want to fold AA. It's almost never right. 95+% of the time someone posts that they want to fold AA preflop, its ridiculously way off base.

[RiverTheNuts]

You keep saying that but I just did the EV calculation... what errors do you see in it if you think that pushing and folding arent even close?

[Mr_J]

"I get called half the time, win 75%"

Woah no way. Your push says enough for him to only call with premium hands. Vs Ax you win something like 90% of the time. Vs an underpair you win 80%. Any hand he would call with you totally dominate. He will call much less than 50%.

If you win, you also get to rob SB blind which is always fun /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[lorinda]

win 75%

As Ad 1370736 80.05 336724 19.66 4844 0.28 0.802
9c 9h 336724 19.66 1370736 80.05 4844 0.28 0.198
(Note you got the "worst" likely pair and suits)

As Ad 1567203 91.53 123893 7.24 21208 1.24 0.921
Ac Qh 123893 7.24 1567203 91.53 21208 1.24 0.079

As Ad 1406263 82.13 299588 17.50 6453 0.38 0.823
Kh Qh 299588 17.50 1406263 82.13 6453 0.38 0.177

Lori

[iMsoLucky0]

Sometimes its more than just the EV (although I didn't look at your calculations, I don't think the EV is even close.)

[RiverTheNuts]

well thankee, my numbers were off, and someone actually showed why instead of just telling me that I was wrong...

Pushing is correct, and with those numbers, its not that close, thanks all

[curtains]

First of all you will win a lot more than 75% of the time. AA wins 82% against an underpair, and a lot of the time youll be up against Ax which you are about 90-94% against. To make calculations assuming a 75% win rate when in actuality it's about 85% is sloppy to begin with.

Also I'm not so sure you want your opponent to fold. You definitely don't want them to fold if they have something like AK-AT, however thats a different debate entirely.

[raptor517]

curtains, if i ever fold AA in a situation like that, fly down to texas and kick my ass ok? and ill do the same. its nowhere NEAR close. if anyone folds here they should never play poker again.

[Degen]

the fact that he even posted that goes a long way to show why these things are so damned easy to beat, and no matter how many times its said in this forum or elsewhere, they will always remain that way.

this is a VERY extreme example, but there are many people who pass up wonderful opportunities to position themselves for a win, when they are on the bubble. many people commonly fold hands like AJs or 88 on the bubble to an obvious steal-raise because they want that 2X buy-in, and basically do not want to lose their money.

i have several friends who play poker over 20 hours a week, a couple who pay the bills from cash games, and none of them can dominate SNG's like me no matter how many times i show them the playbook...when it comes down to it their 'brain' takes over and they choose not to do what the winning method suggests that they do.

each time i post here, or read a post here that tells people explicitly how to beat these, i cringe a little...then i think of my buddies...it can only be done by fearless people who have a bit of wrecklessness about them...anybody who would ever consider folding a monster pre-flop, on the bubble just to squeeze out 3rd place money has no place trying to beat SNG's...i suggest they move to vegas and find the good limit games at the Bellagio.


Degen

[Mammux]

A good case could be made for pushing 27o in that situation. I was playing an mtt yesterday. We were down to six, and I was second in chips, only slightly behind the chip leader; who was playing aggressively but good. Everyone else had a fourth or less of the chips we had, and he was bullying them around appropriately. I had played tight up to the hand in question.

An EP short stack limped, chip leader raised the EP limper all-in to 7xbb or so, a third of his stack. Folded around to me in the small blind. I had 89s and went all-in. Both folded. I think the chip leader would have trouble calling me with anything less than AA.

-Magnus

[sofere]

You know this forum's motto...

"Play for third, settle for first."

[Scuba Chuck]

PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH, PUSH.

Oh, and one more thing. PUSH!

[GtrHtr]

What Chuck said.

[wh1t3bread]

[ QUOTE ]


Cool story Hansel.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ijustliketoplay]

This forum makes me laugh sometimes. Amidst the welter of excellent advice there's always someone trying to show how impressive they are by thinking up a situation in which folding AA is correct. Do something useful with your life!

Let me add to the consensus here and say this - this would be one of the worst folds in the history of poker. Truly awful at any level. Abysmal. Disgusting. Nauseatingly bad.

You get the picture.

I would be pushing a lot more hands than AA in this situation. A lot more...

[ColdestCall]

If you play Hold Em for the rest of your life, and you NEVER fold AA pre-flop, not even once, it is extremely likely that you will have made a lifetime of correct decisions re: folding AA pre-flop.

Not trying to be a smart-ass, just trying to save you some wasted effort contemplating this question in the future.

[adanthar]

I didn't read the post or the thread but 'no'

[Simplistic]

guys, 4 handed and in the position that he's in, UTG the holy grail of infering a monster, it's obvious that AA is up against suited Jokers. easy fold here everytime.

[CheckFold]

Why does everyone seem to think he has at least 2nd locked up? The blinds are gonna get real big, and 3rd place is one double up away from becoming a major player. In all likelihood, even by picking your spots well you're still going to get the 3rd place guy all in as a 60/40 favorite. I've had my share of 3rds when in the OPs spot. I've had my share of 1sts from the 3rd place guy's spot.