good god, it hurts. new personal worst

[johnnycakes]

http://www.houseofillusion.com/images/poker/pain.gif

So, should I hit the $1K Max NL tables now?

[disjunction]

I don't think your win rate is sustainable over the long term.

[tubalkain]

Good God, you're horrid.

I think you'd actually make more money bankrolling me.

[GemiNiveK]

Raw stats look great...I'd love to look through the HHs and see what the Hell really happened there!

~K

[pokerjo22]

I dunno, the W$SD don't look too great!

[GemiNiveK]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, the W$SD don't look too great!

[/ QUOTE ]

As if he had a LOT of bad beats...suckouts.

[ArthurD]

I'm going to hijack, as I had a truly awful day, too. Not quite as bad as yours, but relatively speaking, pretty bad.

http://www.rakebackrus.com/backup/stats.jpg

Now I realize that W$SD is EXTREMELY low, I was probably calling down far too often, but I was having some AWFUL suckouts as well. Won $ WSF is low, as well, is this a 'running bad' indicator? What else is ugly here?

I tweaked my VPIP up a bit, lately, as it was 18% at first, then for some reason I tightened up for a month and it killed my win rate, and then this month I went back to looser play, possibly too loose? Unsure. Sometimes I feel like my game changes a lot from day-to-day for no reason. I really can't pinpoint it, it's just a general feeling I get. Mostly on how aggressive to be, I suppose, and when to raise the second and bottom pairs on the flop OOP. Hmm.

Any help appreciated. If anyone is willing to look over my hand histories I'd be willing to pay someone a bit for some assistance, but not a ton. Any advice is still appreciated, though. Thanks.

[GemiNiveK]

Your PFR% is a tad bit low and with 19.3% VPIP I'd guess you're playing a few too many hands. What's your post-flop aggression factor? What's your call% on the flop? (hit the More Detail... button to get this info). I think that might tell the story, but again, 1,000 hands isn't a very big sample size.

[stinkypete]

i'm down somewhere around $6000 in my last 3 days of play. isn't poker just awesome sometimes?

[ArthurD]

Heres the stats you requested! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

http://www.rakebackrus.com/stats2.jpg

[GemiNiveK]

Assuming you're 10-handed most of the time, those stats actually look great. So, I'm guessing that the sample size isn't really enough and you just had a lot of nasty beats. But it's also possible that you have several hands that you are playing incorrectly or otherwise missing value and had those hands several times. OR (there's always another "or") it's possible you didn't adapt your play style appropriately for some of your table conditions. This is easy to do if you're playing several tables or otherwise not taking the time to get a good read on the other players.

I've gone 3,000 hands and thought I was playing great for the most part only to lose 100BBs. Then the next 3,000 hands I didn't play any better/worse and earned 200BBs. Variance is strange that way, especially as you find more tables with loose-aggressive players.

I could look through your hand histories if you like but I can't say that I really feel qualified to give you much advice...

~K

[GemiNiveK]

Would you mind posting your aggression stats like ArthurD did? I'm interested...

~K

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
19.3% VPIP I'd guess you're playing a few too many hands

[/ QUOTE ]

This is definitely not the problem.

[theblitz]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, the W$SD don't look too great!

[/ QUOTE ]
A question I have always wanted to ask:
What are considered decent values for:

PFR% (mine is around 4%)
W$SF (26%)
Went to SD (20%)
W$SD (53%)

These are for NL - lowish end.

[johnnycakes]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, the W$SD don't look too great!

[/ QUOTE ]

No joke.
A lot of hands like this is why:

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (13.66 SB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (9.83 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, UTG folds.

River: (11.83 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 19.83 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Ah Ac (three of a kind, aces).
Button has 4d 2d (straight, six high).
Outcome: Button wins 19.83 BB. </font>

My overall WtSD% is 30.61 and my overall W$SD is 59%.

Also, over the 1152 I ended up playing I got a little less than my "fair" share of big pocket pairs:
AA 3 times won once
KK 2 times won zero
QQ 3 times won once
JJ 7 times won four
TT 4 times won zero.

I lost money with every pair grouping overall for a total of -$891.

Also, I don't have a way to verify, but it seemed like almost none of my OES and flush draws ever hit. So frustrating.

[Monty Cantsin]

I'm confused.

It looks like you're down less than 150 BB. Am I missing something? What are all these responses about?

/mc

[johnnycakes]

[ QUOTE ]

It looks like you're down less than 150 BB. Am I missing something? What are all these responses about?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's my biggest one session downswing, and it hurts, and this is cathartic.

I apologize if you are able to lose more on a daily basis and my chip spewing ability doesn't impress you.
/images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[AustinDoug]

Why in the world would you raise that flop when UTG is betting in to you?

[frank_iii]

Wow, the rake's not too bad at $15/$30. I think I paid close to that at $2/$4 last night in ~1000 hands.

[johnnycakes]

[ QUOTE ]
Why in the world would you raise that flop when UTG is betting in to you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I remember this hand well, for obvious reasons, and my raise was a misclick. I was ready to click "bet", but UTG bet, yet I was already clicking "bet" which resulted in "raise".

Anyway, you gotta play 'em fast when your opponents yet to act could have hands as strong as 24 soooted.

[pokerjo22]

Boy, I hope there's some high-level sarcasm going on over the top of my head.

[jtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Boy, I hope there's some high-level sarcasm going on over the top of my head.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol -- thank god you said this. I am not a limit player so didn't know whether to take the exchange seriously, but I am with you on this.

[johnnycakes]

[ QUOTE ]
Boy, I hope there's some high-level sarcasm going on over the top of my head.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Actually, I remember this hand well, for obvious reasons, and my raise was a misclick. I was ready to click "bet", but UTG bet, yet I was already clicking "bet" which resulted in "raise".

[/ QUOTE ]

Not scarcarsm. 90% of the time I play my sets fast, but if there's ever a board to slow play a flopped set on, it's this one. Preflop UTG raised, then I 3-bet. What kind of possible draw could he have? None. I'm not worried about getting sucked out on. Same goes for the button, who cold called three bets. I obviously underestimated his donkeyness.

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, you gotta play 'em fast when your opponents yet to act could have hands as strong as 24 soooted.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, scarcasm.

[pokerjo22]

[ QUOTE ]
Not scarcarsm. 90% of the time I play my sets fast, but if there's ever a board to slow play a flopped set on, it's this one. Preflop UTG raised, then I 3-bet. What kind of possible draw could he have? None. I'm not worried about getting sucked out on. Same goes for the button, who cold called three bets. I obviously underestimated his donkeyness.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see. Although the way you actually played the hand makes it look like an isolation raise, and then trying to protect a hand (like a pocket pair). Cold calling and raising the turn makes it obvious you had the ace. Given the donkey in there though you may as well raise for value on the flop.