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B-Man
10-04-2002, 05:39 PM
Charles Krauthaumer:

Remember Kennedy?

``This nation is prepared to present its case against the Soviet threat to peace, and our own proposals for a peaceful world, at any time and in any forum--in the Organization of American States, in the United Nations, or in any other meeting that could be useful--(BEG ITAL)without limiting our freedom of action." (Emphasis added.) --President John F. Kennedy, Cuban Missile Crisis, address to the nation, Oct. 22, 1962 ``I'm waiting for the final recommendation of the Security Council before I'm going to say how I'm going to vote.'' --Sen. Edward Kennedy, Iraq crisis, address to the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Sept. 27, 2002 WASHINGTON--How far the Democrats have come. Forty years ago to the month, President Kennedy asserts his willingness to present his case to the United Nations, but also his determination not to allow the U.N. to constrain America's freedom of action. Today, his brother, a leader of the same party, awaits the guidance of the U.N. before he will declare himself on how America should respond to another nation threatening the United States with weapons of mass destruction. Ted Kennedy is not alone. Much of the leadership of the Democratic Party is in the thrall of the United Nations. War and peace hang in the balance. The world waits to see what the American people, in Congress assembled, will say. These Democrats say: Wait, we must find out what the U.N. says first.

The chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Carl Levin, would enshrine such lunacy in legislation, no less. He would not even authorize the use of force without prior U.N. approval. Why? What exactly does U.N. approval mean?

It cannot mean the U.N. General Assembly, which is an empty debating society. It means the Security Council.

Now, the Security Council has five permanent members and 10 rotating members. Among the rotating members is Syria. How can any senator stand up and tell the American people that before deciding whether America goes to war against a rogue state like Iraq, it needs to hear the ``final recommendation'' of Syria, a regime on the State Department's official terrorist list?

Or maybe these senators are awaiting the wisdom of some of the other nonpermanent members. Cameroon? Mauritius? Guinea? Certainly Kennedy and Levin cannot be saying that we must not decide whether to go to war until we have heard the considered opinion of countries that none of their colleagues can find on a map.

OK. So we are not talking about these dots on the map. We must be talking about the five permanent members. The United States is one. Another is Britain, which supports us. That leaves three. So when you hear senators grandly demand the support of the ``international community,'' this is what they mean: France, Russia and China.

As I recently asked in this space, by what logic does the blessing of these countries bestow moral legitimacy on American action? China's leaders are the butchers of Tiananmen Square. France and Russia will decide the Iraq question based on the coldest calculation of their own national interest, meaning money and oil.

Every senator says he wants a new and tough inspection regime in Iraq: anytime, anywhere, unannounced. Yet these three countries, whose approval the Democrats crave, are responsible for the hopelessly diluted and useless inspection regime that now exists. They spent the 1990s doing everything they could to dismantle the Gulf War mandate to disarm Saddam. The Clinton administration helplessly acquiesced, finally approving a new Security Council resolution in 1999 that gave us the current toothless UNMOVIC. France, Russia and China, mind you, refused to support even that resolution; they all abstained because it did not make yet more concessions to Saddam.

After a decade of acting as Saddam's lawyers on the Security Council, these countries are now to be the arbiters of America's new and deadly serious effort to ensure Iraqi disarmament.

So insist leading Democrats. Why? It has no moral logic. It has no strategic logic. Forty years ago, we had a Democratic president who declared that he would not allow the United Nations or any others to tell the United States how it would defend itself. Would that JFK's party had an ounce of his confidence in the wisdom and judgment of America, deciding its own fate regardless of the wishes of France. Or Cameroon.
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B-Man:

I anticipate the liberals and the doves reading this will respond to this by saying there is no comparison between the threat of nukes in Cuba circa 1960 and the threat of nukes/chemical/bio weapons in Iraq today, but I think the risk today is just as high if not higher. Today, a terrorist could smuggle a WMD into our country without breaking a sweat. The only way to eliminate this threat is to stop the terrorist from gaining the WMD in the first place. You do that by preventing regimes which support terrorism from gaining these weapons.

HDPM
10-04-2002, 06:34 PM
Risk from outside is much greater today. The Soviets were more predictable and rational. Kennedy's performance in the whole thing was risky. He was crazy enough, immature enough, and lacking in morals enough that Nikita backed down. The Sovs knew more about Kennedy than most people today rest assured.

andyfox
10-04-2002, 11:11 PM
The President needs to make a better case than he has thus far that our security is being imminently threatened by Iraq. I anxiously await his speech Monday night. One hopes that he presents evidence that Saddam has been preparing weapons for a long time, rather than just recently, because recent preparation could be said to be a response to our threat of war which has been ongoing for some time now.

