Reverse Leak?

[Stretch002]

Hello everyone,
Firstly, thanks for all of the terrific information everone seems to post. Although I do not post often I read the forums daily.

I am wondering if I may have a reverse leak. Instead of losing chips via poor hand selection, I think I am failing to extract chips from my opponents when I have the opportunity.

I will occasionally value bet on the river but I am wondering if I am giving my opponents too much credit for hands that they MAY have. Below is an example from last night.

Although I usually fold this hand from this position, I elected to try and limp in knowing I would fold to a raise pre-flop.

In this case I was afraid that one person MIGHT have the Queen or Jack along with a suited random card since I am playing on the 10+1 Party SNG's...these guys seem to call with anything. Would you have played this hand differently? Any tips or insight would be appreciated!



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 (t1025)
UTG+2 (t705)
Hero (t770)
MP2 (t345)
MP3 (t600)
CO (t955)
Button (t535)
SB (t895)
BB (t1475)
UTG (t695)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t120) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t30</font>, MP3 calls t30, SB folds, BB calls t30.

Turn: (t210) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks.

River: (t210) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t30</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t100</font>, MP3 calls t100, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t170</font>, Hero calls t70, MP3 calls t70.

Final Pot: t720

[Scuba Chuck]

First of all, I think your river play is fine. As there is a minimal probability the villain(s) has a full house. Second of all, the probability that your opponent has a flush when the board has 3 flush cards, and you have two is like 5%. IMO, in SNGs, you just have to go broke assuming you've got the only flush. By the way, you may have the best hand, but you do not have the nuts here.

Finally, I think your preflop call is poor. That's your most glaring leak here.

[curtains]

I don't like the preflop call, I don't know why you checked on the turn? Your opponents have said they have something by calling you on the flop. Why not charge them money to call with their "something".

Usuaully when someone calls on an AK flop, they have an ace or a king, both ofwhich will likely pay off a reasonable sized turn bet.

[sofere]

PF call is real bad. On the flop, out of position...check. Turn...why would you try and build the pot on the flop if your not gonna bet out here. River...I have no problem with your line.

Thats enough ellipses for now.

[EarlCat]

[ QUOTE ]
Finally, I think your preflop call is poor. That's your most glaring leak here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is limping with a suited connector really so bad while the blinds are still small? Is this bad because of his position or bad regardless?

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Finally, I think your preflop call is poor. That's your most glaring leak here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is limping with a suited connector really so bad while the blinds are still small? Is this bad because of his position or bad regardless?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's lousy because of early position. The time to limp suited connectors is iwn late position with other limpers in front of you, so you get better odds to hit a monster.

[microbet]

The bet of 30 on the flop doesn't do anything. You have two checks before you and a weakly played preflop, so if you are aggressive here and want to make a semi-bluff that is one thing, and if you want to check/fold when you most likely have the worst hand that is fine too, but why bet 30?

On the turn, bet. An ace will call, a king will probably reraise you big, and a Q, J or even lower lone diamond may call too.

I would be surprised if he has a full house. It is probably worth taking a chance that he doesn't have a better flush. If you push after his reraise he will definately call with a lower flush, probably with a King and maybe even with an ace.

Preflop I would fold, but I don't think it is horrible. If you are going to take chances with drawing hands like this, I think you have to follow through and make them really pay when they hit. 9Ts has the problem that the flush draw isn't always the best one out there, but with the AK out on the board it looks a lot better.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't like the preflop call, I don't know why you checked on the turn? Your opponents have said they have something by calling you on the flop. Why not charge them money to call with their "something".

[/ QUOTE ]

Added to this is the fact that a check/call looks more suspicious when a third flush card falls than a standard bet-out. (The opposite applies to a 4th flush card.)

Also, your flop bet is too small. A minbet has close to 0 folding equity here, and you don't have a made hand to value-bet yet. You're betting into 2 other players. If you're not willing to bet at least 1/2 the pot, just check.

[microbet]

Right, but in the $11s some tables get limpitus and you can really expect nothing but a lot of limps after you.

On tables that have the crazies you wouldn't even want to limp from the button with this hand, unless the blinds weren't part of the craziness.

[edit: hey, what makes me think it is an $11?]

[EarlCat]

[ QUOTE ]
Right, but in the $11s some tables get limpitus and you can really expect nothing but a lot of limps after you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this is more what I was thinking. Yeah, its bad position, but I don't think I'd lose sleep over throwing 30 chips at suited connectors.

