Pokey
03-18-2005, 02:19 AM
Hiya, folks. I checked through all the posts in this forum and couldn't see this exact question asked, so I figured I'd throw it out there for someone with super-stats skills.
Party Poker has a jackpot that they're testing out now. According to their rules (http://www.partypoker.com/news/badbeat.html), the following conditions must be met for a jackpot to be paid out:
1. Four or more players must be dealt into the hand.
2. <font color="red">The losing hand must contain four of a kind (8’s) or better to qualify.</font>
3. The BEST hand of <font color="red">the winner and the loser</font> must include <font color="red">both the hole cards</font> and the hand must go to a showdown.
4. The hand must be raked and jackpot contribution collected from the hand to qualify for a bad beat jackpot.
5. The Jackpot Contribution is collected from the pot as soon as the 1st rake is collected in the hand.
6. Jackpot contribution is collected only once during the hand and <font color="red">the value of the jackpot contribution is 50 cents</font>.
7. These contributions are added to the Bad Beat Jackpot till hit.
8. Every time the jackpot is hit, <font color="red">70% of the jackpot amount will be distributed</font> and 20% will be used as seed amount for the next jackpot. 10% will be retained by Party Poker as administrative fee.
Since the jackpot contribution is pulled along with the rake, we can think of this as adding $0.50 to the rake every time a rake is collected. Since the rake basically affects all players equally, we can think of this as each player chipping in their share towards the $0.50 each hand.
I'd say we can safely assume rules #1 and #4 are non-binding; if four 8's or better lose, there's going to be enough betting to get a rake. My question:
<font color="blue">Assume ten players get cards and go to the showdown. How large must the jackpot be in order for the player's expected jackpot value to exceed five cents per hand?</font>
Keep in mind that the expected payoff is going to be 7% of the jackpot's value for each player.
Given this number, we could then adjust it based on the odds that the hand will see a rake at all (which lowers your expected cost), the actual number of players in the hand (fewer players means lower chance of the jackpot hitting), and the (subjective) odds that a dealt jackpot hand will see a showdown (i.e., maybe 34s or pocket 5s won't actually call the flop UTG and therefore will miss their potential jackpot).
I think this would be a handy number to know when I'm deciding which tables to join.
Thanks a bunch for any answers you may be able to provide.
Party Poker has a jackpot that they're testing out now. According to their rules (http://www.partypoker.com/news/badbeat.html), the following conditions must be met for a jackpot to be paid out:
1. Four or more players must be dealt into the hand.
2. <font color="red">The losing hand must contain four of a kind (8’s) or better to qualify.</font>
3. The BEST hand of <font color="red">the winner and the loser</font> must include <font color="red">both the hole cards</font> and the hand must go to a showdown.
4. The hand must be raked and jackpot contribution collected from the hand to qualify for a bad beat jackpot.
5. The Jackpot Contribution is collected from the pot as soon as the 1st rake is collected in the hand.
6. Jackpot contribution is collected only once during the hand and <font color="red">the value of the jackpot contribution is 50 cents</font>.
7. These contributions are added to the Bad Beat Jackpot till hit.
8. Every time the jackpot is hit, <font color="red">70% of the jackpot amount will be distributed</font> and 20% will be used as seed amount for the next jackpot. 10% will be retained by Party Poker as administrative fee.
Since the jackpot contribution is pulled along with the rake, we can think of this as adding $0.50 to the rake every time a rake is collected. Since the rake basically affects all players equally, we can think of this as each player chipping in their share towards the $0.50 each hand.
I'd say we can safely assume rules #1 and #4 are non-binding; if four 8's or better lose, there's going to be enough betting to get a rake. My question:
<font color="blue">Assume ten players get cards and go to the showdown. How large must the jackpot be in order for the player's expected jackpot value to exceed five cents per hand?</font>
Keep in mind that the expected payoff is going to be 7% of the jackpot's value for each player.
Given this number, we could then adjust it based on the odds that the hand will see a rake at all (which lowers your expected cost), the actual number of players in the hand (fewer players means lower chance of the jackpot hitting), and the (subjective) odds that a dealt jackpot hand will see a showdown (i.e., maybe 34s or pocket 5s won't actually call the flop UTG and therefore will miss their potential jackpot).
I think this would be a handy number to know when I'm deciding which tables to join.
Thanks a bunch for any answers you may be able to provide.