All of the presidents in my lifetime have routinely lied when matters of war and peace came into play; certainly, as HDPM points out, Kennedy was second to none in this regard. Let's hope our current president tells us the truth.

andyfox
10-04-2002, 11:20 PM
Do you think the Soviets felt Kennedy was crazy? Immature, certainly; immoral, probably. Crazy?

The Soviets may indeed have been more predictable and rational than today's tyrants, but we always conducted our foreign policy as if we felt they were unpredictable and irrational, "animated by a new fanatic faith" [NSC68].

If you are correct, and the risk is greater today, it would lead to the interesting conclusion that the liberals in those days, who led us into the Cold War after World War II, and were responsible for our greatest disaster (in Vietnam), overestimated the dangers in those days, yet are underestimating the dangers today.

HDPM
10-05-2002, 12:14 AM
I don't think we conducted our policy as if they were irrational.. Sure, there were some things we didn't understand and labeled irrational, but our whole strategy was based on predictable responses. That is not to say our strategy was that of the publically articulated MAD theory, but MAD was a good way to label the first strike stalemate that developed. And Saddam is somewhat rational. He did not use WMD's in the Gulf War on Israel, knowing it would lead to the total destruction of Iraq. His latest response to the UN was rational. I mean, the guy has US Senators kissing his ass now. However, the threat is greater now because Saddam is still nutty and he supports people nuttier than he is. There is no doubt that Saddam backed Al Quaeda, no matter what Bonior or his pals say. And Al Quaeda people have nothing to lose. Their views are essentially alien and they cannot be reasoned with.
As far as Kennedy goes, I didn't use crazy in a very technical sense, but he was a loose cannon and probably on amphetamines. Bad guy to control a nuclear arsenal.

10-06-2002, 08:59 PM
What I don't understand is why so many seem to be looking for 100% solid evidence (read "PROOF") that Saddam has done and is doing this. I'd say a 90% degree of certainty should be much more than sufficient, given the dangers posed and the history of Saddam, and in my estimation it is far more than 90% certain that Saddam has done exactly as he has appeared to have done over the last 11 years, which is: develop his WMD programs while hiding, denying, obfuscating, deceiving and delaying by every means available to him.

What degree of certainty would you require, Andy, given the potential catastrophic results of the US or our allies being attacked with WMD, or considering the risks of Saddam being able to use nuclear blackmail in the fairly near future in the Middle East. Actually, in my estimation, requiring 90% certainty is way too rigorous under these circumstances. I don't get it--our national security is potentialy threatened by a Stalin incarnate with a ruthless and bloody history both in his own country and against his neighbors, who OBVIOUSLY has been working on the same damn WMD programs THAT HE WAS WORKING ON BEFORE he expelled the UN inspectors, and people want PROOF of it? LOL--I'd lay 10,000 to 1 that he has been doing just this and I'd feel I was getting the best of any bet I could cover. But we shouldn't have to be that sure before taking pre-emptive action to disarm a "Stalin" who has a history such as Saddam's--and this "Stalin" has already called for jihad against the US, Israel and England with a full-page front page newspaper ad on Christmas Day a couple years ago.

Saddam could also have easily averted these problems by disarming rather than arming, obstructing and firing on coalition forces routinely in the no-fly zones. He's been given many miles and years of leeway when he should not have been given an inch or a day. aAll he's done with the leeway is divert humanitarian aid to hs WMD programs and thumb his nose at the US and the world while lying to everyone and murdering his political opposition--all the while building statues of himself at traffic intersections all over the country.

Anyone informed person who thinks OJ Simpson was probably guilty despite the verdict must surely think that Saddam has been working on WMD--I'd put the chance of OJ being innocent WAY above the chance that Saddam stopped building WMD after he kicked the inspectors out.

Yes, I'd like to see Bush offer more evidence to satisfy the liberals, and the uninformed, and the fools, and the milquetoast European masses, but it shouldn't be necessary. Saddam is easily 100 times more likely to have been working on WMD all along than OJ was likely to have committed murder--and the stakes are much greater here too--and waiting will only increase the chances that this mortal and ruthless enemy will be able to inflict more damage.

M (posting from a friend's computer)

10-06-2002, 09:40 PM
Given that Saddam was building chemical and biological weapons and was working on nuclear weapons development programs BEFORE he kicked the U.N. inspectors out (this much is known for sure): What then are the chances that Saddam stopped work on all his WMD programs AFTER he kicked the U.N. inspectors out?