[curtains]

I fold this T9s preflop, and I believe I'd play it more profitably than you postflop, at least based on the knowledge of this hand. This leads me to believe you should fold.

[lastchance]

Fold preflop, check the flop, bet the turn, river play is fine.

[microbet]

Just to be clear, as I said in my response to OP, I would also fold preflop.

Although, if playing it well would increase my ROI, I would want to try even if I might end up making mistakes.

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
The bet of 30 on the flop doesn't do anything. You have two checks before you and a weakly played preflop, so if you are aggressive here and want to make a semi-bluff that is one thing, and if you want to check/fold when you most likely have the worst hand that is fine too, but why bet 30?



[/ QUOTE ]


Even microbet does not like the microbet on the flop..

[REL18]

One can tell who a new poster is. Comments such as u wont lose sleep over 30 chips what is that if u do it 500 times u lose a lot more then 30 chips on a bad play you need to be way tighter im sorry maybe im too tight i dont call that on bottom if there arent someting liek 5 or 6 limpers in front of me.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess this is more what I was thinking. Yeah, its bad position, but I don't think I'd lose sleep over throwing 30 chips at suited connectors.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget you're open limping in middle position, which makes things even worse in this case.

Spending 30 chips on suited connectors early on in the game hoping to flop big is not a big deal... but you can't do it repeatedly or it adds up. Also, do it when you have advantages like position to facilitate things post flop.

[Stretch002]

Thank you all for the wonderful responses. I am definitely learning. Usually I fold a hand like this pre-flop but for some reason limped in this time. I suppose you could say I had to call since they were SOOTED! LOL (just kidding)

Great advice all around. In retrospect I am not sure why I did not bet the turn....

thanks to all of you I have learned:

1. Fold this pre-flop unless in late position with lots of limpers

2. Do not value bet on the flop unless I actually have a hand!

3. Bet on the turn to make the drawing hands pay and to add to the pot even if it makes someone fold.

4. Itis okay on the river to bet small if I fear someone may have a full house or a higher flush.

The results of the hand were that both callers had trip Kings and my flush held up to win. Thanks again for your help everyone. Wow I love this game!

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (t120) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t30 </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

With one less opponent, my default play on a flop like this is to bet around t80 - so long as I have outs to beat top pair. My logic is that I will take down the pot unless an Ace or King is out there. Is this wise, early in a £10+1 ?

[SNOWBALL138]

the thing you have to remember with drawing hands is that the times you call and don't hit tend to add up to a lot. A lot of the time when you flop a monster, no one plays you off.

So, the odds are against you hitting, and they are against to getting paid off. Does this mean you shouldn't play drawing hands? No, but it does mean that unless you are playing in a DEEEEEEEEEP stack NL hold em game, you cannot play them in bad position with no callers in front of you.

In STTs the blinds are shallow even from the beginning. I don't have pokertracker stats to back this up, but I can't imagine that set value is nearly as high as people think. I tend to fold 22,33,44,55,66,77, to a standard 4x BB raise unless I am in position with cold callers in front of me.

Assuming you won, Whats your net on this hand? Like 400? How often do you think you will net that on 10-9 suited in this spot? I doubt its 30/400 times.

[TheAmp]

[ QUOTE ]
the probability that your opponent has a flush when the board has 3 flush cards, and you have two is like 5%. IMO, in SNGs, you just have to go broke assuming you've got the only flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with your thinking here, chuck.

The question is not what "the probability that your opponent has a flush when the board has 3 flush cards, and you have two...", but what is the prbability he has it GIVEN HIS BETTING. You are not playing versus a random hand, but against someone who has a reason to stay in the pot (and raise). One obvious reason with such a board could be a flush hand.

[EarlCat]

[ QUOTE ]
One can tell who a new poster is.

[/ QUOTE ]

And you are?

[EarlCat]

[ QUOTE ]
Spending 30 chips on suited connectors early on in the game hoping to flop big is not a big deal... but you can't do it repeatedly or it adds up. Also, do it when you have advantages like position to facilitate things post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, and I wasn't suggesting doing it repeatedly--everything in moderation. Even still, an early position limp while the blinds are still small isn't the end of the world. I don't mind giving a little action early because if I play too tight early on that reputation keeps me from getting any action later on. Also, if you're lucky enough to take it down it makes for some good advertising.