10-06-2002, 09:51 PM
Yes, I posted the above question. Now add the revelations about Saddam attempting to purchase special tubing which is used in centrifuges for enriching uranium, add the defector scientist's assertations, add whatever else you might recall that has been publicized along similar lines, and guesstimate the chances that Saddam stopped working on his WMD programs after he kicked out the U.N. inspectors. If I'm going to buy a lottery ticket, at least let me have a chance of winning. Yes, I think there is ZERO chance that Saddam abruptly stopped work on all his WMD programs after kicking the inspectors out.

Heard on the radio today: a caller on a talk show said it's a good thing Gore wasn't President when 9/11 occurred,
because he would have disarmed us and sent them money;-)

M

andyfox
10-07-2002, 12:28 AM
"Bad guy to control a nuclear arsenal."

Care to name a good guy to do so? Eisenhower and Carter (and maybe Bush I) are the only presidents I can think of who might qualify. Truman was a bull in a china shop; I agree with your asseeement of Kennedy; Johnson was an egocentric, pathological liar; Nixon made him seem normal; Ford played too many football games without his helmet; Reagan, I'm sorry, was stupid before he was sick; Clinton--no comment needed, one would think; and Bush II is a combination of Ford and Bush I.

andyfox
10-07-2002, 12:39 AM
Before we start the first preemptive war in our history, I think our president owes it to us to make the case that our national security is so threatened. The fact that he is a liar and builds statues of himself is not relevant. No one doubts he's a ruthless tyrant. The leader of China is a ruthless tyrant,and has a much bigger arsneal of WMDs than Saddam; so is the leader of Cuba, much closer to home. What we need is for our leader to let us know why we are prepared to go to war, what the consequences of not doing so will be, what the costs of doing so will be, and what he foresees as the future of Iraq and the region if we go to war.

andyfox
10-07-2002, 12:43 AM
If some are looking for "100% solid evidence," it is bcause far too many times in the past, our leaders have presented "evidence" that was hogwash. And this is not a left/right issue; much of the hogwash was invented by Democrats and liberals.

Speaking for myself, I don't require 100% proof. If the streets are all wet in the morning, I can assume, without 100% proof, that it rained the previous night. But I want to make sure the streets are indeed wet.

andyfox
10-07-2002, 12:47 AM
I'd say zero. But I still want to know how this directly threatens our security to the point that we need to initiate a preemptive war.

andyfox
10-07-2002, 12:52 AM
The Gore comment is interesting. In our recent history (in my lifetime), most of the hawkish responses to international crises have come from the liberals, the Democrats. They were usually afraid of being labeled as pinkish or weak. On the other hand, the Republicans could get away with more liberal policies (for example, Nixon reestablishing relations with China). So, while I understand you quoted the radio caller with a somewhat tongue-in-cheek attitude, it could very well be that Gore's response would have been harsher than Bush's. Remember, Bush did not take immeidate action; rather he went about trying to make sure that the Taliban and Bin Laden were the responsible parties before taking retaliatory action.

HDPM
10-07-2002, 09:40 AM
Carter was not competent. He sometimes deliberately sent the football too far away. In Ga. he would not allow the guy with the football anywhere near him. This is a fact that would have been sniffed out by Soviet spies, and is a very dangerous one when your real national strategy is that of first strike capability. Johnson, Nixon, Ford, and Reagan were all better equipped. Eisenhower may have been the best in this regard as you point out. During his administration we had first strike capability and did not nuke the Soviets. Some of this may be due to intelligence failures, but I think Eisenhower declined a first strike on the basis of, GASP, morality. I will try to dig out my source for that at some point. But our nuclear strategy in those years was clearly to develop first strike capability.

10-07-2002, 04:31 PM
Good questions, Andy. It is harder to "prove" that Saddam necessarily *will* provide terrorists with WMD or *will* use them against us or his neighbors, than it is to know that he has been building them. Yet given his history and his call for jihad against us and the incredible death and destruction such weapons can wreak, I think we had better err, if we do err, on the side of precaution. Also, Iraq has had more than ample chances, for years now, to reverse its position on such weapons programs and avert such developments as they find themselves now facing.

What will happen if Saddam acquires nukes? Perhaps nobody knows for sure, and I for one don't want to find out. One thing is for sure: it will be more dangerous to attempt to disarm him by force when he has nukes than when he doesn't. It would also be folly to allow him the luxury of unlimited progress in arming over time. If unchecked, his history and character suggests that he will arm as much as possible, which eventually must seriously threaten our security and lives.

M posting from friend's computer (probably my last post for this week).